It was absolutely not just social media ban, it was mostly youth protesting against the corrupt government and unfairness, social media ban was one element that was against the freedom of speech, but it was right around the time where everyone was documenting the rich politicians, their business connections and their families that have been living lavishly and just inheriting the election seats from generation to generation and spinning beurocracy to their sides.
I was there a few hours ago. It was a class struggle, but it was bound to be spun up as "kids don't get facebook and throw tantrum".
The corruption is simply incredible. About fifteen years ago I found myself in Kathmandu after getting altitude sickness. The team's fixer brought me to lunch with some government officials. The topic of discussion? How to steal from a hydroelectric project. One of his guests outright asked, "should we be talking about this in front of this guy?" The fixer shrugged it off saying "he's a Westerner, what is he going to do about it?" And, well, he was right. It wasn't like I could go report it to the police.
You don't know how incredible the corruption is. It goes from all levels. From president and prime minster to all the way down to a lowly clerk in your local government office. Nothing works without bribes. The big heads are raking out millions. I left the country only a few years ago. It is the sole reason I never want to be back there.
The desperation from the youth is so heart breaking when there is no jobs creation, no industry. Depending on their ability they go and work in middle east doing all those dangerous work in the desert heat. The country is empty of youth. If you go to the airport you will see thousands leaving the country each day. Coffins of workers who died in middle east.
The political parties? They are profiting for everything. In the last 10-15 years there were basically 3 guys who would become the prime minister in round robin always blame opposition when in government and always blame government when in opposition. Its like 1984 but without the surveillience but that also caught up with the ban of social media.
I was flying from Kathmandu to Bangkok in 2000 and I couldn't book a ticket on the plane until the day it flew as 'half the plane' was reserved for 'Government Officials' 'just in case'. Amusingly they were all on one side of the plane too, the side that can see Mount Everest during the flight.
People really don't have an understanding of just how destructive this kind of corruption is. Extorting the current businesses is only the direct effect.
The longer term is literal desolation. People simply do not start business as time goes on so there is nothing to exploit as time passes. Business that exist simply don't operate in that country anymore so there is not even anything to buy if you have money. Then the violence and enslavement starts.
People do which is why when a police officer that asks for money during a traffic stop is told to fuck off in a Western country.
Smart people did this math as far back as the 19th century.
You used the word "always", the person I responded to didn't.
> I was flying from Kathmandu to Bangkok in 2000 and I couldn't book a ticket on the plane until the day it flew as 'half the plane' was reserved for 'Government Officials' 'just in case'.
The "just in case" sounds like speculation to me so all it sounds like is the flight they were on was reserved.
I believe the implication is that those seats would in fact be available to you if you knew who to bribe. And the fact that they were all on the Everest-facing side of the plane suggests that whoever controlled those seats realized that they could get a premium for them.
Also, (speculation warning) it could be the government paying for airline seats to "keep them available" is a kickback. That is, lobbyist paying government officials for a contract that is not needed.
One of my college friends is a documentary filmmaker. He dragged me along as he followed a group of glaciologists up to a high-risk melt lake in the Himalayas. Somewhere above 16,000 feet I got altitude sickness and headed back to Kathmandu ahead of the group.
I got stuck in the city for two or three days waiting for my flight, under the supervision of the team's local fixer. This guy had his finger in every pie: tourism, automobile importing, etc. I wound up at lunch with him because his assistant wasn't available to play tour guide.
Edit: I'll add that I got lucky getting sick. Shortly after my flight out a large earthquake struck, stranding the rest of the group in the Khumbu for nearly a week.
It's not terribly unusual to end up with random government officials if you're a white guy going into a non-touristy part of the 3rd world. I went to a village in Paraguay, first thing locals did was take me to some government project creating an industrial cow milking operation where I was promptly offered an engineering job.
Low-level 3rd world officials love showing off whatever they're doing to whoever will listen. They usually don't have much else to do. It is best to accept their offer and drink the tea with them or whatever, get on their good side and talk about how modern their little village is, and get on their good graces.
Here in East Africa some people tell me that it should be easy to find a job for me, but I must be talking to the wrong people. Not lamenting, just sharing how different the experience can be...
Not just there (waves at East Africa, where I used to live).
I live in New York (Long Island). People are constantly telling me that I should be having jobs thrown at my feet, considering my skills and track record.
That was not the case, which is why I'm retired.
If I were an inexperienced young buck, living in Brooklyn, that might be the case, but not for an old expert, out on The Island.
It's likely that it's difficult to get capital in East Africa. I knew many very smart, educated people, when I lived there.
On Long Island, it's easy to get capital for non-tech stuff, but tecchies are kind of ghetto, out here.
Just a guess but "east africa" while refusing to name country likely means someplace that theoretically you can wire money to, but in practice the AML control will start flagging like crazy and you get all your account shut down for even trying and no US based employer is going to touch with a 10 foot pole. If it were someplace like Kenya they would say, I'm guessing it's more like Somalia or Eritrea.
It was close to "New Italy" (in Spanish), somewhere within 50 miles of Asuncion.
I don't know much about Agriculture Engineering but there were a bunch of big milk vats, a couple electricians, and then a bunch of officials sitting around drinking the cold Yerba Matte stuff.
I assume they brought me because they heard I was an electrical engineer and I saw they were wiring the place up.
Just an add to what has been said. This might be because they heard you are an electrical engineer. I really don't know your qualifications, but here (in Paraguay), electrical engineering is a different degree than electronical engineering.
You might be versed in electronics as your primary field, but since they heard you are an electrical engineer, they thought you could check out the facility's electrical wiring setup.
Thus, if you do mainly electronics, you might want to present yourself here (in Paraguay) as an electronics/electronical engineer.
Yes I was totally unqualified for what they were doing.
Also pretty big language barrier because my Spanish is pretty bad. And Guarani, forget it.
I could probably "fake" it enough to do it now, but not back then.
They were extremely nice though and it was cool to check out a farming project. I would have liked to see some of the more remote farms but never got around to it.
Paraguay felt very much to me like the midwest / "Iowa/Ohio" of South America. Extremely practical hidden gem that is easily overlooked, but makes you feel right at home. Even in Asuncion I felt quite safe. Seems like the country is very active in fostering getting agricultural investment and development.
> Paraguay felt very much to me like the midwest / "Iowa/Ohio" of South America
Funny that you say that. I am by no means a countryside person, I'm as urbanite as any other. But while I never was in Iowa or Ohio (save for a short layover), I lived in West Michigan, and therefore in the Midwest, for some time; and yes, despite the climate being quite different, things seemed somewhat familiar to me in many aspects.
> I assume they brought me because they heard I was an electrical engineer
Yeah, that adds up. Small cities in South America usually have difficulty attracting qualified people to work there. It's a bit better now than it was 10 years ago, though.
I mean, it's not an uncommon job. Hasn't everyone hung out with a "government official" at some point? Even the people who work the counter at the DMV are government officials, technically. (And are perfectly capable of engaging in corruption, if there is insufficient oversight.)
It doesn't sound like the parent commenter was having lunch with the president. Just some random bureaucrats overseeing a construction project.
I think its quite something that we all waste our time over divisions like left/right, capitalism/socialism, woke/not-woke when in practice; this is the only division that matters. Those who are trying to follow the rules and make the nation better, and those that are only active for their self-interest.
There’s an interesting book “What is Wong with the World”, which points out that despite everyone agreeing that things are broken and people should unite to fix them, there are many competing visions for what “fixed” looks like, and this is been the source of much of the contention.
While I agree there is contention about "what's wrong", there's a bit of a difference between "I should put government money into my pocket" and "I think local district zoning laws need reform".
I believe OP is saying the most fundamental thing is people working in government acting moral and in the interest of the country, and not using the power position for self enrichment or engaging in petty corruption for social gain. If you have that then it doesn't matter if your system is capitalist or socialist or a bunch of competing variations where no one agrees. The outcome will always be severely hampered by their constant interference in business, plundering of tax money, and repression of dissent.
Most people probably universally agree on the topic of corruption, unlike economics or social policy. But it requires a well designed political system and a strong culture, which is difficult to do retroactively.
In poor countries everyone lives in a scarcity mindset, even the ultra rich. It's a lot like the supernatural stimulus that makes humans crave junk food and sugar. Some indian communities are prone to obesity because storing as much fat as possible was the only way to survive in the famines that happened under the british rule. Only people whose bodies could do that survived.
This sounds nice until you think more closely about the framing implicit in “follow the rules and make the nation better”. Who makes the rules and defines what is good for a nation?
sorry, "rule following" is possibly a sub-optimal language choice. I more mean the sort of selfishness that leads to corruption. Those who see their turn in government less about directing the nation and more as their turn to line their pockets and abuse their power.
I think there is broad consensus that too much poverty is a problem, and (perhaps somewhat less broad) that therefore too much wealth inequality is a problem. I think there's fairly broad consensus that college costs are a problem, that healthcare costs and access are a problem. I think there's a fair consensus that fixing these things would make the nation better.
Then you get to "how do we fix them?" and all consensus disappears.
As for the rules, it seems pretty clear to me that "the rules" are the Constitution and the existing law, plus the rules on how to pass or repeal laws.
But this framing also misses one category: Those who think that they should break the rules to make the nation better. I think that they are misguided at best and lying (either to others or to themselves) at worst.
Why misguided? Because preserving the rule of law is a really big deal. Even if they have the best of intentions, once they knock the law down flat and pave a road over it, they won't be the only one to drive on it. Tyrants try to build that road; if it's already there, the tyrant's job becomes much easier and much harder to stop.
So I oppose such tactics. It doesn't matter whether they are well-meaning or not. Even if the person doing them will never be a tyrant, the next person who wants to be a tyrant will find the door wide open.
I see another problem with rules, that being the little rules that were put in place to solve some social issue at a time and are now out of place but waiting to be used as a stick on someone who's a burden on the establishment. It's hard to look forward when you're always looking over your shoulder.
We need a github for law makers, the law needs PRs with documentation for the reason the law needs changing, and links to the research that brought a conclusion. And tests to make sure the law isn't unfairly impacting an unintended audience. Or just having a negative impact in general.
Majority opinion can look like consensus. And yet things like wealth inequality make for an uneven distribution of opinion where the minority end up having the most votes in effect.
Exactly. The problems with both governments and corporations come from when individuals working for them are able to act "above the law", and get away with things that if done by a solitary, poor person would land that person in jail. In a truly just society nobody would be above the law.
That's probably a healthy way to see things. Ideally all people that are actively working to create or improve should be on the same "side" against those that are destructive. The second order conflict then becomes what the rules are, and how we guide that side. That is, I think, where most of the factionalism historically plays out. It does feel like we're regressing to fighting that first order conflict more often now though.
In reality, it may be more complicated than that though. Most people don't see themselves as destructive, they just have a very different view of what the right rules are and what ought to be done to progress things. That can appear destructive from the outside.
> Most people don't see themselves as destructive, they just have a very different view of what the right rules are and what ought to be done to progress things. That can appear destructive from the outside.
I think that's partly true. e.g. pro life vs pro choice I can see both sides pushing for what they think is right.
Some people though do bad things, knowing those things are bad. But they do it anyways because it benefits them. So maybe it's not seeing themselves as being "destructive" per se, but at least not caring about the negative consequences to others.
I think tax cuts are possibly a decent enough proxy for this subject? While there's certainly a case to be made for tax cuts in very specific use-cases (e.g. where they're strangling demand/innovation/living costs/government-corruption/etc); a general belief in tax cuts is a constraint that makes it very hard to believe in society.
If you believe in tax cuts as a principle (i.e. 0% is a goal), then generally its hard to support government spending, which means its hard to support solving problems within your society, because doing so makes it harder to cut taxes. So with that in mind, I personally think people who believe in the Von Mises model of taxation (i.e. "all taxation is theft") are ideologically incompatible with any sort of society that tries to solve its own problems.
You seem to be assuming that government action is the best way to solve social problems. Is that really true or are there better approaches? I think government has a role to play but often it overreaches, causing negative second-order effects and wasting tax money. For example, in the USA government subsidized student loans were intended to make higher education more accessible to deserving low-income students. But in practice we now see a lot of students going to college who don't really belong there just because they can finance it, and much of the money goes into the pockets of useless administrators who contribute nothing to actual education. So naturally taxpayers are skeptical about turning over even more money to the government.
> You seem to be assuming that government action is the best way to solve social problems.
I would suggest that the context of government is superior than the context of the individual or localised groups in solving issues in a fair and just manner, as long as its institutions are well balanced. That's because it has a national perspective as opposed to a localised one. In practice there is a balance at play that is necessary, I think there is arguably a tyranny in only one of these two choices. The principal issue with giving up on the federal level is that minorities will be disadvantaged.
I think you are downvoted because your first sentence is misinterpreted, or the rest of your argument is not being read?
You are giving an example of a position and later on discussing the people who have this position as their first and main principle. Seems like a valid example to me, but perhaps people can explain why not.
Yeah, it's unfortunate. I disagree with this portion of the point he's making, but I don't see why people would treat it as not being valuable to the conversation at hand. I think it actually highlights the point of disagreement really well.
can you help me find a more poignant first-order disagreement to use? Perhaps my social democratic context is picking the wrong abstract in order to isolate a better platform of co-operation. In Europe we generally think that universal healthcare is somewhat of a given which sets up the context. In the UK at least (where I am from) belief in the NHS (national health service) is pretty much a political no-brainer.
I think you hit on it quite well with you statement about stealing public money in your parallel comment, which I generalized to simply "plundering the commons for personal gain". I have no idea why people would downvote the argument, but I think discussing that is generally frowned upon on HN.
I think this is a great example of a second-order disagreement.
How about people who genuinely believe in a minimal state? They often believe in charitable giving and local community organization, in my experience. Maximal civil society vs maximal government. A good example of this type is people who believe in the ideas laid out in Nozick's Anarchy, State, and Utopia. Even the more hard line Von Mises types are close to this. There are disgruntled people who are just asocial in that camp, like any other, but they are over emphasized by opponents just like every political group.
It would be very hard to argue that Nozick wasn't someone concerned with advancing society. The difference for that type is just a strong disagreement about how to do so. Painting them as first-order opponents is a mistake, I think.
> How about people who genuinely believe in a minimal state?
I agree that its technically a position but while that venn diagram may well include people who believe in charitable giving and local community organization its those who do not believe in those things (which I would argue constitute the majority of that position) who are the problem here. Even so, the idea that everyone gets to choose themselves what the issues are, belies a lack of unity and community that is close to what I'm trying to define. To respect society, one must give up an aspect of control.
Again, its not about tax in general, its the desire to get to 0% that is indicative of the sort of selfishness that defines the line I'm trying to draw.
> Painting them as first-order opponents is a mistake, I think.
You might be right. I think the bigger problem definitely are those who think stealing public money is ok to do.
> I agree that its technically a position but while that venn diagram may well include people who believe in charitable giving and local community organization its those who do not believe in those things (which I would argue constitute the majority of that position) who are the problem here.
I agree with your broader point. A hair to split is that I tend to see those "you leave me alone, I leave you alone" types as sort of side-line sitters. They're a neutral party who genuinely want to mostly opt out for one reason or another. I don't think that taking a stance of them either being with us or against us is healthy when there are so many genuinely destructive people.
> Even so, the idea that everyone gets to choose themselves what the issues are, belies a lack of unity and community that is close to what I'm trying to define. To respect society, one must give up an aspect of control.
Interesting. I'm curious what you mean here, as this could point a lot of different directions. Are you saying that you don't think individualism is healthy in general?
Do you mean that broad disunity and lack of alignment on societal values is dangerous? If so, I totally agree with that and wonder how it can be squared with modern multi-cultural pluralistic society. I don't, personally, believe in enforcing ideological conformity, but struggle to see how a society that doesn't believe in shared underlying mores can coordinate itself and have shared purpose.
> I think the bigger problem definitely are those who think stealing public money is ok to do.
No disagreement, and I think that's a good starting point. Those plundering the commons for personal gain are pretty clearly first-order opponents.
> I agree with your broader point. A hair to split is that I tend to see those "you leave me alone, I leave you alone" types as sort of side-line sitters. They're a neutral party who genuinely want to mostly opt out for one reason or another. I don't think that taking a stance of them either being with us or against us is healthy when there are so many genuinely destructive people.
I agree in principle, although there is a slight harmful component to it that I think is best described in defence (now WAR) spending. This is perhaps an element of taxation that most people do not see a direct benefit from, but in the scenario where they do suddenly need it, but don't have it, they lose absolutely everything. Its almost akin to the parental demand that a child eat its vegetables where the child doesn't see the point.
> Interesting. I'm curious what you mean here, as this could point a lot of different directions. Are you saying that you don't think individualism is healthy in general?
No, I think it is healthy but we also have to accept that we live in a society so that individualism must be tempered with a modicum of respect for others. We take much of this for granted, such as not murdering each other. Thankfully we are beyond the point where somebody takes to the air to decry their inability to arbitrary kill other people as some sort of government oppression.
I feel like part of the abstract of a more model citizen is accepting that sometimes society will do things that you don't necessarily agree with. For me there has to be some level of acceptance of this with arguments about ratios being entirely acceptable. I'm content for people to make that argument that tax cuts to 0.1% are okay if they result in the sort of growth where that 0.1% can actually cover the problem solving fund, but you have to accept that to some extent.
For example I live on the ground floor of an apartment block and would be insane for me to lobby our management firm to defund the elevator, which I partly pay for, despite never needing it. I accept that the elevator is part of my society of appartment block, despite it not directly benefitting me in the slightest.
I do agree that preppers/anarchists/von-mises are hardly the most destructive people out there, however their entirely individualistic attitudes do hold a parallel with those who think robbing the commons is ok. Especially since the whole "taxation is theft" idea creates a imbalance where robbing the commons is just redressing that balance. But I agree that we might be too zoomed in here to have the sort of impact we might hope for.
> I think is best described in defence (now WAR) spending
Yes, certainly. Security is actually the point "minimal state" (Nozick) crowd agree we need, which is why I pointed to them as opposed to the Von Mises hard liners. I see your point about the argument against this being harmful.
> I do agree that preppers are hardly the most destructive people out there, however their entirely individualistic attitudes do hold a parallel with those who think robbing the commons is ok.
Sure, I think I see the point you're making. I disagree with it partly, but it's a quibble and not really the point we're discussing, I think.
> I feel like part of the abstract of a more model citizen is accepting that sometimes society will do things that you don't necessarily agree with.
Yes, this is the heart of Social Contract theory. We agree we're going to give up some amount of control of our own lives and freedom in exchange for greater security and prosperity. Maybe that's a good lens to look at the original delineation we painted through. First-order opponents are violating that core Social Contract agreement by looting the commons. Second-order opponents adhere to the SC, but disagree with how we proceed within the agreement.
Rich vs Poor is the only division, and that happens when you allow for concentrations of wealth. So I would say capitalism vs socialism is the rich vs poor division as well.
It's not the concentration of wealth, it is the concentration of power. Communism doesn't solve that problem. The less centralized your power is the more efficient your economy works. Pushing decisions down to the edge means the people deciding how to allocate resources are the closest to the information about what is needed where. The problem with highly centralized economies is that as an economy grows beyond a trivial size it's impossible for the centralized system to manage the flow of information from the edges. It doesn't scale. Also, honest competition is good for optimizing your resource allocation, if someone is ultimately in charge of both sides they will be inclined to try to choose just one and "avoid waste", which ultimately is just avoiding optimization. This is also why companies become less competitive as they grow and are always under threat from startups and a big reason why antitrust is about more than just "protecting consumers". That's also why big companies are always lobbying government for protection of their business models.
> It's not the concentration of wealth, it is the concentration of power.
Those are the same thing.
> The problem with highly centralized economies is that as an economy grows beyond a trivial size it's impossible for the centralized system to manage the flow of information from the edges. It doesn't scale.
That was true a few decades ago. Now with everyone having a smartphone in their pockets at all times and the amount of computing power we have it should be doable. Still not easy for sure, but not impossible.
> Also, honest competition is good for optimizing your resource allocation
Think about how much non-productive work has to be done just to enable competition. Instead of one organization per industry we need multiple, all with their own overhead costs. Every company has to do their branding, HR, marketing, etc. The whole advertising industry pretty much exists only because companies try to get an edge with propaganda instead of improving their product. Wasted work.
Competition also forces companies to do unethical things. Say one company starts cutting down rainforests to get an edge over the competition. Now they're cheaper than other businesses, and every business that wants to survive has to start cutting down rainforest. One country gets rid of worker rights -> businesses move there and other countries must follow suit. Same with taxes.
hard disagree, many OG and influentual socialists came from rich backgrounds. There's also lots of poor people out there who are simply waiting their opportunity to be corrupt. Anecdotally I've experienced many people from working class backgrounds who are extremely proud of their tax evasion. The key dividing line is those who follow the rules and believe in the system and those that don't and are just looking out for their own interests.
This further explains corruption within socialist systems where everyone is effectively "equal" but some people are still looking out for themselves over everyone else.
The problem is when the rules are made to sustain and exacerbate the social divide, not to make the life better for everybody.
No need to go far, just look at the result of lobbying in the USA.
Btw, while there are many famines caused by despots (Stalin's, Mao's, Red Khmer's), there is also Bengal's famine of 1943.
One must also point out that China in the last 40 years have done perhaps more regarding the poverty mitigation than anybody else in the human history (capitalism, especially the wild one, has actually quite patchy record...)
The Chinese people did all of the work, their government simply allowed them, returning some of their own money in the form of state investment. Who pays for "state" investment?
The Chinese government did a lot of smart policies, empowering their people to unleash their entrepreneurial drive, helping them with targeted investment where that was deemed to get good long term/strategic payoff. This was not passive 'let them do what they want', it was (and still is) an actively guided process - there is enough information about that in the net.
It also failed in many ways, but overall influence is highly positive, the results speak for themselves.
Failing to see that is a sign of ideological blindness.
> The problem is when the rules are made to sustain and exacerbate the social divide, not to make the life better for everybody.
perhaps "rules" was a poor choice of word. What I meant was more a belief in society in general, a belief in the nation, in fairness. I guess in one-word: selfishness. I believe the _real_ political divide is between those who are selfish and those who are not.
still, ideological zealots really unselfishly believe in their case, whether that is fundamental christianity/islam/communism/capitalism (ok, maybe capitalism not, almost by definition, capitalism is about greed) and are willing to inflict unbelievable horrors in the name of their ideology
one should also not forget that there exist deep cultural differences and what is considered 'fair' and 'belief in society' is quite different e.g. between the western judo-christianism and eastern societies
Lobbying isn't used to exacerbate the social divide. It's used to achieve incremental policy wins and prevent incremental policy losses for the clients of the lobbyists. This is what the general public needs to do as well if they want the government to better represent their interests, but they have little interest in that. People willingly choose to exacerbate the social divide, and the overwhelmingly negative sentiment to lobbying is evidence of this.
Colonialism is a form of centralized planning, which catastrophically fails for the same reasons that it does in communist regimes.
China is evidence of capitalism's incredibly successful record of poverty mitigation. They've retained some communist style central planning, but the "bad" part of capitalism is unlimited accumulation of wealth, as mentioned upthread, which China allows just like any capitalist country.
Lobbying to create laws that benefit rich people/big corporations and make the life of ordinary people tougher directly exacerbate the socio-economic divide.
Telling the poor/weak to use the tools designed for rich/powerful is just obscuring the reality.
The reality being that the system is designed by rich, for rich, to maintain and improve their position.
"People willingly choose to exacerbate the social divide" What do you mean by that? People willing choose to be poor and powerless?
"Colonialism is a form of centralized planning" - no, colonialism (and neocolonialism) is a form of institutionalized looting, historically highly successful (see the graph of the GDP (as a percentage of the whole world GDP) of Great Britain vs India for a nice example)
No, the worst part of capitalism is unlimited accumulation of power, by the way of wealth buying/subverting the state. I suspect one of the reasons China was able to maintain its upward trajectory was their ability to separate the political power from the wealth (see the case of Jack Ma what happens if the wealth starts to impinge on political power in China). From the point of view of West, they did some highly questionable decisions that costed them trillions (squashing the blockchain miners, bursting property bubble, going hard after excessive gaming and internet time by kids) and would not be conceivable in the west, but overall might be net positive for the society at all.
> Telling the poor/weak to use the tools designed for rich/powerful is just obscuring the reality.
Lobbying is not a tool designed for the rich/powerful. It is literally just communicating with to politicians your interests. Corporations spend a lot on lobbying, but that's because they have to pay "corporate rates". Grass-roots organizations only need to pay for the basic expenses of their lobbyists. The NAACP successfully lobbied for multiple Civil Rights Acts with a much smaller budget than nonprofit organizations today.
> What do you mean by that? People willing choose to be poor and powerless?
Yes. People's reactions to corporations getting better at lobbying was to act like it's something only evil people do, so that they could feel better about themselves. As a result, grassroots lobbying has declined and knowledge of how to do so has been lost [1]. This is a gift to billionaires that they never could have dreamed of.
> institutionalized looting
Sure, but that is a central plan.
> No, the worst part of capitalism is unlimited accumulation of power
The CCP has unlimited power, which was why they could arbitrarily silence Jack Ma, without even formally accusing him of anything.
> by the way of wealth buying/subverting the state
This is a way bigger problem in China than the US. China does not collect enough tax revenue to fund its local governments, so many departments are essentially funded by corruption.
1.) "Lobbying is not a tool designed for the rich/powerful. It is literally just communicating with to politicians your interests. Corporations spend a lot on lobbying, but that's because they have to pay "corporate rates"."
Sorry, no. In other countries what goes as 'lobbying' in US would be mostly classified as blatant corruption of the politics. Citizens United also...
Corporations are centralized entities that have access to a lot of money and (also through money) to lobbying specialists with know-how hot to push their interests.
Normal citizens face and uphill struggle in every step - they have to get organized, get money, get specialists. This is not a level playing field, and the argumentation that it is, is exactly what those with an advantage engage in.
Shouldn't voting for the people who represent your interests be actually enough? What the lobbying does is that whoever you vote-in, if not already corrupted, will be corrupted by the lobbyists. So democracy (will of the people) is just a theory, wool over your eyes, similarly as communism was, the practice is totally different. People are waking up to that, and that's the reason for the rise of all anti-system parties all over the west.
2.) more grass-roots involvement: yes. Thinking that that is enough: hell no, people did that, got disillusioned when that repeatedly yields minimal results
3.) Colonisation of North America was not a central plan. You repeatedly bringing central plan just points to your ideological blinders.
4.) Ultimately, it is not about who has the power and where does the legitimacy of power come from, but how is that power wielded. Wield it to improve the lives of your citizens, you gain legitimacy even if you got the power in an illegitimate way. Wield it to enrich a narrow elite, at the expense of everybody else, and you will start to lose the legitimacy, even if you originally got it fairly. Nothing new there.
What is new is that the elites in China managed the country in a way that significantly improved the lives of its citizens, while the elites in the west managed their way into dystopian future ruled by mega-corporations, with melting middle class and unsustainable levels of debt.
This goes against the prevailing wisdom in the west that liberal democracies are the only ones capable of taking care of their citizens, while the authoritarian rest is just a cesspool of corruption and inept governance.
Other examples of authoritarian countries reaching (or at least starting in a significant way their path to) prosperity are Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan... (all of them were authoritarian at the time their economic boom started and progressed).
> In other countries what goes as 'lobbying' in US would be mostly classified as blatant corruption of the politics.
Sorry, but you have no idea what you're talking about. Every democratic country has professional lobbyists.
> Corporations are centralized entities that have access to a lot of money and (also through money) to lobbying specialists
Indeed the purpose of money is to purchase goods and services. That doesn't contradict anything that I said. My point is that you don't need a lot of money to lobby. There are plenty of people who are willing to lobby for just causes for their bare minimum expenses. Nowadays, people have forgotten it is even an option.
> Normal citizens face and uphill struggle in every step - they have to get organized, get money, get specialists.
Achieving goals requires investment and effort. Boo hoo. The demographic that frequents HN absolutely has the time and money to make meaningful changes in the world that they complain about, yet they act like they're helpless victims.
> Shouldn't voting for the people who represent your interests be actually enough?
For one, voters only care about vibes. They don't give a shit about policy. Mitch McConnell reassured fellow Republicans that voters would "get over" the Medicaid cuts. He may be evil, but he is good at what he does and is 100% correct here. This attitude goes across the political spectrum. The most popular politicians on the left (e.g. AOC and Sanders) have some of the weakest
Even in a best case scenario of an informed voter base, voting still isn't enough. Politicians and their dozen or so staffers can't be experts in every aspect of society.
> Colonisation of North America was not a central plan.
It's almost as if you brought up a famine in a different continent. Colonization of land and resources is different from the colonization of a people, which is central planning.
> Ultimately, it is not about who has the power and where does the legitimacy of power come from, but how is that power wielded.
> Capitalism has done more to overcome hunger and poverty than any other system in world history. The most devastating man-made famines over the past 100 years all occurred under socialism – in the 1930s alone, according to a range of estimates, between five and nine million people died in the Soviet Union from famines caused by the socialist collectivisation of agriculture.
> The end of communism in China and the Soviet Union was a major factor in the 42 percent reduction of hunger between 1990 and 2017.
It's impossible to say with any certainty that was down to an economic system change and not the myriad of other issues plaguing the Soviet states.
And maybe on balance hunger went down, but in particular for a whole lot of those Soviet states, the transitions from the failing "communist" state and the market-based alternatives was incredibly harsh and involved a whole lot of starving as the prices of food and other critical goods soared out of reach of Soviet citizens, not even going into the psychological effects.
Also also, insofar as "communism" "failed" (the USSR was incredibly authoritarian and corrupt, many communists and socialists take big issues with them or China for that matter being called communist but I digress), it "failed" alongside a host of economic sanctions brought upon it by it's Capitalist neighbors, utterly terrified at it's very existence. I mean Christ calling someone communist is still an insult in the United States, and an attack on a politician here too, decades after the Red Scare supposedly ended.
What sanctions? The USA and Canada literally sold huge quantities of grain to the USSR even during the height of the Cold War. Without those food sales even more Soviet citizens would have gone hungry.
> The end of communism in China and the Soviet Union was a major factor in the 42 percent reduction of hunger between 1990 and 2017.
This sounds like a complete BS. There were no starving people in the Soviet Union and its satellites after a brief post-war period. They had no luxuries all year round like exotic fruits, but the basics were covered. They had also vastly more educated population than the US. Just their governance and understanding of economics didn't consider the innate selfishness of humans and the need to dominate and outdo others so supply-demand laws didn't work well. China fixed that part later by allowing private corporate ownership and throwing its population into a Darwinian environment while keeping minimal social standards for the unlucky ones. North Korea, Cambodia and Laos would be the only "communist" countries where famines were still present.
In a socialist system you still need a government, which is a group of people who are empowered to enforce the rules of socialism. As a result, they end up having access to most of the collective wealth as well.
If they are very good socialists they will redistribute it all. If they are not-very-good socialists they will redistribute some of it and reserve some to support a nice lifestyle for themselves and their families. They won’t personally “own” mansions, airplanes, factories, etc. like capitalists do, but they still control them legally so the practical effect is very similar.
"As a result, they end up having access to most of the collective wealth as well."
Umm, it does not work like that, look at the Scandinavian-type socialism.
The collective wealth is in the functioning education & health system, social support net, working public transport and such. Not a type of wealth that the government can usurp for themselves, to the detriment/exclusion of the remainder of the society.
The problem with broad generalizations like that is you will make enemies of allies and allies of enemies, only you won't realize it and fail to understand why people aren't 100% behind your agenda. This is itself a form of corruption.
I can make a generalization that Nazis are bad. I want Nazis to be my enemies. I think we can all agree to that. Well, maybe not all of us, but I don’t mind if these enemies don’t see this and don’t become my allies. I don’t wanna be allies with Nazis.
But are you so anti-Nazi that you're committed to defeating Nazis that you're willing to overlook the transgressions of pedophiles and white supremacist as long as the help you defeat the Nazis? Or would you rather not align yourself with those parties while still trying to defeat the Nazis?
My point, which I think you misunderstood, was that making generalization will find you in bed with racists and pedophiles.
Yes, because all rules have been created for your own good, so you must follow without ever questioning them. The world is more nuanced than your silly black-and-white duality, unless it's a Twitter argument and it's all about dividing the world in convenient us-vs-them boxes.
Your account seems relatively new, so you might be unfamiliar with the rule to be charitable here. If you'd like to be snarky and lower the bar for discourse, Reddit is a much better place to do that (though ideally it would be kept out of public spaces altogether).
I think you're misunderstanding my point. Either you believe in the society you live in, or you don't. The story specifically speaks of people high up within that society that do not believe in it and are using their position to undermine that society in order to benefit themselves.. That, for me, is the #1 problematic archetype of person.
Its not just about the rules and if you follow them or not, its about the belief in turn-taking, in other people having the same rights as you, a belief that in society; everyone is important, everyone is mostly equal and that the society should be fair. Perhaps my phrasing could be improved? For the most part I am simply trying to define the difference between people being selfish and not.
> Either you believe in the society you live in, or you don't.
This makes GP even more correct. One can believe (and like) part of the society one lives in but not like other parts, or plainly think they are wrong and should be changed at all costs.
> One can believe (and like) part of the society one lives in but not like other parts, or plainly think they are wrong and should be changed at all costs.
Sure but I mean in terms of the abstract. The idea that those most successful may have to pay more in taxation, the idea that justice should be blind and that everyone deserves a trial. I guess the tipping point is when your belief in the part of society that are wrong are so extreme that you think its ok to undermine society (e.g. steal public money, push infront of queues, etc) in order to combat that "wrong".
Reminscient of Sri Lanka in 2022 (I was there). The lack of petrol and powercuts were the straw that broke the back of a camel that had been overburdend for several decades. Foreign "experts" and "analysts" trying to make sense of these events often sound either hilarious or condescending to locals who are living through them.
I was thinking exactly the same. I was not there at the time, but I have family there and have lived there.
It was amazing how many people who were not usually politically active joined the protests, and that they attracted support across racial divisions.
I think one of the problem with outside experts is that they try to reframe it in terms of the issues in their countries. For example, I have read articles trying to use Sri Lanka's excessive borrowing as a warning against modern monetary theory, which is either dishonest or incompetent - and I very much doubt the govt were even thinking in terms of MMT.
BTW I have probably met you at some point. I know Gehan from when i worked at Millennium (I was only there about an year).
Here's another example of what I mentioend in the grandparent post. Geopolitical misconceptions about West vs. China aside, the debt proportion held by China vs. ISB holders could have been easily looked up online.
Quite similar corruption is happening here in America! Donald trump made over $3.8B since getting into office this year, while tanking farming, jobs market, and foreign relations.
I put that number from the lower end, but actuals are closer to $10B, if all his corruption is totaled together. Just making himself great! The key is - when he points anything at others or asks to do something for country, it is actually about himself.
You can look up the figure pretty easily but from what I’ve glanced it seems to be related to his and his son’s crypto schemes, touted through official WH channels
1. As of September 2025, Donald and Melania Trump have launched several crypto-related ventures, including meme coins named $TRUMP and $MELANIA and digital asset firms.
2. He's a majority shareholder in Trump Media n Tech Co. Many have bought shares in that co just to please him https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/
3. The Trump family has launched several cryptocurrency ventures. An investment fund backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has made a $2 billion investment in a stablecoin issued by the Trump family's World Liberty Financial. This investment is estimated to generate about $80 million in annual interest for the Trumps.
4. Trump-branded properties are in development across the Middle East, including a golf resort in Qatar and residential towers in Dubai and Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. DAMAC Properties, a Dubai-based developer and long-time Trump business partner, also has ties to Trump-affiliated golf courses in Dubai and has announced major U.S. investments. Those deals were made during this year's trip.
When the dude's family is simultaneously launching and/or on the board of directors of many 'crypto' scams, while he is in office promoting the government owned use of crypto, its pretty much corruption of the first order.
The dude wouldn't even divest himself of his businesses, nor would he reveal his tax returns, both items which would go a significant way toward easing everyone's concerns. (well, maybe actually looking at the tax returns would make everyone a lot more concerned...)
And members of congress have their spouses just make totally legal stock market trades because they happen to be genius investors, don’t you dare suggest otherwise!
I'm frankly amazed that not a small portion of the population seriously believe that he's not corrupt and is genuinely trying to do what's best for the country. Many believe he's making a personal financial sacrifice in doing so. And this despite the mountains of evidence. I mean the man isn't even trying to hide it.
I'm not trying to be snarky here, just curious and seriously trying to understand the thought process. Not sure if I'll get a response here, but if we just take one example of trump coin and dinner invite for those bought a lot of it. How do you justify that? And if Biden or Obama did the same thing, launch their coin which they have control over while being president. Invite people that they can directly benefit or harm with their position to buy and hosts a person dinner for those that bought a lot of it, would you be as forgiving?
Fellow Nepali here. Corruption has always been blatant in Nepal, but in the past it was mostly limited to the monarchs and a small circle around them. With democracy, however, it feels like everyone in power has become corrupt. It’s reached a point where corruption is so normalized that people compare leaders based on the degree of their corruption, rather than whether they are corrupt at all. On top of that, the children of these politicians and officials openly flaunt their Gucci, LV, and Ferraris on social media—in a country where just one of their bags costs more than what an average Nepali earns in a whole year.
This is insane tbh. Although i think we should view every politician as corrupt and dirty by default lol i sympathize with nepal this sucks man. (Thanks for the reply btw)
The open plotting happens in western countries too, my friend. I have personally been witness to it. The irony is that the same reasons that were give for not "reporting" things is also similar to why things in the west are not "reported", albeit due to far more sophisticated and complicated reasons. Must I remind you of all the examples of "whistleblowers" who were not protected, not lauded and championed, sometimes not even respected by the public they were acting in the name of. I have personal knowledge of very similar types of circumstances where people have "whistleblown" and at best, as Snowden back then indicated, even the most gross violations simply just fall on "def" ears, which is more like simply inaction; with you only having identified yourself as someone moral or principled in a system that is inherently immoral and unprincipled.
Just take a look at the whole Epstein files situation. Not to be too acute about it, but how is it wild to you that plotting would happen in the "third world" when it happens right in your face in the heart of the world empire, openly defying all of the most core Constitutionally enshrined principles, and even daring you to do something about it and also proving how powerless you/everyone is to even look the cabal that control the world in the eyes, let alone depose them.
Well if you think about it the most effective corruption is the one not being "caught" which will most likely be going on in more sophisticated and developed countries i presume.
Maybe what is even worse in a way, is the state of many developed countries where all the coruption is well documented in media, everyone knows what is going on and yet it does not really move people. I guess until you are in "good enough" state you are not forced to really fight.
China and India are meddling in this. Nothing in Nepali politics happens without either China or India's hands or implicit blessing. Heck, regional Nepali politicans will literally vie for Nitish Kumar or Lalu Prasad Yadav's (the two perpetual CMs of Bihar) backing.
Even the Armed Forces(pro-India) and the Armed Police Force (pro-China) are at each others throats.
Whenever India feels Nepal is getting too close to China, a crisis happens. When China feels Nepal is getting to close to India, a crisis happens as well.
It's like how Iraqi and Lebanese politics is always meddled in by Saudi and Iran.
Also, the social media ban is extremely damaging.
Most students use Google and YouTube to study, and WhatsApp is heavily used by Nepalis both domestically and abroad (a large portion of Nepalis work abroad in India, the Gulf, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, and Japan as migrant workers) so people are cut off from communicating with each other and getting job offers.
> China and India are meddling in this. Nothing in Nepali politics happens without either China or India's hands or implicit blessing
Neither China nor India have so far meddled in this. It came as as surprise to both nations.
Also, neither China nor India control Nepal's social media. You would have to look at the yanks for that.
This is Nepal's self owned problem. Corruption has got entrenched into the system and you need fresh blood and a large number of hard-working politicians to fix these issues and make the government accountable.
We had many extensive corruption protests in India before the national BJP took over 15 years ago and Modi made bureaucrats accountable. Sadly, there has been some slacking after the initial years.
>WhatsApp is heavily used by Nepalis both domestically and abroad (a large portion of Nepalis work abroad in India, the Gulf, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, and Japan as migrant workers) so people are cut off from communicating with each other.
People need to start learning XMPP, cutting off of centralized services is only going to get worse.
I don't like comments like this, because while you're right that many people think everything happening everywhere is the CIA. The CIA (and US gov) _has_ been involved in an absurd amount of regime changes (that we know about). CIA involvement in something like this shouldn't be dismissed out of hand
If the CIA was even close to being that competent our foreign policy and intelligence wouldn’t be so horrible.
A lot of authoritarians just like to blame their self grown domestic problems on the CIA. China having another stock market crash? The CIA must have done it.
Yes and no. Very few contemporary governments are accusing the CIA of starting color revolutions, especially nowadays.
But historically there are definitely examples of the CIA achieving this. Iran's 1953 coup was overwhelmingly successful and a joint operation between MI6 and CIA. The consequences irrevocably tipped the balance of power away from Pan-Arabism and towards a globalist, American-driven order.
> CIA involvement in something like this shouldn't be dismissed out of hand
Without evidence, yes, it should be. Just as it should be dismissed, if proposed without evidence, that this was the product of Indian, Chinese or Iranian meddling. Particularly when we have credible evidence going the other way of legitimate reasons a population would flip out.
US with its control of social media etc can push a narrative to instigate population of friendly or unfriendly countries. There's no way to know say for sure whether the protests were organic or inorganic.
Every country has problems that atleast look worthy of an uprising. CIA has both the means and the track record of messing with countries, so its natural to be suspicious.
If Russia had control of social media narrative in US and wanted to cause trouble, nobody would know for sure if an uprising was due to their meddling or due to current political climate.
Lack of evidence doesn't prove or disprove anything.
Please go through the article I linked and find some 20th century examples. _at the time of the conspiracy_ there was no solid evidence of their involvement. That implies your method isn't actually a good way to be aware of the ones the CIA is _actually doing_ versus authoritarians coping for their own failures
When the CIA does something, we at the time don't know that the CIA is doing it (if they're doing it competently). That is true.
But run the experiment the other way. A friend of mine once said that if a light bulb burns out on Tierra Del Fuego, somebody claims that it's a CIA conspiracy. Of all the public claims (gated by some level of seriousness or authority) of CIA involvement, what fraction turned out to be true?
These entities are in the business—by their very nature—to lie and hide their activities as much as possible.[1] To dismiss speculation out-of-hand because it has no evidence is ludicrous.
[1] Not only that but to actively push counter-narratives.
Oh yeah, I saw it in India when Bangladesh fell. Couldn’t possibly be her incessant and well-documented corruption. I also think Barack Obama was somehow involved.
Corruption is endemic in many places, but somehow the chance of regime change is more correlated with unwillingness to follow the USA dictate than with corruption ....
Bay of Pigs wasn't a revolution, it was a failed invasion. The others, however, absolutely were instigated by the CIA.
You can compile similar lists for Iran, Russia, France and India. Reflexively dismissing every coup, much less protest, as the product of foreign involvement without evidence isn't thoughtful.
> Brigade 2506 (Brigada Asalto 2506) was a CIA-sponsored group of Cuban exiles formed in 1960 to attempt the military overthrow of the Cuban government headed by Fidel Castro. It carried out the abortive Bay of Pigs Invasion landings in Cuba on 17 April 1961.
Nepal has always been somewhat of a basket case. Remember when their prince went nuts and shot the royal family up? Then the whole country went through the wringer in the mid-00s.
Shame, it’s one place I really want to visit, but it seems like it will be a bit of a challenge (well, at least not Iran-level challenge, which is another place I want to visit someday and has different but even bigger problems).
I’m hoping the one in Indonesia and this one and others catch fire. The people are starting to realize where all the money is going in the world, straight up to the top.
KP Sharma Oli is pro-China which even Nepali media has pointed out [0]. And his formative years were spent growing up in a village (Garamani) barely 30 km outside Naxalbari during the Naxalbari Uprising, and attended secondary school barely 5 miles (Mechinagar) away from Naxalbari during the uprising.
In Nepali politics, Sher Bahadur Deuba is pro-India and Prachanda is pro-Prachanda (will back India some years, other years will back China).
The whole Indian internet conspiracy of "CIA ki saazish" is ridiculous when the US has barely 20 India scholars at all. There is 0 domain experience in India studies in the US, and that reflects in America's South Asia strategy (there is none).
Their scholars primarily specialize in the history of South Asia, not contemporary foreign relations and strategy in South Asia.
IMO, the only American program that has a good program in Contemporary Indian politics and foreign policy is Stanford, as Sumit Ganguly acts as the primary linkage between American and Indian policymakers, and the FSI and Hoover Institution tends to host Indian policymakers and career bureaucrats as affiliates and fellows. For example, during the US-India trade negotiations, the only public visit Nirmala Sitharaman and her staffers had was at the Hoover Institution [0]. Even the USIBC is hosted at Stanford, and that event has a lot of Indian and American dignitaries and policymakers coming.
Other than Christine Fair and a couple Pakistani fellows at HKS, I can't think of a similar domain experts on Pakistan either in the US.
If you want to study contemporary Indian foreign policy outside of India, your only options are NUS, ANU, Stanford, LSE, and maybe Oxford.
It's the same reason why the best China, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea scholars tend to be clustered at Harvard and Stanford.
I think what they means is dismissing the student protests as instigated by either India or China is doing a disservice to them.
And I agree with them - the ongoing protests are a result of anger against the political establishment's corruption - while thousands of Nepalis go abroad to work in the Gulf and India as menial labor, the political establishment's kids go abroad to America, Canada, and Australia to study, party, and live their best life.
My point was orthogonal to that - I'm saying that Chinese and Indian influence on the political establishment has been strongly entrenched.
Even Nepali media calls out Sharma's pro-China leanings and Deuba's pro-India leanings, and Prachanda's "paltu Ram" antics.
Classic removal of agency from real revolutions to avoid thinking critically about the real problems a country has, and instead blame a foreign boogeyman.
A favorite tactic of authoritarian regimes and the tankies that love them.
Yeah, it is similar to dismissing any information that contradicts the official narrative as 'conspiracy theory', without actually going the length to do actual real fact checking.
On the other hand, if a foreign country really wanted to destabilize you, can they do anything better than to exploit real grievances of the local population?
Knocking you over with military force technically destabilizes things far more than just existing grievances which may have gone off without their intervention at all. Perhaps more destabilization than they even want things to be.
> Knocking you over with military force technically destabilizes things far more
There are just as many examples of national identity being forged in war than there are it being removed.
For example, Russian-speaking Ukrainians in eastern Ukraine had no affinity for Kyiv and didn't think of themselves as Ukrainian before Russia invaded. Now they do.
It very much sounds like it; "grooming" and instrumentalizing the local younger generation's innate and legitimate frustrations for western (read: Israeli, British, and US "intelligence" cabal clowns) interests to foment instability and/or installing a more usable and pliable government. It smells of not only every moralizing "color revolution", but it is also an on-the-nose wedge between China and India (read: BRICS) called Nepal, if you look at the map.
The recent appearance of William van Wagenen on the Scott Horton Show was rather eye opening to me on some matters, even though I have been very well aware of these types of operations for many years now. For example, the "Arab Spring" that most people at the time thought was an organic citizen protest/uprising, but was clearly a clown cabal operation, has even deeper roots with position papers for many years prior clearly outlining the exact progression for how things would end up unfolding during the "Arab Spring".
It's definitely worth a listen, even if it may sound bewildering to people who have no real context for that world outside of the mainstream.
> It was absolutely not just social media ban, it was mostly youth protesting against the corrupt government and unfairness, social media ban was one element that was against the freedom of speech, but it was right around the time where everyone was documenting the rich politicians, their business connections and their families that have been living lavishly and just inheriting the election seats from generation to generation and spinning beurocracy to their sides.
You just gave a definition of "democracy". Thank you. /s
But you cannot ignore that aspect - addicts do get aggressive, even violent, when they don't get their fix. So they are indeed vulnerable and politically susceptible.
Young people also like to see if there is a way to have a better world, old people tend to keep the status quo.
While I'm sure the connection to technology and the Internet as a whole plays a role, but much more-so the gross and clearly corrupt government is the reason why they demonstrated.
No one is willing to die so they can just post on social media.
People go out of their way to control information.
Michael Shellenberger's site was blocked in Europe by the European Parliament after posting information for "The Twitter Files - France" which he's schedule to be testifying about to the House Foreign Affairs committee tomorrow.
Hard-earned freedoms are wasted on societies who don't have memories of what it took to earn them. Freedom is a ratchet: slides easily and frictionlessly one way, and offers immense resistance in the other.
I’m not aware of a single nation where the ratchet is loosening. It appears freedom is being eroded everywhere. The most disheartening thing is that nothing works to stop it. There are countries where millions of people have protested, but in time the protests always fizzle or are stamped out, and things continue on the same trajectory.
True! In fact, Augustus was the first to master that trick in Rome, he concentrated king like power in himself while carefully avoiding the title of "king" calling himself "princeps" instead.
It might not be on the national level, but we’re fighting over here in California to maintain/take back our gun rights. A court recently ruled that the state cannot require a background check for ammunition, we also got rid of the one gun a month rule recently as well. This progress gives me hope we still have so much more work to do re. privacy, property rights and freedom of speech!
We recently had a record-sized protest in Taiwan and major political movements as a result. The recall movement was also unprecedented, though it ostensibly failed. However the KMT has failed in its coupe so there's still a positive outcome.
It's why I'm here - it's one of the only countries on earth for which I'm politically optimistic.
> It's why I'm here - it's one of the only countries on earth for which I'm politically optimistic.
My curiosity is piqued by this. Do you mean to say you've moved there from somewhere place? And what do you mean, why is it the only country for which you're politically optimistic?
I don't mean to pry, and have no ulterior motive or point in asking. It just seems like a strong statement, and I cannot guess what you mean, or if I'm missing some cultural insinuation here or something. Taiwan does sound like a very interesting place to me, generally, though.
Just read the Wikipedia page - holy sh*t, if you'll pardon my French, what a figure! I haven't done anything with Perl, or Haskell, so this figure was just outside my view. Will definitely check some stuff out, I appreciate the pointer.
I was already rambling but didn't mention that Audrey Tang was one of the reasons I moved to Taiwan. Somewhat ironically they are an anarchist. I always meant to ask them how they square that with working as a minister. They have a HN account they sometimes post on, but I lost it.
When Audrey Tang was digital minister, you could just walk into their office during office hours and talk about whatever you wanted, so long as you consented to the meeting being recorded and uploaded to youtube. I met them at a g0v hackathon once and came to say hello, and they bade me sit down struck up an instantly deep-dive conversation into how to maintain data integrity using technology like ipfs what with the PRC constantly cutting our fiber cables.
I'm not quite sure what they're up to now that they're tenure's over, I saw their face on a massive billboard about some tech conference and heard a rumor that they're teaching at some university in like Australia or some such?
Yes I moved to Taiwan, from the USA. I was exposed to the political activism of Taiwan when I happened to be there during the sunflower protests in ten years ago, and spend 7 years working to return. My beliefs were confirmed day by day as I participated in g0v and witnessed the bluebird protests.
Political activity is high in Taiwan and there are many viewpoints represented. The government doesn't lash out mindlessly against protestors which is something I've never encountered having attended protests throughout the West - the USA, the UK, France, Australia, it seems governments are compelled to meet all protests with violence.
Furthermore taiwanese activists are incredibly organized. At the bluebird protests it was estimated there was many tens of thousands of people, but within hours of the protests being announced there were tents, food lines, water, and bathrooms set up for people. Some anarchists even set up a sound system and had a little rave down the street. There were also anarchists peppered throughout the crowd with medical supplies, and inevitably communists selling newspapers lol. There were two massive PA systems on side roads with hundreds of chairs for people to sit on, and plenty of cover to block the rain - and all these people her despite the massive rain storm!
I saw similar during the multiple pedestrian rights protests I've been to. The only bad protest I went to was a poorly organized bike protest.
I also very much enjoy the shenanigans of the Taiwanese legislative yuan. Throwing sausages at each other, stealing bills and running to the MRT so they can't be signed, barricading each other, getting into fist fights. It shows proper respect for the life or death nature of the decisions they're making.
I recently also went to a massive music festival that was highly politicized. Did you know there's a taiwanese politician that's also a singer in a metal band? Anyway his band did a lot of political speech during their show, which I found interesting. Furthermore there was a great deal of anti PRC messaging and art (which is often implied to be anti kmt as well). Another random memory of the music festival is that people will just leave their things lying around in the park, and the festival is ungated in the middle of the city, but nobody will take people's things because that just doesn't really happen in Taiwan. It's incredibly safe here.
I rambled. My overall point, is that people here genuinely feel like they can make a difference individually, because they truly can, and therefore they do. In my pictures you can see people sitting around on laptops. That's an impromptu working group to organize some recall efforts or something along those lines.
Other countries convince their populations that to make anything happen you need to convince 30 million people to agree with you first. In Taiwan you can go to a g0v hackathon and change the country in a small way in an afternoon.
Extremely interesting! I did ask myself if all those people would like having their photos online, what with the PRC across the pond. But perhaps I'm being "old-fashioned" there.
Very much appreciate the insider story. I've had a quick browse of your blog and will go back to it when I get a bit more time. Kudos to you for pursuing your interests boldly.
> Extremely interesting! I did ask myself if all those people would like having their photos online, what with the PRC across the pond. But perhaps I'm being "old-fashioned" there.
This is my concern when I photograph protests, but in my experience the people that don't want to be identified are taking pretty big steps to ensure it, e.g. wearing masks and whatnot. Anyone else should safely assume they're being photographed, after all Taiwan has ubiquitous CCTV. And again, it's not like the USA where you shouldn't even bring your phone, and there's a high likelihood you'll be blackbagged by the cops, it's just safe and not a big deal to be at a protest. I'm very convinced Taiwanese people enjoy far more enforced rights than Americans.
As first generation out of Salazar's dictorship, our country now having a right majority with a Nazi party in the mix, makes me really sad.
How short the memory of folks can be, especially with my parents and grand parents generations still around, but apparently their memories and experiences now fall into death hears.
Maybe when they start getting visits from the eventually new state protection police, they will understand, then it will be too late.
A bit of brainwashing through some media owned by billionaires and there we go for another round. My parents' generation is voting en masse for a party that was literally funded by a former Waffen-SS leader after WW2, while thinking "the left" is antisemitic.
I think you may be being downvoted for the exclamation mark, which I also found a tad over the top, although I didn't downvote you.
Particularly when the mistake you're correcting was so reasonable and charming. It's an excellent example of an "eggcorn".
If you haven't heard of eggcorns, fear not: the word "eggcorn" is itself an autology, i.e., a word that is an example of the phenomenon it describes. So if you remember the word, "eggcorn", you should be able to remember the concept. An eggcorn is a type of malapropism, but one that could plausibly fit the context of the misheard original word or phrase.
So, for example, "eggcorn" could plausibly have been the word for the object which we actually call an "acorn".
Similarly, when I read "into death hears", I immediately knew what the writer meant, and had a little chuckle to myself thinking about how it actually made total sense. So perhaps we could point out to them nicely the lovely eggcorn they were using, rather than text-shouting.
>How short the memory of folks can be, especially with my parents and grand parents generations still around
A good thing to remember is that shitloads of people didn't learn from those kinds of events.
The young adults who threw rocks at black girls going to white schools in the southern USA are still alive and still voting and still hold a grudge.
Look when the civil rights act passed, and look how hard the south went republican after that.
>Maybe when they start getting visits from the eventually new state protection police, they will understand, then it will be too late.
A lot of genuine Nazi believers went to "political" camps during the Nazi regime and they did not change their tune. They eventually got out, and just kept being Nazis, because they were Nazis because they genuinely believe the ideology. People who were literally sidelined by stupid Nazis infighting continued to advance the goals of the Nazis regime. Getting targeted and harmed by their very own regime did not change their opinion of it.
The same happened in Soviet Russia to all sorts of genuine communists who got gulag'd anyway, and still strongly held communist (stalinist even) beliefs (if they survived)
Tribalism is one of the strongest buttons humans have. We should be less surprised that it works so effectively
I fear that your observations speaks more to protest being an inefficient catalyst for regime change more than it speaks to the efforts and initiatives to preserve freedom.
The jetset class doesn't really care about a single nation. For good (trade binds fractious governments) or ill (neofeudalism), they try to separate themselves from the proles.
Not by telling them they should care. They have to experience. Unfortunately, with dictatorship, once you are experiencing it, it's already too late.
---
The reasons democracies slide towards less freedom is that in theory decisions should be made by people who care and are informed. But in reality, a single vote every few years is too imprecise to express any kind of informed opinion.
You pick and issue, do research and vote according to what's best for you and/or society. Except you can't vote on the issue. You vote for a party or candidate which also has stances towards dozens other issues. So even if you provide signal in one dimension, you provide only noise in others.
Voting for parties/candidates is like expressing your entire opinion, a multidimensional vector, by picking one point from a small number of predefined choices.
Protests are rarely effectual, they serve more to gauge interest of others and provide connections.
In the end the state is a force of violence. Voting works in so much as it is roughly a tally of who would win if we all pulled knives on each other. Democracy was formed at a time when guns and knives were the most effectual tools the state had to fight against the populace. Now that the government has more asymmetric tools democracy is likely a weaker gauge of how to avoid violence, because the most practical thing voting does is bypass violence by ascertaining ahead of time who would win in a fight.
As this asymmetry becomes more profound, the bargaining power of the populace erodes, and voting becomes more of a rigged game. If the populace can't check the power of the elite, the elite has no carrot to respect the human rights of others.
“Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts – and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change” [1].
Exhibit A: the same region, literally last month. First protesters in Bangladesh lead “to the ouster of the then-prime minister, Sheikh Hasina” [2]. Then Indonesia “pledged to revoke lawmakers’ perks and privileges, including a controversial $3,000 housing allowance, in a bid to ease public fury after nationwide protests” [3].
I think when people, particularly in America, think "protest", they think of people walking around with placards and other such relatively low effort involvement. That article is talking about incidents where you have 3.5% of people (that would be 12 million people in the US) engaging in things like organized and real boycotts (as opposed to 'Yeah I'm boycotting [this place I've never even heard of, let alone shopped at]), strikes, and so on.
You could have tens of millions of students and otherwise unemployed individuals walking around with placards, and nobody's going to care. But get 50,000 truckers (let alone 12 million people) to go on strike over something, and the whole country will grind to a halt.
Sure it might have been unpopular and a silly cause. However that didn't stop the government from invoking the emergencies act and cracking down with impunity. There were even cases of finances being frozen.
> I think when people, particularly in America, think "protest", they think of people walking around with placards and other such relatively low effort involvement.
Growing up in Nepal and witnessing some large non-violent and violent protests, I was frankly, baffled to see people standing on the sides of the streets and holding sign boards as protests
Where's the rallies? Where is the mass involvement needed for a successful protest? where are the street blocks? non-voilent doesn't mean just standing there.
The first time I actually saw something worth being called a protest was during the Black Lives Matter movement. I think it exposed the American police system for what it was, and the system's inability to control protesters peacefully
I've seen a lot of protests around NYC on various topics
Recently more with Palestine
> You could have tens of millions of students and otherwise unemployed individuals walking around with placards, and nobody's going to care.
I think you're wrong here
Do it for one day nobody cares
Do it for a week, people notice
Do it for a month, you've got regime change
Far below. Occupy Wall Street was perhaps thousands of people. 3.5% of the US would be over 12 million people. 3.5% of New York City would be 350,000 people. In the street outside Wall Street. Yeah, that would have occupied Wall Street, to the point that workers would have had trouble getting in the door. Occupy Wall Street was nothing like that.
The USA has an astonishly effective machine at stomping out protests for anything more than holding up a sign. BLM in Minneapolis was allowed to go on because the politician agreed with it. (Tim Walz's wife famously noted how much she enjoyed the smell of the burning tires.) []
When I was young and still under the illusion protests did anything, I recall going to a protest during the 'occupy' days. Obama was coming into town and we wanted him to be able to hear us chanting or see our signs.
My memory is pretty bad at this point on the context, but roughly how I remember it going was he was going to some sort of convention center. We started walking there, and about halfway there this mysterious but incredibly confident and authoritative person with a megaphone showed up and told us we had succeeded and the protest was over. About 90% of people actually believed that and left. The 10% of us that were like "who the hell is this lady and why would anyone listen to her" kept going. Then the police surrounded us and beat the shit out of anyone they could get to. We never got anywhere close to Obama's route.
That study appears to be comparing violent protests to non-violent protests.
At 3.5% of the populace taking up arms (not in protest but in war), that would far outnumber armed government officials in most countries. I don't doubt that a government choosing to concede at the point those 3.5% signaled peacefully they are likely to get violence soon, since the government conceding before that happens indicates they are weak enough to not be able to fight it off. Of course, If you have 3.5% of the populace fighting you can defeat even a horribly asymmetric situation, as the Chechens showed when they gained independence in the first Chechen war against Russia where almost everything beyond small arms were obtained via capture from the enemy.
At best your study shows that a government that capitulates before violence is more likely to be defeated, which makes sense since both sides tend to pick violence when they actually think they can win -- and if both sides think they can win then odds are quite good the odds of winning lie somewhere closer to the middle of the odds if the actors are rational. Concession before violence is more likely to indicate the odds lie outside the middle.
> study appears to be comparing violent protests to non-violent protests
No. The 3.5% figure specifically refers to nonviolent resistance [1].
Would note that “new research suggests that one nonviolent movement, Bahrain in 2011-2014, appears to have decisively failed despite achieving over 6% popular participation at its peak” [2]. But the fact remains that it’s harder to identify ineffective mass protests than effective ones.
> which makes sense since both sides tend to pick violence when they actually think they can win
This assumes a lot more rationality than violent resistance (and corrupt governments) tend to have.
Instead, the evidence is that violent resistance fails more often than nonviolent resistance. In part because violent resistance helps the government consolidate power over its own violence apparatus in a way nonviolent protest inhibits.
I listened to an interview with one of the article's authors, and she said the reason non-violent protests defeat a state willing to order violent crackdowns is because the soldiers performing those crackdowns are regular people. They are not the people who most benefit from an authoritarian state. So when they find themselves being told to beat up or shoot a nun sitting in the street, there's a good chance the soldier would defect.
The new tools are largely tools of surveilance and censorship, etc.
Essentially they are tools that affect democratic coordination more so than fighting. If you can still coordinate despite them, then the amtal rule applies.
Hard agree. I’m always trying to get my fellow young Americans to understand this and it seems to go right over their heads a lot of times. My parents lived through multiple oppressive dictatorships before emigrating to America. Once I understood everything that they and their families experienced (e.g., family members being kidnapped, disappeared, and eventually murdered simply due their political views), I gained a much deeper appreciation for our Constitution (in particular, our Bill of Rights).
Nowadays, watching how easy it is to get folks to give in to censorship and tyranny for psychological “safety” scares me sometimes (especially when it’s all due to politics).
No matter what someone’s views are (and how offensive I may find them to be), I’ll never ever advocate for their censorship, because I understand where that can lead. Today, it’s your opponent; tomorrow, it’s you.
I actually don’t know if I agree with the last part. A chunk of the Rwandan genocide was a radio station instigating and advocating for the mass slaughter of a people. Atrocities in Myanmar also were originally advocated for in Facebook. On more personal levels, domestic abuse is also psychological torture and the wearing down of a person with words and it should be in someone’s right to file a restraining order to stop being contacted by their abuser even if the abuser doesn’t perform physical violence.
That is to say I broadly agree with the notion that speech should be relatively unfettered, but I do believe there must be exceptions for speech that actively aims to fetter people. We must limit speech that advocates limiting the freedoms of people to live as independent and equal citizens.
> That is to say I broadly agree with the notion that speech should be relatively unfettered, but I do believe there must be exceptions for speech that actively aims to fetter people. We must limit speech that advocates limiting the freedoms of people to live as independent and equal citizens.
While absolute free speech remains unattainable in practice due to inevitable societal boundaries, it should serve as an aspirational ideal toward which we continually strive, minimizing deviations rather than expanding them. Speech restrictions often and quickly devolve into subjectivity, fostering environments where only dominant ideologies prevail.
So, of course, by all means, restrict speech that harms children, incites violence, etc., but be very careful to not open that door too widely.
Yes I agree totally with this, we should never open the door too widely to censorship. It should only be limited to speech to take away others rights as citizens and people. People can say whatever they want until they say “this person must not be an equal to me”.
That's a huge leap from directly instigating genocide that actually happened to "We must limit speech that advocates limiting the freedoms of people to live as independent and equal citizens." which is severe censorship of all sorts of political ideas, including ones which we already enact and most people agree with. There's a lot of widely-accepted government-enforced inequality (foreigners, prisoners, convicts, children, inherited rights, etc.) which just shows how overly broad the restrictions you say we must impose are. Even yourself saying that could be interpreted as a violation of your own rule! You also advocated for restraining orders! You're your own enemy. Your opinion could really benefit from some back and forth with other people to refine it into something more sensible. Hopefully I'm contributing a little to that.
Wait what’s wrong with a restraining order? Do you think it should be legal for a person to stalk and mail threats to someone, go to their workplace to issue threats, phone them to issue threats, etc? I acknowledge stopping someone is censorship, but I also believe that it is important to both harbor free speech as an ideal in the ideal world, and also that it is important to acknowledge we don’t exist in the ideal world where no one will use their freedom of speech to egregiously destroy people.
People make vague and non-serious advocations for inequality and non-freedom all the time and it's not really that serious. For example saying on social media that some politician is a criminal and should be locked up. It has to be OK to discuss political ideas, even in the form of "I think we should..." (advocating) rather than "what if we did...?" (not advocating).
> But also yes to the cops arresting a kid who posts on social media that he’s gonna kill all his classmates tomorrow morning.
I think that everyone (yes, literally everyone) would agree that direct incitements and threats of violence such as this would be fine to censor and deal with appropriately. As a free speech advocate, I know a lot of folks with free speech absolutist views yet I don’t know a single person who’d be against any of that.
The reality though is that, in practice, these extreme examples tend to be used to justify censorship only to end up making the rules vague and subjective enough that, sooner or later, folks start being censored for wrongthink.
Also, “moderation” is just a soft term for censorship.
The Chinese constitution guarantees free speech universally, another part of the constitution is used to control all facets of life in line with the state narrative, and that’s a charitable interpretation when we just pretend that the process of law matters at all, and distinguish when it is just procedural theatre or a real constraint on the state
Conflicting parts of constitutions can change everything
I think Westerners and perhaps especially Americans think it has intrinsic power because they have a strong rule of law and effective independent courts so they are used to their Constitution being well inforced.
However, in a country where this is not the case the Constitution is just a piece of paper...
Agreed but if the right doesn't exist on paper it's not likely the government is going to respect it in practice. Although there are exceptions (most Somalia has de facto right to bear arms despite it being super illegal).
I am perfectly fine living in a society where you are not free to assault/storm government buildings and personally believe that the Jan 6th riots should have been met with more violent force than what occurred to protect the congressional proceedings.
Even the memories are no antidote. In the Philippines the memory of Marcos didn't stop autocrats from rising to power. Even in Europe, countries with relatively recent memories of autocracy and fascism, such as Portugal and Spain, have far-right parties with >20% seats in Parliament, just like in France or Germany.
It is not a question of what, but a question of why.
Why do autocrats rise to power? Why are far-right parties rising in power in Germany, France, Spain and Portugal?
I've come to see this as a fundamental human nature one can't go against. Some people are, just evil. Humans will always love self more than others. This love of self can turn into a hatred of others, or easily be turned into a hatred of others.
Acceptance that evil forces and opportunitists and populists will always be around us is the first step in asnwering what is to be done
If the closest you can get to understanding populists is “some humans are just evil and selfish”, a large part of humanity will remain mysterious and unreachable to you.
I think everyone understands tribalism to some extent. You would probably expend more effort to protect your child than you would a stranger. Populism just turns up the knob on this instinct.
Calling people who hold beliefs you find wrong "evil" is, IMO, counter-productive and will lead not only to conflict but to worse outcomes for yourself (even if your side "wins"). The root of cultural differences (both within and between societies and sub-cultures) are differing beliefs of what is right and wrong; what is morally good and morally bad.
What you view as hateful, others will view as loving. And what you view as loving, others can view as hateful. Painting the opposition in simplistic terms like "evil" and refusing to even try to see why they feel they way they feel solves nothing and empowers extremists. And when groups led by such people "win", the majority still lose.
IMO, any side of any belief, be it individualism vs collectivism, atheism vs religion, sexual openness vs sexual restraint, free speech vs censorship, capitalism vs socialism, etc, etc. can easily morph into something harmful. You may have discovered "evil", but after many decades, I've come to see that most people's hearts are in the right place. But there are always a significant fraction on any side of any issue that, for whatever reason, cannot regulate their emotions and seem to need to strive for the extremes.
Compromise can happen if you reject extremists. Solutions can be found if you understand that the extremists on your own side are as much the opposition as the other side of an issue. Purity of belief always seems attractive on the surface. But moderation is not a cop out, it's pragmatism. Moderation is the practical philosophy through which solutions can be found. Fundamentalism, extremism, dogmatism, are approaches that lead to worse outcomes. Moderation leads to better outcomes. History has shown this again and again.
> The demonstration turned violent when some protesters entered the Parliament complex, prompting police to resort to baton charges, tear gas shells and rubber bullets to disperse the crowd, eyewitnesses said.
14 people dead from so-called "non-lethal" means. How do 14 people end up dead without the police coming with intent to do harm?
Rubber bullets have been shown time and time again to be lethal. Just because they don't kill you every time doesn't mean they aren't lethal. You can survive a gun shot too. Immense shame should be poured on every media outlet that licks the boot of authoritarians when they repeat this lie.
Also note the phrasing. The content is "the police killed 14 people". But the form is "the situation turned violent as a result of the protester's actions".
It’s also irrefutable fact that pro-state or pro-cop agitators throughout history will pretend to be a demonstrator and throw a single brick to give the cops an excuse to break some skulls
In primitive societies where people are expected to resolve their own problems because everyone is roughly equal, violence is the principal currency, for better or worse.
But in "civilized" societies with multiple layers of power structures, you are not supposed to solve your own problem, you are supposed to show somebody in a position of power that you are the victim so they solve the problem for you. This means victimhood is the principal currency of power.
Don't believe me? Every governments which allows protests says they must always be peaceful and "violence doesn't belong in politics". Yet how many of those governments were created by violent armed revolt against a previous authoritarian government? How many by "peaceful" protests?
> you are supposed to show somebody in a position of power that you are the victim so they solve the problem for you. This means victimhood is the principal currency of power
This doesn't describe how legal systems evolved at all.
They evolved to protect the powerful from each other. You went through the legal system because if you didn't you escalated your problem from a dispute with one powerful person to a dispute with the system of power.
The only way this victimhood notion works is if we describe all claims of damages as claims to victimhood. Which, I guess, they sort of are. But those pleas are made by the powerful, too. If you aren't the victim of something, if you haven't been harmed, what the fuck is the case you're bringing?
> how many of those governments were created by violent armed revolt against a previous authoritarian government? How many by "peaceful" protests?
Since mechanised warfare, I think there have been more peaceful revolutions than (non-state backed) violent ones. The latter tend to just result in failed states.
Is how they evolved relevant? When somebody protests against the government itself, the legal system doesn't even matter, unless it has a mechanism how people can secede legally. Do any have that?
When I meant is that victimhood works when you need to gain support from somebody with more power than you. Either from the legal system or from masses of people. The latter can by foreign (putting political pressure on the government) or domestic (gathering more people to show how many are willing to stand against it). Violence is the only thing that can work when there is nobody to appeal to (again, not just legally but through empathy or intimidation) - see below - a large crowd is a lot of implied potential violence and you need victimhood to achieve that mass.
> Since mechanised warfare, I think there have been more peaceful revolutions than (non-state backed) violent ones.
I purposefully didn't mention examples like the "Velvet" revolution because they too use violence, they just don't materialize it.
Violence is most powerful when it's implied, before it's used physically. Imagine oppressing a nation >10 million and now 1 million are standing on the square in front of your government building, shouting slogans. Anybody would give up power "peacefully" because if they didn't, there's a high chance that implied violence would materialize and they'd end up killed instead of having made a nice deal for peaceful retirement.
> The latter tend to just result in failed states.
Because the latter tend to happen in states which never had functioning institutions to begin with so they have no experience with running a functioning let alone democratic state. Sarah Paine had a lecture about how restoring democracy to Germany or bringing it to Japan after WW2 was possible because they already has the organizational knowledge. But the US failed to bring democracy to Afghanistan or other places it invaded because those were always a mess full or corruption and you'd need several generations to ingrain the principles.
Yes. You described a “primitive” legal system that in truth didn’t exist.
Early legal systems didn’t have anything to do with victimhood beyond demonstrating harm. They didn’t have systems for the powerless because they didn’t concern themselves with them, they were a means by which elites peacefully resolved disputes.
> unless it has a mechanism how people can secede legally
What?
> When I meant is that victimhood works when you need to gain support from somebody with more power than you
How would you differentiate that from demonstrating harm?
I didn't describe a legal system at all. But it is certainly a modern way of thinking that one always needs some higher "authority" to resolve disputes or to defend against injustice.
> What?
secede /sĭ-sēd′/
To withdraw formally from membership in a state, union, or other political entity.
Note, this is a low effort reply to a low effort reply from you.
If you wish to discuss this politely, we can discuss which states have a legal mechanism by which a land-owning individual, a town or region can legally vote to gain independence. I don't know of any.
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Victimhood is perceived harm (by yourself or others). But I don't understand why you focus on separating victimhood from demonstrating harm so much. See my other replies on this article, I explained my views in more depth there.
> Yet how many of those governments were created by violent armed revolt against a previous authoritarian government? How many by "peaceful" protests?
This is actually an interesting question.
Many post-colonial governments, notably India, were create through what might be called non-violent means. Would be interesting to have someone properly research that.
Yes, I won't pretend it's clear cut or that the numbers without context mean much.
How I see it:
- Victimhood works when there is somebody to appeal to or other people to gain support from.
- Violence works when there's no higher power or when you already have the most popular support you ever will.
Getting more people to join you and openly protest is a lot of implied/potential violence. Meaning you can use victimhood (see how the police are beating us) to gain more potential violence for use later. Either the people in power see this and back down (e.g. Velvet revolution) before the violence materializes, or not. They can also see how successful materialized violence can become and flee (e.g. Syria) or they can try to win a civil war (e.g. Myanmar).
I haven't read much about India yet but my guess is victimhood worked in the case of India because essentially they were getting the support of citizens in the UK (a higher power) to pressure their government into giving it independence. It was costly for the politicians to be oppressors and also get reelected.
Victimhood failed in China and recently Belarus because 1) there was nobody to appeal to 2) the oppressors didn't back down 3) the protesters failed to materialize the violence and were defeated by the government's violence.
"violence doesn't belong in politics" is a hilarious one. Off the top of my head, the USA is kidnapping people and sending them to countries they are not from, and telling me as a trans woman that maybe I should not own guns
I'm sure there will be no violence once the thugs have guns and I don't
Sorry to see you getting downvoted or flagged but that's HN for you.
Issue is many people believe that peace is more important than justice.
Or that fighting and losing is worse than not being able to fight at all. And there's a bit of concern trolling too - basically they say if you fought you'd lose so they'll take away your ability to fight to protect you.
This is happening in Europe too with plenty of people trying to stop weapon deliveries to Ukraine because that'll stop the war. It's "stop struggling, it'll be over sooner" with slightly more sophisticated words.
Of course the answer is that people cheer for protests they like and punish riots they don’t. This is politics and that’s why there is so much fighting about how news and history chooses to frame them. The headline we have received today is telling me it’s a good protest.
Also, it’s literally a war crime to use tear gas on the battlefield, yet it’s somehow OK to use it on civilians. (I understand part of the reason is to prevent a slippery slope from tear gas to chlorine, but it’s still telling.)
Tear gas is routinely used at scale on people for training purposes. One of the things you learn (and a major point of the training) is that it is largely a psychological deterrent, you become acclimated to the unpleasant effects pretty quickly upon repeated exposure.
> If something doesn't work then there's no need to ban it
Did you read the article?
Chemical weapons provide no benefit to a modern army. They do, however, to simpler armies. So the world's militaries, who command modern armies, came together and banned them.
Put another way, the U.S. military gains nothing from chemical weapons over high explosives. The Taliban, on the other hand, might.
The count is 19. And it's mostly students, few of who were still in their school uniform. Many head injuries, and death by bullets on the head. This is the darkest day in Nepal!
Edit: And the protest was against corrupt politicians, not social media ban.
The count's gone up. I didn't go to the protest but the friends that went say they're probably under-counting considering how many shots were fired right in front of them.
It reads like: citizens have been protesting the government using social media, government desperate to curb dissent bans social media, dissent is now on the streets..
Or maybe it's as straightforward as the media has been reporting.
Just a random tourist caught up in all of this in Nepal right now, but what I gathered was that corruption and anti-government sentiment was the reason, but the social networks ban tipped people over the edge to start protesting.
Nepal government made the classic mistake of not realizing if you let people scream into the ether on whatever the youth use as twitter, they won't meet up with their friends to scream on the street or even worse.
Social media has proven to be quite an effective tool for mobilizing protests and beyond. I get how the short-sighted might see it as a tactical move to "cripple logistics" by banning social media.
But, the reason I call it short-sighted is exactly what you said: Removing those earlier pressure-release valves doesn’t solve the underlying issue at all and just increases the risk of a more volatile outcome.
> Social media has proven to be quite an effective tool for mobilizing protests
Gatherings, yes. Effective protest, I’m less convinced.
Effective protests “have clear strategic goals, use protest to broaden coalitions, seek to enlist more powerful individuals in their cause, and connect expressions of discontent to broader political and electoral mobilization” [1].
Social media helps enlist the elite. But it absolutely trashes clarity of goals and coalition broadening, often degrading into no true Scotsman contests. If a protest is well planned, social media can help it organize. But if a movement is developing, social media will as often keep it in a leaderless, undisciplined and thus ineffective state.
> “No movement of people, demonstration, meeting, gathering or sit-in will be allowed in the restricted zone,” Chief District Officer Chhabi Lal Rijal said in a notice.
This is what I'll never understand about neolib governments sliding towards authoritarianism: why push back so hard? Evacuate the parliamentary buildings, don't meet the protestors with police, and let them have the run of the place. Record every face on CCTV, and then spend the next couple months vanishing them. The USSR understood this and it's that kind of forward-thinking that lets the likes of Putin maintain authority all the way from his career as a KGB agent through to now.
These governments responding to protests with tear gas and batons fail not only at effective authoritarianism, but also at being good liberal democracies where people can safely protest - which is possible, Taiwan has had two record sized protests in my life and at neither of them did the police advance with batons and beat the shit out of people.
You and me both. On some level I'm happy that governments push back so hard because it makes protests "work" but it seems like it would be way more effective for a government to simply ignore the protesters. It would be the ultimate flex by a corrupt government—we're so far above you that you have nothing to shake your fist at.
In general (with some per-country variance), the batons and tear gas will only come out when the one critical threshold is reached: rich people start making less money. So you can get ten or 100 buddies out on the street shouting and waving flags, and they’ll ignore you because no stores are losing business. But the moment those people disrupt the flow of profits, the brute squads will hit the streets.
It shows that the Nepalese have a higher civic response compared to many in the West, just look at the Brits, where in effect there is a social media ban on lots and lots of things that affect day-to-day life.
Let’s not pretend the level of ban is equivalent, or the effect it has on people’s lives. More should be done, but there are levels of severity. UK citizens can and do still log on to many services daily that are not accessible in Nepal.
Of course they log in, I never said otherwise, but only if they want to write about stuff that is pretty much inconsequential to their lives, such as sports or celebrity culture.
Because people in the West have been indoctrinated to trust their governments far too much to an unhealthy degree to actually think that maybe their government doesn't have their best interest at heart and to start protesting.
And also because they're in the trap of a government provided cushy lifestyle which the government can terminate at will without violence (de-banking, de-pensioning, de-uneployment, de-social housing, etc) if they're caught protesting. People in underdeveloped countries don't have anything more to loose anyway but their chains.
> Because people in the West have been indoctrinated to trust their governments far too much to an unhealthy degree
Can you give specific examples?
I frequently find the US outlook to be exactly the reverse, where people pretend like "the government" is some conspiratorial shadow organisation undermining all the citizens at every step (which seems quite silly to me because it basically consists only of people that you directly or indirectly voted for).
My view is that if you have incompetent, selfish administrators in a western democracy, then just don't vote for them next time; if they keep getting elected, then maybe your countries actual problem are the idiot voters instead (or possibly not-actually-independent mass media, the importance of which can not be overstated).
People will speak negatively of the government, but also have learned helplessness regarding things like surveillance.
An attitude that has become common in the UK is to say the government needs powers control the "gammon" (i.e. the hoi polloi) from themselves, and to protect their children from their terrible parents, etc.
>which seems quite silly to me because it basically consists only of people that you directly or indirectly voted for
It's not silly when you consider that the candidates you can vote for, are all managed oppositions, each owned and supported by various mega-money interest groups. Why else did Bernie Sanders never got nominated as a presidential candidate even though many people supported him? Because he's not bought and paid for by the lobbyist groups. In every country it's like that.
Democratic super delegates overrode the nomination
This literally didn't happen. This sort of conspiracy-theorizing nonsense is akin to Trump's about the 2020 election and has lead to a bunch of low-info voters making bad decisions.
I'm not disputing that there is gonna be some degree of plutocracy when political funding is uncontrolled and media presence can be bought for cheap.
But I think "managed opposition is the best you can get as voter" is incorrect; Trump is in my view neither managed nor "pro-establishment" in any way, and if everything was actually under "capitalist" control, then people like Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez or Tim Walz would never be allowed even close to a position of power.
Anti-establishment populists in Europe have seen comparable success (e.g. Italy where they are in power, or Germany where it just looks like a matter of time).
Melloni only pretended to be anti establishment to win elections, but isn't. She campaigned on deporting illegals, and then gave them residency and right to work lol. Tell me a bigger rug pull. Trump is the same, he campaigned on a lot of things(Epstein list anyone?), but not actually executed on them or only did it only as a show (DOGE).
Trump is "managed" by whom, then? Musk? The Koch brothers? George Soros?
I don't see why you would ever want some mercurial populist in power if you are rich and established; risks to wealth/investments wastly outweight any potential gains from billionaire-friendly tax policy (and you could lobby for such tax policy elsewhere, as well).
Hey, Belgian here. Our government cannot just de-bank, de-pension or de- anything else you are suggesting, and definitely not by the "crime" of protesting (what a ridiculous statement!)
We protest here too by the way, this weekend about 100k in Brussels.
That you make these claims is just plain up ridiculous.
You were talking about "people in the West". Belgians are people in the west, and we don't comply to your statements.
Secondly, I don't believe a word you say about Germany. Source please.
Don't generalize what happened once in Canada to the whole "Western world" and all kinds of de-.... And as far as I remember, those truckers were protesting. So they certainly didn't comply to your description of being indoctrinated to trust their government.
Then there's also the normal US style limits (fighting words are banned, speech which harms big companies is banned, "obscenity" is restricted or banned, death threats to the president are banned (the UK also bans threats to people who aren't the president)
It also seems reasonable that companies have to follow local laws to operate there. Corporations superseding states seems just as dystopian as state repression of dissent. Granted, there is either confusion or misrepresentation as Mastodon is also banned.
The reporting seems pretty meagre; even strictly with these events, how are so many dying from batons and rubber bullets? Sure these can kill, but fourteen people?
It's awkward isn't it, because following local laws could mean being a helping hand of the oppressor... For an extreme example, an email company that is forced by a new law to reveal all emails of citizens of country X, or a payment app that has to upload all transactions to the government (and where the supreme court has ruled in favour of the surveillance state). The "moral" company would probably rather shut their operations, but even trillion-dollar companies relent... And who has the last word on what's moral?
If you’re suggesting you have distilled humanity to the essential rights and values that are obviously true and transcend culture. Yes that’s a western value.
I guess you’d disagree with Article 19 of the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights then, on the basis that these human rights are a “western” concept and the United Nations is a “western” institution?
> Article 19
> Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.
UN is a western liberal organization. I didn’t say I agree or disagree - I said businesses generally aim to abide by local law, not engage in western political projects.
You said because it is a proxy for local people's moral systems.
Firstly, laws are not a great proxy for local people's moral systems in dictatorships. I am not sure they are even that reliable proxy in democracies.
Secondly, while some exact expressions are of western origin, the general concept of freedom is pretty universal. Secondly, ideas of western origin might well be widely supported by people anywhere. Ideas spread.
Finally, where do you draw the line? Will you be entirely amoral and cooperate with any laws? Will you supply torture implements because the government wants them? A surveillance system primarily aimed at a ethnic or religious minority, or to identify supporters of the opposition? Genocide?
Most businesses claim to have some moral stance, and when they fail to stick to it it just looks like hypocrisy to me. A very visible example is the complete lack of rainbow logos in the same companies Chinese or Saudi operations during pride month - and media businesses that have a gay rights stance in the west will edit our gay scenes in Asia. Plenty of companies will claim to be anti-racist but do business than funds the Uighur genocide.
Freedom to say whatever you'd like with no repercussions short of calling for violence is certainly a western idea. Freedom from hate speech, for instance, is something one might like that you cannot find in the US. Without qualifiers "freedom" is a floating signifier.
A western idea in origin. According to the historian Tom Holland its a Christian idea in origin (read his book Dominion if you want an explanation) - does that mean atheists should not support it? its a good idea, everyone should adopt it.
No repercussions for anything short of calling violence is actually an American idea, to some extent other Anglophone countries. It is not generally accepted in continental Europe which has always had far more restrictions on speech. So its not generically "western". On the other hand some level of free speech is widely supported by many people in non-western countries. its in a lot of constitutions, and people will generally say they support free speech.
- Local law meant to censor heavily any dissent
- several pro corruption measures passed in the last few years
- the people have been angry for long
- social media just meant people now have to come on the streets
lazily pasting one of my comments from yesterday
"So after sacking the wildly (and deservingly) popular Chairman of the National Electricity Authority, after allowing ministers to set arbitrary and uncapped salaries for themselves and their workers, after obstructing and undermining the wildly (and deservingly) popular mayor of the Capital, and after doing like 15 of these really major, objectively anti-nation things, and getting called out for it in Social Media by the commoners, the 73 year old Prime Minister (in many ways a Trump-like figure; immune to shame or criticism) moves to ban social media in the country. "
In the meantime, Russia erected a copy of the great Chinese firewall with DPI and everything - blocking YouTube, foreign news, most voice chat apps, most vpn traffic, and even actively dropping ssh connections when too much bidirectional sustained traffic is being detected.
> The prime minister said the party is not against social media, “but what cannot be accepted is those doing business in Nepal, making money, and yet not complying with the law”.
I accept that there is corruption and manipulation by the government, but experience tells us also that these companies may be avoiding taxes towards zero.
They have all registered with Nepal's revenue office and are paying VAT [0]
The issue is the government in Nepal wants every social media holding company to have a designated person in Nepal who they can directly communicate with for takedowns without going through the traditional process, and if the company does not flllow through, hold that person legally liable.
It's a blatant censorship ploy because protests and dissatisfaction against the KP Sharma Oli, Sher Bahadur Deuba, and Prachanda musical chairs along with various constant corruption scandals are pushing Nepalis to ask for an alternative.
Have you seen how public polls on the judiciary have changed in just the past 5 years? People do not believe our institutions work. Though the judiciary may be independent, people believe that it is cut of the same cloth -- elite schools, disconnect from normal life
Rogue browser extensions are very rare these days. When people get redirected to malicious sites, it's almost always either due to the site having an infected WordPress installation or using a sketchy ad network.
>When people get redirected to malicious sites, it's almost always either due to the site having an infected WordPress installation or using a sketchy ad network.
That's often true. However, in this case when visiting the linked page[0] I am able to connect and view the article without issue.
Some details:
Location: USA
Browser: Firefox 128.14.0esr
Ublock Origin running with mostly default settings
Perhaps there's a location blocking issue and/or malware that targets certain locations/browser types?
Many news articles have failed to mention that the social media ban in Nepal was a direct response to a viral "nepo-baby vs. regular youth" online campaign, which ultimately backfired.
The government framed the ban as a measure against "unregistered social media" platforms. However, major companies like Facebook and YouTube have been registered and paying taxes for years. These companies did not agree to the government's overly controlling bill, which had not even been passed into law. The K.P. Oli government attempted to bypass a public vote and enforce it as a directive, threatening non-compliant apps with bans.
Every major global news outlet is portraying Nepal’s protest as being against a “social media ban.” That is misleading. Even most large local media houses are pushing the same narrative—which is not surprising, since many of them serve as PRs agents for political parties.
A bit about Nepal—the government here is run by a bunch of old farts. They are deeply corrupt and will do anything, legal or not, to protect their positions and continue embezzling the national budget. They lack accountability because they know they can/and have gotten away with anything. Example of a recent one [1]. Their children live lavishly, flexing their designer bags and watches, while the commoners struggle working tough jobs overseas just to survive.
They know that by controlling social media—as they already did with TikTok—they can censor any news about their corruption (which is a norm here) easily and keep the people in dark and in their favor. Now, they want Meta and Google to comply with their agenda and with the election coming, they need this bad!
This protest was never about a “social media ban.” It was against years and years of corruption, embezzlement and censorship. It was supposed to be peaceful. But politics here is a dirty game, and these veterans are seasoned pros. They hired goons to infiltrate the peaceful crowds, cause chaos and damage public property—a very old tactic here. That is how the demonstration spiraled out of control.
If you want to hear the voices of real people, look at r/Nepal and r/NepalSocial on Reddit.
And ask yourself—do you really think people are ready to risk their lives just for social media?
- "if social media won't follow our laws, we should ban them"
- "I am affiliated to this party so this is ok"
- "social media bad, hence ban good"
of course the deeper issue was that the social media was banned because it helped backlash against the powerful spread. and backlash mostly well-deserved because of the objectively pro-corruption anti-press anti-people laws being proposed and passed.
In many ways, this protest and this massacre was probably step n and n+1 in the process rather than an accident:
Compared to nearby poor nations, Nepal is safe and its people are perceived to be welcoming. It's the only serious candidate for being a ski-nation in all of mainland Asia. If Nepal wanted, it could transform itself into a Bali style tourist destination and ascend towards being a middle economy. Unlike India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, which have to solve 1-billion-people scale problems, at 30 million, Nepal can resort to scaled down solutions.
Nepal's refusal to leverage the (few) advantages of its geography is baffling.
The internal politics are even more bizarre. As a communist-adjacent nation, it has a closed off economy with deep suspicion towards free markets. Yet, the national messaging alternates between blaming India or China for all their problems. The local populace (like every populace) eats this up. From my observations, neither nation affects Nepal's economics much. (national security is a separate conversation)
> protests reflect young people's widespread frustration with government action to tackle corruption and boost economic opportunities.
South Asia is coming off a recent protest->overthrow movement in Bangladesh. The youth protesters had similar complaints. Yet, the outcome was an even less democratic system which now owed favors to the violent parts of the society that helped complete the ouster. Similarly, Nepal has a history of political instability and violent ousters, most of which had led of very little economic change.
The youth's complaints are valid and I support their protests. However, do the protesters have an outcome in mind ? They want an improved economy. But, will they be okay with opening Nepal up to free markets ? This may mean selling resort building contracts to major western ski companies. It may mean opening unsafe sweatshops for Adidas to make shoes there. It may mean resource exploration by foreign mining companies.
I say this, because this is a South Asian disease. We want our nations to have a strong economy. But, economic liberalization can sometimes look like colonization, and this hurts the ego of proud global-south nations. We want progress, while keeping all foreign influence at bay. We want social welfare, but the nation is bankrupt. It's paradoxical. When our nations do move towards markets, it happens at gunpoint (1991) or with steep political costs (Farm Bill, GST) to the the incumbent.
Not sure what the solution is here. But, the last decade has made me suspicious towards protest movements that do not have positive policy outcomes in mind. The student's anger is valid, but impressionable students are the the time-honored vanguard used by more powerful opposition to trigger coups.
> The Global South classification, as used by governmental and developmental organizations, was first introduced as a more open and value-free alternative to Third World,[6] and likewise potentially "valuing" terms such as developed and developing.
But I don't think it's "more open and value-free" at all. The rhetoric around it always seems to be alluding vaguely to racist and/or colonialist causes of the economic disparities; but labeling the disadvantaged places as "South" reinforces that colonialist view (cf. maps presented upside-down to avoid supposed biases), and also brings in connotations of specifically American political history (Union vs Confederacy kinda stuff, you know).
Excluding Australia and New Zealand also seems intellectually dishonest. If places like Moldova are "North" because of the physical reality rather than than economics, than Australia and New Zealand (which also were colonized) should be "South" (just as the wealthier parts of the Middle East are). The border isn't anything like straight, either.
If we want to highlight a problem with economic disparity, we should not turn up our noses at terms that are fundamentally about the economic disparity.
It's called the global south because it is poor. These terms (3rd world, developing world) are associated with poverty because they are a cluster of poor nations. The countries are poor because they're badly run. Their institutions are corrupt. Their population is under-educated and under-productive.
It can't value free, because there will always be a value judgement here.
It hurts. Yes, colonialism and a history of foreign exploitation has meant that global south nations have been dealt worse cards. But, the present is what it is. I'm sick of poor nations (like my own) feeding their delusions about the current state of their nation. The people have to learn to separate their identity as proud successors of a rich historic culture and their current state of disrepair. The inability to do so, keeps us poor and susceptible to further exploitation by local power brokers.
Just because twitter influencers use more offensive terms for these nations, doesn't mean that civil forums should overcompensate with euphemisms that hides the obvious judgement inherent to such groupings.
> It's the only serious candidate for being a ski-nation in all of mainland Asia
Indian Himalayas have ski resorts.
> If Nepal wanted, it could transform itself into a Bali style tourist destination and ascend towards being a middle economy.
Landlocked country with little natural resources. Who's funding this project? Watch a YouTube about the Kathmandu-Pokhara road. Infrastructure is not easy there.
> Nepal's refusal to leverage the (few) advantages of its geography is baffling.
They grow rice on hills, have a thriving mountaineering ecosystem, and build dense cities in the valleys large enough to support them. How are they not leveraging them?
> As a communist-adjacent nation, it has a closed off economy with deep suspicion towards free markets.
The county to their south went this way after the Raj, for what I believe are fair reasons. I can see how that influenced Nepal's hesitancy to open up more to international brands.
> Yet, the national messaging alternates between blaming India or China for all their problems.
They aren't wrong! India had "interstate entry taxes" up until 2017 - taxes that cargo had to pay in each state on the way to the ports. It wasn't even the just the national governments making life harder to Nepali, it was individual states!
> However, do the protesters have an outcome in mind
Their anger is justification enough. It's tough for college graduates in the region to find a career that matches their education level.
> But, will they be okay with opening Nepal up to free markets?
Nepal isn't as closed to free markets as you keep insinuating. There are malls with Asian brands where people can go shop. Not having as many American brands makes sense given the logistics problems. There are western restaurants. There are western hotel brands. There are Indian hotel brands.
> This may mean selling resort building contracts to major western ski companies.
Taj, Oberoi, Leela (Indian resort brands) could probably build a wonderful one. And they haven't, I presume they have the numbers demonstrating this doesn't work economically.
> It may mean opening unsafe sweatshops for Adidas to make shoes there.
There's no world where that makes sense economically. See my note about India previous state tariffs/state taxes. Just presume there's all sorts of hidden middlemen between KTM and ports.
> It may mean resource exploration by foreign mining companies.
China would be there already if it was viable (read more about the few roads north to China)
> with steep political costs (Farm Bill, GST) to the the incumbent.
Your wording makes me think you are Indian. If I'm correct, The best thing you can do is encourage more Indians to go enjoy what Nepal has to offer now, so they can afford to invest in some of the improvements you propose :)
Might be the wrong reasons, but highly skewed and externally controlled social media do not necessarily mean bastions of free speech, they have shown that powerful group with right incentives and structures can capture and influence perception. Everyone has biases and social media will reinforce or amplify them if an external adversary uses in a targeted way.
Also while free speech and protests are important, the nature of protests or certain elements fuelling fire in the resentment can lead to these becoming completely out of control and destroying property or harming passersby. Sometimes pure anarchy is the goal of routine rabble rousers who use this opportunity. So I will go out on a limb over here and say no one over here really knows what happened in the sequence of decision making by the police and there may be some instances where certain actions may have been justified to avoid further escalation.
These governments that block social media or control/monitor the internet to avoid critics of government or dissent, whether that be Nepal, Tunisia, Turkey, UK, Germany, China, Egypt, US, Russia, Israel, are always shocked when there is an uprising. Unsurprisingly when a government tries to control people this closely many will see the flaws in it and make a stand and rightly so whether that be digitally or in person. It's understandable why so many tech knowledgeable dissidents create or use apps that bypass ridiculous laws.
> These governments that block social media or control/monitor the internet to avoid critics of government or dissent, whether that be Nepal, Tunisia, Turkey, UK, Germany, China, Egypt, US, Russia, Israel, are always shocked when there is an uprising.
I beg to differ. I don’t think that any of these governments are shocked that the people eventually fight back. I think that they simply make the mistake of underestimating the power of the people (especially when united) and severely overestimating their ability to suppress the people and their dissent. That’s how tyranny works.
That said, freedom of speech is always worth fighting for! Once you lose your right to speak freely, it’s only a matter of time before you start to lose everything else.
Why are you dancing around the issue instead of answering the question? What was the point of making that comment? "Giving a history lesson" is simply bullshit. If you want to say that you're pro-censorship then just say it.
Please make yourself aware of all the facts before posting ignorant comments like this. Children died, shot while protesting against blatant corruption and lack of accountability that's going on for decades. The social media ban was just the final straw.
I wish my government would ban those attention traps too...
Or perhaps less hyperbolicly, I wish people wouldn't use those platforms for their valuable free speech, and perhaps save their words for only the most valuable of utterances. But then they would all be here on HN. ;)
A ban would be a terrible idea. Some appropriate regulation and breaking up of monopolies might improve the situation. It's heartening to see the EU initiatives.
This is novel. I didn’t know this was happening and am learning a lot from informed comments. That…doesn’t tend to describe those other topics’ discourse.
I think it is a fair question: why is this allowed to stay on the front page while the deaths of people in Gaza is not? Israel just killed a bunch of journalists for organizations like the Associated Press in a double tap strike on a hospital and we're not allowed to discuss it?
> the meme of all protests and civil discontent in Asia being the product of Western influence is a popular one among right-wing circles
I listen to enough "right-wing circles" to end up getting people tarnishing me as one just for standing up for them (despite all kinds of progressive views) and I frankly don't know what you're talking about. My friends that tend to get interpreted as "right-coded" have historically been supportive of protest movements in Taiwan and Hong Kong.
What's missing in this discussion is the infiltration by agitating forces trying to muddy the waters. There are the regressive forces trying to bring back the monarchy which can't be good for anyone.
"In Nepal, “jhola” (bag) turned into “jholay” is slang. It usually refers to people—often students, activists, or intellectual types—who carry a cloth bag (jhola) and are associated with being overly “bookish,” pseudo-intellectual, leftist, or idealistic. Depending on tone, it can be affectionate, neutral, or dismissive (like calling someone a “hippie” or “armchair intellectual” in English)."
EDIT: sounds like "my friend" is hallucinating. Thanks, actual people for helping me understand jholay. It seemed lazy though to simply ask in the comments, "What's jholay?"
Nepali here. In this context, a jholey is a party foot soldier. An unquestioning party worker who would literally carry their leader's bag, follow them everywhere, and do any menial task in hopes of gaining political favor.
My understanding is a jholey is a sycophant who does not have their own political principles but are "carrying the bag" for someone else. Closer to paid thugs than idealistic activists. Might want to consider a different phone a friend.
https://archive.is/zv17z
(reposting as a top level comment, thanks to original poster)
It was absolutely not just social media ban, it was mostly youth protesting against the corrupt government and unfairness, social media ban was one element that was against the freedom of speech, but it was right around the time where everyone was documenting the rich politicians, their business connections and their families that have been living lavishly and just inheriting the election seats from generation to generation and spinning beurocracy to their sides.
I was there a few hours ago. It was a class struggle, but it was bound to be spun up as "kids don't get facebook and throw tantrum".
The corruption is simply incredible. About fifteen years ago I found myself in Kathmandu after getting altitude sickness. The team's fixer brought me to lunch with some government officials. The topic of discussion? How to steal from a hydroelectric project. One of his guests outright asked, "should we be talking about this in front of this guy?" The fixer shrugged it off saying "he's a Westerner, what is he going to do about it?" And, well, he was right. It wasn't like I could go report it to the police.
Years later the fixer was finally jailed for gold smuggling. https://english.khabarhub.com/2022/16/232667/
Edit: add link
You don't know how incredible the corruption is. It goes from all levels. From president and prime minster to all the way down to a lowly clerk in your local government office. Nothing works without bribes. The big heads are raking out millions. I left the country only a few years ago. It is the sole reason I never want to be back there.
The desperation from the youth is so heart breaking when there is no jobs creation, no industry. Depending on their ability they go and work in middle east doing all those dangerous work in the desert heat. The country is empty of youth. If you go to the airport you will see thousands leaving the country each day. Coffins of workers who died in middle east.
The political parties? They are profiting for everything. In the last 10-15 years there were basically 3 guys who would become the prime minister in round robin always blame opposition when in government and always blame government when in opposition. Its like 1984 but without the surveillience but that also caught up with the ban of social media.
re corruption:
I was flying from Kathmandu to Bangkok in 2000 and I couldn't book a ticket on the plane until the day it flew as 'half the plane' was reserved for 'Government Officials' 'just in case'. Amusingly they were all on one side of the plane too, the side that can see Mount Everest during the flight.
Honestly that’s kind of polite in a strange way.
They could have just bumped anyone when they needed a ticket.
I don’t quite see how this is indicative of corruption
It’s a shadow tax on non-government consumers. Imagine if you ran a restaurant and had to always keep a table free for the mayor’s family.
People really don't have an understanding of just how destructive this kind of corruption is. Extorting the current businesses is only the direct effect.
The longer term is literal desolation. People simply do not start business as time goes on so there is nothing to exploit as time passes. Business that exist simply don't operate in that country anymore so there is not even anything to buy if you have money. Then the violence and enslavement starts.
People do which is why when a police officer that asks for money during a traffic stop is told to fuck off in a Western country. Smart people did this math as far back as the 19th century.
You used the word "always", the person I responded to didn't.
> I was flying from Kathmandu to Bangkok in 2000 and I couldn't book a ticket on the plane until the day it flew as 'half the plane' was reserved for 'Government Officials' 'just in case'.
The "just in case" sounds like speculation to me so all it sounds like is the flight they were on was reserved.
But just the side of the plane that has the best view. If you don't recognize that as corruption...
I believe the implication is that those seats would in fact be available to you if you knew who to bribe. And the fact that they were all on the Everest-facing side of the plane suggests that whoever controlled those seats realized that they could get a premium for them.
Also, (speculation warning) it could be the government paying for airline seats to "keep them available" is a kickback. That is, lobbyist paying government officials for a contract that is not needed.
Just went to look you up on your profile to see why you might be hanging out with government officials, and just fyi your website link seems gone.
One of my college friends is a documentary filmmaker. He dragged me along as he followed a group of glaciologists up to a high-risk melt lake in the Himalayas. Somewhere above 16,000 feet I got altitude sickness and headed back to Kathmandu ahead of the group.
I got stuck in the city for two or three days waiting for my flight, under the supervision of the team's local fixer. This guy had his finger in every pie: tourism, automobile importing, etc. I wound up at lunch with him because his assistant wasn't available to play tour guide.
Edit: I'll add that I got lucky getting sick. Shortly after my flight out a large earthquake struck, stranding the rest of the group in the Khumbu for nearly a week.
That actually sounds like a documentary I’d like to watch. Was it ever released?
You managed to make melting ice sound exciting.
I don't think he ever released it as a feature. Here's some footage he shot on an expedition earlier the same year: https://youtu.be/ZN8a-pP60wk?feature=shared
It's not terribly unusual to end up with random government officials if you're a white guy going into a non-touristy part of the 3rd world. I went to a village in Paraguay, first thing locals did was take me to some government project creating an industrial cow milking operation where I was promptly offered an engineering job.
Low-level 3rd world officials love showing off whatever they're doing to whoever will listen. They usually don't have much else to do. It is best to accept their offer and drink the tea with them or whatever, get on their good side and talk about how modern their little village is, and get on their good graces.
Here in East Africa some people tell me that it should be easy to find a job for me, but I must be talking to the wrong people. Not lamenting, just sharing how different the experience can be...
Not just there (waves at East Africa, where I used to live).
I live in New York (Long Island). People are constantly telling me that I should be having jobs thrown at my feet, considering my skills and track record.
That was not the case, which is why I'm retired.
If I were an inexperienced young buck, living in Brooklyn, that might be the case, but not for an old expert, out on The Island.
It's likely that it's difficult to get capital in East Africa. I knew many very smart, educated people, when I lived there.
On Long Island, it's easy to get capital for non-tech stuff, but tecchies are kind of ghetto, out here.
er, sorry if this is a stupid question, but nowadays couldn't you just work remotely?
Does location matter as much in 2025 when there are oodles of remote first companies out there?
Age, more than location, when it comes to remote. Companies really like to see smiling young people, in their Hollywood Squares.
Just a guess but "east africa" while refusing to name country likely means someplace that theoretically you can wire money to, but in practice the AML control will start flagging like crazy and you get all your account shut down for even trying and no US based employer is going to touch with a 10 foot pole. If it were someplace like Kenya they would say, I'm guessing it's more like Somalia or Eritrea.
I suspect Tanzania, Kenya, or Uganda (the Crested Crane logo), or maybe even Europe.
http://codingforafrica.at/about.html (no HTTPS option)
I sincerely wish them luck.
Five years ago yes, today no.
East Africa is extremely competitive for labor, skilled or otherwise. So unless you're bringing capital, it's gonna be challenging.
Kenya?
I'm from Paraguay. Can you elaborate? Which village? TIA.
It was close to "New Italy" (in Spanish), somewhere within 50 miles of Asuncion.
I don't know much about Agriculture Engineering but there were a bunch of big milk vats, a couple electricians, and then a bunch of officials sitting around drinking the cold Yerba Matte stuff.
I assume they brought me because they heard I was an electrical engineer and I saw they were wiring the place up.
> they heard I was an electrical engineer
Just an add to what has been said. This might be because they heard you are an electrical engineer. I really don't know your qualifications, but here (in Paraguay), electrical engineering is a different degree than electronical engineering.
You might be versed in electronics as your primary field, but since they heard you are an electrical engineer, they thought you could check out the facility's electrical wiring setup.
Thus, if you do mainly electronics, you might want to present yourself here (in Paraguay) as an electronics/electronical engineer.
Yes I was totally unqualified for what they were doing.
Also pretty big language barrier because my Spanish is pretty bad. And Guarani, forget it.
I could probably "fake" it enough to do it now, but not back then.
They were extremely nice though and it was cool to check out a farming project. I would have liked to see some of the more remote farms but never got around to it.
Paraguay felt very much to me like the midwest / "Iowa/Ohio" of South America. Extremely practical hidden gem that is easily overlooked, but makes you feel right at home. Even in Asuncion I felt quite safe. Seems like the country is very active in fostering getting agricultural investment and development.
> Paraguay felt very much to me like the midwest / "Iowa/Ohio" of South America
Funny that you say that. I am by no means a countryside person, I'm as urbanite as any other. But while I never was in Iowa or Ohio (save for a short layover), I lived in West Michigan, and therefore in the Midwest, for some time; and yes, despite the climate being quite different, things seemed somewhat familiar to me in many aspects.
> I assume they brought me because they heard I was an electrical engineer
Yeah, that adds up. Small cities in South America usually have difficulty attracting qualified people to work there. It's a bit better now than it was 10 years ago, though.
Oh yeah, I know Nueva Italia. Will try to locate the project. Thanks for the specifics!
The first world version is local politicians getting their photo in the town newspaper.
I mean, it's not an uncommon job. Hasn't everyone hung out with a "government official" at some point? Even the people who work the counter at the DMV are government officials, technically. (And are perfectly capable of engaging in corruption, if there is insufficient oversight.)
It doesn't sound like the parent commenter was having lunch with the president. Just some random bureaucrats overseeing a construction project.
And they were discussing all this in English, or can you speak Nepali?
The corruption is a cultural issue and each of those protesters would ask for bribes if they ever get into power.
I think its quite something that we all waste our time over divisions like left/right, capitalism/socialism, woke/not-woke when in practice; this is the only division that matters. Those who are trying to follow the rules and make the nation better, and those that are only active for their self-interest.
There’s an interesting book “What is Wong with the World”, which points out that despite everyone agreeing that things are broken and people should unite to fix them, there are many competing visions for what “fixed” looks like, and this is been the source of much of the contention.
It was written in the early 1900s.
While I agree there is contention about "what's wrong", there's a bit of a difference between "I should put government money into my pocket" and "I think local district zoning laws need reform".
I believe OP is saying the most fundamental thing is people working in government acting moral and in the interest of the country, and not using the power position for self enrichment or engaging in petty corruption for social gain. If you have that then it doesn't matter if your system is capitalist or socialist or a bunch of competing variations where no one agrees. The outcome will always be severely hampered by their constant interference in business, plundering of tax money, and repression of dissent.
Most people probably universally agree on the topic of corruption, unlike economics or social policy. But it requires a well designed political system and a strong culture, which is difficult to do retroactively.
In poor countries everyone lives in a scarcity mindset, even the ultra rich. It's a lot like the supernatural stimulus that makes humans crave junk food and sugar. Some indian communities are prone to obesity because storing as much fat as possible was the only way to survive in the famines that happened under the british rule. Only people whose bodies could do that survived.
This sounds nice until you think more closely about the framing implicit in “follow the rules and make the nation better”. Who makes the rules and defines what is good for a nation?
sorry, "rule following" is possibly a sub-optimal language choice. I more mean the sort of selfishness that leads to corruption. Those who see their turn in government less about directing the nation and more as their turn to line their pockets and abuse their power.
True, and yet...
I think there is broad consensus that too much poverty is a problem, and (perhaps somewhat less broad) that therefore too much wealth inequality is a problem. I think there's fairly broad consensus that college costs are a problem, that healthcare costs and access are a problem. I think there's a fair consensus that fixing these things would make the nation better.
Then you get to "how do we fix them?" and all consensus disappears.
As for the rules, it seems pretty clear to me that "the rules" are the Constitution and the existing law, plus the rules on how to pass or repeal laws.
But this framing also misses one category: Those who think that they should break the rules to make the nation better. I think that they are misguided at best and lying (either to others or to themselves) at worst.
Why misguided? Because preserving the rule of law is a really big deal. Even if they have the best of intentions, once they knock the law down flat and pave a road over it, they won't be the only one to drive on it. Tyrants try to build that road; if it's already there, the tyrant's job becomes much easier and much harder to stop.
So I oppose such tactics. It doesn't matter whether they are well-meaning or not. Even if the person doing them will never be a tyrant, the next person who wants to be a tyrant will find the door wide open.
I see another problem with rules, that being the little rules that were put in place to solve some social issue at a time and are now out of place but waiting to be used as a stick on someone who's a burden on the establishment. It's hard to look forward when you're always looking over your shoulder. We need a github for law makers, the law needs PRs with documentation for the reason the law needs changing, and links to the research that brought a conclusion. And tests to make sure the law isn't unfairly impacting an unintended audience. Or just having a negative impact in general.
Majority opinion can look like consensus. And yet things like wealth inequality make for an uneven distribution of opinion where the minority end up having the most votes in effect.
Exactly. The problems with both governments and corporations come from when individuals working for them are able to act "above the law", and get away with things that if done by a solitary, poor person would land that person in jail. In a truly just society nobody would be above the law.
That's probably a healthy way to see things. Ideally all people that are actively working to create or improve should be on the same "side" against those that are destructive. The second order conflict then becomes what the rules are, and how we guide that side. That is, I think, where most of the factionalism historically plays out. It does feel like we're regressing to fighting that first order conflict more often now though.
In reality, it may be more complicated than that though. Most people don't see themselves as destructive, they just have a very different view of what the right rules are and what ought to be done to progress things. That can appear destructive from the outside.
> Most people don't see themselves as destructive, they just have a very different view of what the right rules are and what ought to be done to progress things. That can appear destructive from the outside.
I think that's partly true. e.g. pro life vs pro choice I can see both sides pushing for what they think is right.
Some people though do bad things, knowing those things are bad. But they do it anyways because it benefits them. So maybe it's not seeing themselves as being "destructive" per se, but at least not caring about the negative consequences to others.
I think tax cuts are possibly a decent enough proxy for this subject? While there's certainly a case to be made for tax cuts in very specific use-cases (e.g. where they're strangling demand/innovation/living costs/government-corruption/etc); a general belief in tax cuts is a constraint that makes it very hard to believe in society.
If you believe in tax cuts as a principle (i.e. 0% is a goal), then generally its hard to support government spending, which means its hard to support solving problems within your society, because doing so makes it harder to cut taxes. So with that in mind, I personally think people who believe in the Von Mises model of taxation (i.e. "all taxation is theft") are ideologically incompatible with any sort of society that tries to solve its own problems.
You seem to be assuming that government action is the best way to solve social problems. Is that really true or are there better approaches? I think government has a role to play but often it overreaches, causing negative second-order effects and wasting tax money. For example, in the USA government subsidized student loans were intended to make higher education more accessible to deserving low-income students. But in practice we now see a lot of students going to college who don't really belong there just because they can finance it, and much of the money goes into the pockets of useless administrators who contribute nothing to actual education. So naturally taxpayers are skeptical about turning over even more money to the government.
> You seem to be assuming that government action is the best way to solve social problems.
I would suggest that the context of government is superior than the context of the individual or localised groups in solving issues in a fair and just manner, as long as its institutions are well balanced. That's because it has a national perspective as opposed to a localised one. In practice there is a balance at play that is necessary, I think there is arguably a tyranny in only one of these two choices. The principal issue with giving up on the federal level is that minorities will be disadvantaged.
I think you are downvoted because your first sentence is misinterpreted, or the rest of your argument is not being read?
You are giving an example of a position and later on discussing the people who have this position as their first and main principle. Seems like a valid example to me, but perhaps people can explain why not.
Yeah, it's unfortunate. I disagree with this portion of the point he's making, but I don't see why people would treat it as not being valuable to the conversation at hand. I think it actually highlights the point of disagreement really well.
can you help me find a more poignant first-order disagreement to use? Perhaps my social democratic context is picking the wrong abstract in order to isolate a better platform of co-operation. In Europe we generally think that universal healthcare is somewhat of a given which sets up the context. In the UK at least (where I am from) belief in the NHS (national health service) is pretty much a political no-brainer.
I think you hit on it quite well with you statement about stealing public money in your parallel comment, which I generalized to simply "plundering the commons for personal gain". I have no idea why people would downvote the argument, but I think discussing that is generally frowned upon on HN.
I think this is a great example of a second-order disagreement.
How about people who genuinely believe in a minimal state? They often believe in charitable giving and local community organization, in my experience. Maximal civil society vs maximal government. A good example of this type is people who believe in the ideas laid out in Nozick's Anarchy, State, and Utopia. Even the more hard line Von Mises types are close to this. There are disgruntled people who are just asocial in that camp, like any other, but they are over emphasized by opponents just like every political group.
It would be very hard to argue that Nozick wasn't someone concerned with advancing society. The difference for that type is just a strong disagreement about how to do so. Painting them as first-order opponents is a mistake, I think.
> How about people who genuinely believe in a minimal state?
I agree that its technically a position but while that venn diagram may well include people who believe in charitable giving and local community organization its those who do not believe in those things (which I would argue constitute the majority of that position) who are the problem here. Even so, the idea that everyone gets to choose themselves what the issues are, belies a lack of unity and community that is close to what I'm trying to define. To respect society, one must give up an aspect of control.
Again, its not about tax in general, its the desire to get to 0% that is indicative of the sort of selfishness that defines the line I'm trying to draw.
> Painting them as first-order opponents is a mistake, I think.
You might be right. I think the bigger problem definitely are those who think stealing public money is ok to do.
> I agree that its technically a position but while that venn diagram may well include people who believe in charitable giving and local community organization its those who do not believe in those things (which I would argue constitute the majority of that position) who are the problem here.
I agree with your broader point. A hair to split is that I tend to see those "you leave me alone, I leave you alone" types as sort of side-line sitters. They're a neutral party who genuinely want to mostly opt out for one reason or another. I don't think that taking a stance of them either being with us or against us is healthy when there are so many genuinely destructive people.
> Even so, the idea that everyone gets to choose themselves what the issues are, belies a lack of unity and community that is close to what I'm trying to define. To respect society, one must give up an aspect of control.
Interesting. I'm curious what you mean here, as this could point a lot of different directions. Are you saying that you don't think individualism is healthy in general?
Do you mean that broad disunity and lack of alignment on societal values is dangerous? If so, I totally agree with that and wonder how it can be squared with modern multi-cultural pluralistic society. I don't, personally, believe in enforcing ideological conformity, but struggle to see how a society that doesn't believe in shared underlying mores can coordinate itself and have shared purpose.
> I think the bigger problem definitely are those who think stealing public money is ok to do.
No disagreement, and I think that's a good starting point. Those plundering the commons for personal gain are pretty clearly first-order opponents.
> I agree with your broader point. A hair to split is that I tend to see those "you leave me alone, I leave you alone" types as sort of side-line sitters. They're a neutral party who genuinely want to mostly opt out for one reason or another. I don't think that taking a stance of them either being with us or against us is healthy when there are so many genuinely destructive people.
I agree in principle, although there is a slight harmful component to it that I think is best described in defence (now WAR) spending. This is perhaps an element of taxation that most people do not see a direct benefit from, but in the scenario where they do suddenly need it, but don't have it, they lose absolutely everything. Its almost akin to the parental demand that a child eat its vegetables where the child doesn't see the point.
> Interesting. I'm curious what you mean here, as this could point a lot of different directions. Are you saying that you don't think individualism is healthy in general?
No, I think it is healthy but we also have to accept that we live in a society so that individualism must be tempered with a modicum of respect for others. We take much of this for granted, such as not murdering each other. Thankfully we are beyond the point where somebody takes to the air to decry their inability to arbitrary kill other people as some sort of government oppression.
I feel like part of the abstract of a more model citizen is accepting that sometimes society will do things that you don't necessarily agree with. For me there has to be some level of acceptance of this with arguments about ratios being entirely acceptable. I'm content for people to make that argument that tax cuts to 0.1% are okay if they result in the sort of growth where that 0.1% can actually cover the problem solving fund, but you have to accept that to some extent.
For example I live on the ground floor of an apartment block and would be insane for me to lobby our management firm to defund the elevator, which I partly pay for, despite never needing it. I accept that the elevator is part of my society of appartment block, despite it not directly benefitting me in the slightest.
I do agree that preppers/anarchists/von-mises are hardly the most destructive people out there, however their entirely individualistic attitudes do hold a parallel with those who think robbing the commons is ok. Especially since the whole "taxation is theft" idea creates a imbalance where robbing the commons is just redressing that balance. But I agree that we might be too zoomed in here to have the sort of impact we might hope for.
> I think is best described in defence (now WAR) spending
Yes, certainly. Security is actually the point "minimal state" (Nozick) crowd agree we need, which is why I pointed to them as opposed to the Von Mises hard liners. I see your point about the argument against this being harmful.
> I do agree that preppers are hardly the most destructive people out there, however their entirely individualistic attitudes do hold a parallel with those who think robbing the commons is ok.
Sure, I think I see the point you're making. I disagree with it partly, but it's a quibble and not really the point we're discussing, I think.
> I feel like part of the abstract of a more model citizen is accepting that sometimes society will do things that you don't necessarily agree with.
Yes, this is the heart of Social Contract theory. We agree we're going to give up some amount of control of our own lives and freedom in exchange for greater security and prosperity. Maybe that's a good lens to look at the original delineation we painted through. First-order opponents are violating that core Social Contract agreement by looting the commons. Second-order opponents adhere to the SC, but disagree with how we proceed within the agreement.
This is naive to the point of not being addressable.
I think you'll find thats only because you're incompatibly cringe. Once you sort that out, you'll find it scans ok.
I find it hard to downgrade my wisdom that much, even with hard liquor.
Maybe try upgrading it instead?
Cmon yo, if you got wisdom then drop it. So far all we got is judgement. Those ain't the same thing.
>we all waste our time over divisions like left/right, capitalism/socialism, woke/not-woke when in practice
This is by design( divide and rule...). And it works as intended.
Rich vs Poor is the only division, and that happens when you allow for concentrations of wealth. So I would say capitalism vs socialism is the rich vs poor division as well.
It's not the concentration of wealth, it is the concentration of power. Communism doesn't solve that problem. The less centralized your power is the more efficient your economy works. Pushing decisions down to the edge means the people deciding how to allocate resources are the closest to the information about what is needed where. The problem with highly centralized economies is that as an economy grows beyond a trivial size it's impossible for the centralized system to manage the flow of information from the edges. It doesn't scale. Also, honest competition is good for optimizing your resource allocation, if someone is ultimately in charge of both sides they will be inclined to try to choose just one and "avoid waste", which ultimately is just avoiding optimization. This is also why companies become less competitive as they grow and are always under threat from startups and a big reason why antitrust is about more than just "protecting consumers". That's also why big companies are always lobbying government for protection of their business models.
> It's not the concentration of wealth, it is the concentration of power.
Those are the same thing.
> The problem with highly centralized economies is that as an economy grows beyond a trivial size it's impossible for the centralized system to manage the flow of information from the edges. It doesn't scale.
That was true a few decades ago. Now with everyone having a smartphone in their pockets at all times and the amount of computing power we have it should be doable. Still not easy for sure, but not impossible.
> Also, honest competition is good for optimizing your resource allocation
Think about how much non-productive work has to be done just to enable competition. Instead of one organization per industry we need multiple, all with their own overhead costs. Every company has to do their branding, HR, marketing, etc. The whole advertising industry pretty much exists only because companies try to get an edge with propaganda instead of improving their product. Wasted work.
Competition also forces companies to do unethical things. Say one company starts cutting down rainforests to get an edge over the competition. Now they're cheaper than other businesses, and every business that wants to survive has to start cutting down rainforest. One country gets rid of worker rights -> businesses move there and other countries must follow suit. Same with taxes.
hard disagree, many OG and influentual socialists came from rich backgrounds. There's also lots of poor people out there who are simply waiting their opportunity to be corrupt. Anecdotally I've experienced many people from working class backgrounds who are extremely proud of their tax evasion. The key dividing line is those who follow the rules and believe in the system and those that don't and are just looking out for their own interests.
This further explains corruption within socialist systems where everyone is effectively "equal" but some people are still looking out for themselves over everyone else.
The problem is when the rules are made to sustain and exacerbate the social divide, not to make the life better for everybody.
No need to go far, just look at the result of lobbying in the USA.
Btw, while there are many famines caused by despots (Stalin's, Mao's, Red Khmer's), there is also Bengal's famine of 1943.
One must also point out that China in the last 40 years have done perhaps more regarding the poverty mitigation than anybody else in the human history (capitalism, especially the wild one, has actually quite patchy record...)
The Chinese people did all of the work, their government simply allowed them, returning some of their own money in the form of state investment. Who pays for "state" investment?
The Chinese government did a lot of smart policies, empowering their people to unleash their entrepreneurial drive, helping them with targeted investment where that was deemed to get good long term/strategic payoff. This was not passive 'let them do what they want', it was (and still is) an actively guided process - there is enough information about that in the net.
It also failed in many ways, but overall influence is highly positive, the results speak for themselves.
Failing to see that is a sign of ideological blindness.
> The problem is when the rules are made to sustain and exacerbate the social divide, not to make the life better for everybody.
perhaps "rules" was a poor choice of word. What I meant was more a belief in society in general, a belief in the nation, in fairness. I guess in one-word: selfishness. I believe the _real_ political divide is between those who are selfish and those who are not.
much better, thank you
still, ideological zealots really unselfishly believe in their case, whether that is fundamental christianity/islam/communism/capitalism (ok, maybe capitalism not, almost by definition, capitalism is about greed) and are willing to inflict unbelievable horrors in the name of their ideology
one should also not forget that there exist deep cultural differences and what is considered 'fair' and 'belief in society' is quite different e.g. between the western judo-christianism and eastern societies
Lobbying isn't used to exacerbate the social divide. It's used to achieve incremental policy wins and prevent incremental policy losses for the clients of the lobbyists. This is what the general public needs to do as well if they want the government to better represent their interests, but they have little interest in that. People willingly choose to exacerbate the social divide, and the overwhelmingly negative sentiment to lobbying is evidence of this.
Colonialism is a form of centralized planning, which catastrophically fails for the same reasons that it does in communist regimes.
China is evidence of capitalism's incredibly successful record of poverty mitigation. They've retained some communist style central planning, but the "bad" part of capitalism is unlimited accumulation of wealth, as mentioned upthread, which China allows just like any capitalist country.
Lobbying to create laws that benefit rich people/big corporations and make the life of ordinary people tougher directly exacerbate the socio-economic divide.
Telling the poor/weak to use the tools designed for rich/powerful is just obscuring the reality.
The reality being that the system is designed by rich, for rich, to maintain and improve their position.
"People willingly choose to exacerbate the social divide" What do you mean by that? People willing choose to be poor and powerless?
"Colonialism is a form of centralized planning" - no, colonialism (and neocolonialism) is a form of institutionalized looting, historically highly successful (see the graph of the GDP (as a percentage of the whole world GDP) of Great Britain vs India for a nice example)
No, the worst part of capitalism is unlimited accumulation of power, by the way of wealth buying/subverting the state. I suspect one of the reasons China was able to maintain its upward trajectory was their ability to separate the political power from the wealth (see the case of Jack Ma what happens if the wealth starts to impinge on political power in China). From the point of view of West, they did some highly questionable decisions that costed them trillions (squashing the blockchain miners, bursting property bubble, going hard after excessive gaming and internet time by kids) and would not be conceivable in the west, but overall might be net positive for the society at all.
> Telling the poor/weak to use the tools designed for rich/powerful is just obscuring the reality.
Lobbying is not a tool designed for the rich/powerful. It is literally just communicating with to politicians your interests. Corporations spend a lot on lobbying, but that's because they have to pay "corporate rates". Grass-roots organizations only need to pay for the basic expenses of their lobbyists. The NAACP successfully lobbied for multiple Civil Rights Acts with a much smaller budget than nonprofit organizations today.
> What do you mean by that? People willing choose to be poor and powerless?
Yes. People's reactions to corporations getting better at lobbying was to act like it's something only evil people do, so that they could feel better about themselves. As a result, grassroots lobbying has declined and knowledge of how to do so has been lost [1]. This is a gift to billionaires that they never could have dreamed of.
> institutionalized looting
Sure, but that is a central plan.
> No, the worst part of capitalism is unlimited accumulation of power
The CCP has unlimited power, which was why they could arbitrarily silence Jack Ma, without even formally accusing him of anything.
> by the way of wealth buying/subverting the state
This is a way bigger problem in China than the US. China does not collect enough tax revenue to fund its local governments, so many departments are essentially funded by corruption.
[1] https://apnews.com/article/nonprofits-lobbying-less-survey-1...
1.) "Lobbying is not a tool designed for the rich/powerful. It is literally just communicating with to politicians your interests. Corporations spend a lot on lobbying, but that's because they have to pay "corporate rates"." Sorry, no. In other countries what goes as 'lobbying' in US would be mostly classified as blatant corruption of the politics. Citizens United also...
Corporations are centralized entities that have access to a lot of money and (also through money) to lobbying specialists with know-how hot to push their interests.
Normal citizens face and uphill struggle in every step - they have to get organized, get money, get specialists. This is not a level playing field, and the argumentation that it is, is exactly what those with an advantage engage in.
Shouldn't voting for the people who represent your interests be actually enough? What the lobbying does is that whoever you vote-in, if not already corrupted, will be corrupted by the lobbyists. So democracy (will of the people) is just a theory, wool over your eyes, similarly as communism was, the practice is totally different. People are waking up to that, and that's the reason for the rise of all anti-system parties all over the west.
2.) more grass-roots involvement: yes. Thinking that that is enough: hell no, people did that, got disillusioned when that repeatedly yields minimal results
3.) Colonisation of North America was not a central plan. You repeatedly bringing central plan just points to your ideological blinders.
4.) Ultimately, it is not about who has the power and where does the legitimacy of power come from, but how is that power wielded. Wield it to improve the lives of your citizens, you gain legitimacy even if you got the power in an illegitimate way. Wield it to enrich a narrow elite, at the expense of everybody else, and you will start to lose the legitimacy, even if you originally got it fairly. Nothing new there.
What is new is that the elites in China managed the country in a way that significantly improved the lives of its citizens, while the elites in the west managed their way into dystopian future ruled by mega-corporations, with melting middle class and unsustainable levels of debt.
This goes against the prevailing wisdom in the west that liberal democracies are the only ones capable of taking care of their citizens, while the authoritarian rest is just a cesspool of corruption and inept governance.
Other examples of authoritarian countries reaching (or at least starting in a significant way their path to) prosperity are Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan... (all of them were authoritarian at the time their economic boom started and progressed).
> In other countries what goes as 'lobbying' in US would be mostly classified as blatant corruption of the politics.
Sorry, but you have no idea what you're talking about. Every democratic country has professional lobbyists.
> Corporations are centralized entities that have access to a lot of money and (also through money) to lobbying specialists
Indeed the purpose of money is to purchase goods and services. That doesn't contradict anything that I said. My point is that you don't need a lot of money to lobby. There are plenty of people who are willing to lobby for just causes for their bare minimum expenses. Nowadays, people have forgotten it is even an option.
> Normal citizens face and uphill struggle in every step - they have to get organized, get money, get specialists.
Achieving goals requires investment and effort. Boo hoo. The demographic that frequents HN absolutely has the time and money to make meaningful changes in the world that they complain about, yet they act like they're helpless victims.
> Shouldn't voting for the people who represent your interests be actually enough?
For one, voters only care about vibes. They don't give a shit about policy. Mitch McConnell reassured fellow Republicans that voters would "get over" the Medicaid cuts. He may be evil, but he is good at what he does and is 100% correct here. This attitude goes across the political spectrum. The most popular politicians on the left (e.g. AOC and Sanders) have some of the weakest
Even in a best case scenario of an informed voter base, voting still isn't enough. Politicians and their dozen or so staffers can't be experts in every aspect of society.
> Colonisation of North America was not a central plan.
It's almost as if you brought up a famine in a different continent. Colonization of land and resources is different from the colonization of a people, which is central planning.
> Ultimately, it is not about who has the power and where does the legitimacy of power come from, but how is that power wielded.
I don't really disagree with anything below.
> Capitalism has done more to overcome hunger and poverty than any other system in world history. The most devastating man-made famines over the past 100 years all occurred under socialism – in the 1930s alone, according to a range of estimates, between five and nine million people died in the Soviet Union from famines caused by the socialist collectivisation of agriculture.
> The end of communism in China and the Soviet Union was a major factor in the 42 percent reduction of hunger between 1990 and 2017.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/is-capitalism-to-blame-for-hu...
adamsmith.org/blog
Is that really what passes for a "You can't blame capitalism" source on this damn site?
It's impossible to say with any certainty that was down to an economic system change and not the myriad of other issues plaguing the Soviet states.
And maybe on balance hunger went down, but in particular for a whole lot of those Soviet states, the transitions from the failing "communist" state and the market-based alternatives was incredibly harsh and involved a whole lot of starving as the prices of food and other critical goods soared out of reach of Soviet citizens, not even going into the psychological effects.
Also also, insofar as "communism" "failed" (the USSR was incredibly authoritarian and corrupt, many communists and socialists take big issues with them or China for that matter being called communist but I digress), it "failed" alongside a host of economic sanctions brought upon it by it's Capitalist neighbors, utterly terrified at it's very existence. I mean Christ calling someone communist is still an insult in the United States, and an attack on a politician here too, decades after the Red Scare supposedly ended.
What sanctions? The USA and Canada literally sold huge quantities of grain to the USSR even during the height of the Cold War. Without those food sales even more Soviet citizens would have gone hungry.
> The end of communism in China and the Soviet Union was a major factor in the 42 percent reduction of hunger between 1990 and 2017.
This sounds like a complete BS. There were no starving people in the Soviet Union and its satellites after a brief post-war period. They had no luxuries all year round like exotic fruits, but the basics were covered. They had also vastly more educated population than the US. Just their governance and understanding of economics didn't consider the innate selfishness of humans and the need to dominate and outdo others so supply-demand laws didn't work well. China fixed that part later by allowing private corporate ownership and throwing its population into a Darwinian environment while keeping minimal social standards for the unlucky ones. North Korea, Cambodia and Laos would be the only "communist" countries where famines were still present.
In a socialist system you still need a government, which is a group of people who are empowered to enforce the rules of socialism. As a result, they end up having access to most of the collective wealth as well.
If they are very good socialists they will redistribute it all. If they are not-very-good socialists they will redistribute some of it and reserve some to support a nice lifestyle for themselves and their families. They won’t personally “own” mansions, airplanes, factories, etc. like capitalists do, but they still control them legally so the practical effect is very similar.
"As a result, they end up having access to most of the collective wealth as well." Umm, it does not work like that, look at the Scandinavian-type socialism.
The collective wealth is in the functioning education & health system, social support net, working public transport and such. Not a type of wealth that the government can usurp for themselves, to the detriment/exclusion of the remainder of the society.
Too much ideological argumentation here...
No, you don’t need a centralized government in all social systems.
Centralized government is the big distinction here. Libertarian socialism of a decentralized government.
The problem with broad generalizations like that is you will make enemies of allies and allies of enemies, only you won't realize it and fail to understand why people aren't 100% behind your agenda. This is itself a form of corruption.
I can make a generalization that Nazis are bad. I want Nazis to be my enemies. I think we can all agree to that. Well, maybe not all of us, but I don’t mind if these enemies don’t see this and don’t become my allies. I don’t wanna be allies with Nazis.
But are you so anti-Nazi that you're committed to defeating Nazis that you're willing to overlook the transgressions of pedophiles and white supremacist as long as the help you defeat the Nazis? Or would you rather not align yourself with those parties while still trying to defeat the Nazis?
My point, which I think you misunderstood, was that making generalization will find you in bed with racists and pedophiles.
I don’t have generalizations, I have morals. And those morals would not find me in bed with pedophiles or racists either. What a weird thing to say.
Generalizing that Nazis are bad is based on my morals not on an idea.
> I don’t have generalizations
Earlier...
> I can make a generalization that Nazis are bad.
To quote you:
> What a weird thing to say.
Yes, because all rules have been created for your own good, so you must follow without ever questioning them. The world is more nuanced than your silly black-and-white duality, unless it's a Twitter argument and it's all about dividing the world in convenient us-vs-them boxes.
Your account seems relatively new, so you might be unfamiliar with the rule to be charitable here. If you'd like to be snarky and lower the bar for discourse, Reddit is a much better place to do that (though ideally it would be kept out of public spaces altogether).
I think you're misunderstanding my point. Either you believe in the society you live in, or you don't. The story specifically speaks of people high up within that society that do not believe in it and are using their position to undermine that society in order to benefit themselves.. That, for me, is the #1 problematic archetype of person.
Its not just about the rules and if you follow them or not, its about the belief in turn-taking, in other people having the same rights as you, a belief that in society; everyone is important, everyone is mostly equal and that the society should be fair. Perhaps my phrasing could be improved? For the most part I am simply trying to define the difference between people being selfish and not.
> Either you believe in the society you live in, or you don't.
This makes GP even more correct. One can believe (and like) part of the society one lives in but not like other parts, or plainly think they are wrong and should be changed at all costs.
GP?
> One can believe (and like) part of the society one lives in but not like other parts, or plainly think they are wrong and should be changed at all costs.
Sure but I mean in terms of the abstract. The idea that those most successful may have to pay more in taxation, the idea that justice should be blind and that everyone deserves a trial. I guess the tipping point is when your belief in the part of society that are wrong are so extreme that you think its ok to undermine society (e.g. steal public money, push infront of queues, etc) in order to combat that "wrong".
Reminscient of Sri Lanka in 2022 (I was there). The lack of petrol and powercuts were the straw that broke the back of a camel that had been overburdend for several decades. Foreign "experts" and "analysts" trying to make sense of these events often sound either hilarious or condescending to locals who are living through them.
I was thinking exactly the same. I was not there at the time, but I have family there and have lived there.
It was amazing how many people who were not usually politically active joined the protests, and that they attracted support across racial divisions.
I think one of the problem with outside experts is that they try to reframe it in terms of the issues in their countries. For example, I have read articles trying to use Sri Lanka's excessive borrowing as a warning against modern monetary theory, which is either dishonest or incompetent - and I very much doubt the govt were even thinking in terms of MMT.
BTW I have probably met you at some point. I know Gehan from when i worked at Millennium (I was only there about an year).
Sri Lanka was borrowing from China and as you know China is the big enemy of the West.
The fact that Western countries aren't investing in Sri Lanka is always conveniently ignored. The CCP aren't geniuses they just fill a vacuum.
Here's another example of what I mentioend in the grandparent post. Geopolitical misconceptions about West vs. China aside, the debt proportion held by China vs. ISB holders could have been easily looked up online.
Quite similar corruption is happening here in America! Donald trump made over $3.8B since getting into office this year, while tanking farming, jobs market, and foreign relations.
That number can’t be right, must not be right, do you have a source for that?
I put that number from the lower end, but actuals are closer to $10B, if all his corruption is totaled together. Just making himself great! The key is - when he points anything at others or asks to do something for country, it is actually about himself.
For instance check this https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-family-amasses-...
Here is the most detailed analysis so far: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/08/18/the-number
You can look up the figure pretty easily but from what I’ve glanced it seems to be related to his and his son’s crypto schemes, touted through official WH channels
> related to his and his son’s crypto schemes
That's just one channel. There's more -
1. As of September 2025, Donald and Melania Trump have launched several crypto-related ventures, including meme coins named $TRUMP and $MELANIA and digital asset firms.
2. He's a majority shareholder in Trump Media n Tech Co. Many have bought shares in that co just to please him https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/
3. The Trump family has launched several cryptocurrency ventures. An investment fund backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has made a $2 billion investment in a stablecoin issued by the Trump family's World Liberty Financial. This investment is estimated to generate about $80 million in annual interest for the Trumps.
4. Trump-branded properties are in development across the Middle East, including a golf resort in Qatar and residential towers in Dubai and Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. DAMAC Properties, a Dubai-based developer and long-time Trump business partner, also has ties to Trump-affiliated golf courses in Dubai and has announced major U.S. investments. Those deals were made during this year's trip.
Unlike those that came before him of course, who are just regular folk like us making ends meet.
Provide evidence for one US Politician who cleared more than $500MM in grifting. Trump's crypto payments are 100% public data.
Feels like we are watching a poor man's caligola
He made that with the business he already had and some legal cryptocurrency investment based on capitalizing his fame.
How on earth you call that "corruption"?
Are you even aware of what the word means?
When the dude's family is simultaneously launching and/or on the board of directors of many 'crypto' scams, while he is in office promoting the government owned use of crypto, its pretty much corruption of the first order.
The dude wouldn't even divest himself of his businesses, nor would he reveal his tax returns, both items which would go a significant way toward easing everyone's concerns. (well, maybe actually looking at the tax returns would make everyone a lot more concerned...)
And members of congress have their spouses just make totally legal stock market trades because they happen to be genius investors, don’t you dare suggest otherwise!
Is it not literally bribery, which is definition number 1 for corruption?
A president using his status in government to influence private business deals certainly feels like corruption
How could "buy and hold my crypto pump and dump or Ill cut aid/hike tariffs to your country" not be corruption?
People who voted for him are still trying to work out in their own heads how he's not a criminal.
They aren't really trying, they admire crooks who get away with it.
I'm frankly amazed that not a small portion of the population seriously believe that he's not corrupt and is genuinely trying to do what's best for the country. Many believe he's making a personal financial sacrifice in doing so. And this despite the mountains of evidence. I mean the man isn't even trying to hide it.
I'm not trying to be snarky here, just curious and seriously trying to understand the thought process. Not sure if I'll get a response here, but if we just take one example of trump coin and dinner invite for those bought a lot of it. How do you justify that? And if Biden or Obama did the same thing, launch their coin which they have control over while being president. Invite people that they can directly benefit or harm with their position to buy and hosts a person dinner for those that bought a lot of it, would you be as forgiving?
Political corruption entails at least one of: - Bribery - Embezzlement of public form - Nepotism, cronyism, or patronage
You can accuse him of beign inmoral, but “corruption” has a very specific meaning.
He's taking bribes. That is what the crypto is for.
Would recommend enrolling in STEP [1] as a precaution (assuming you’re American).
[1] https://mytravel.state.gov/s/step
agreed. you don't kill 19 kids protesting social media ban. it goes far far far deeper than that.
Has the country always been this corrupt? Has the corruption progressively risen or was it a drastic change? to openly plot is wild imo.
Fellow Nepali here. Corruption has always been blatant in Nepal, but in the past it was mostly limited to the monarchs and a small circle around them. With democracy, however, it feels like everyone in power has become corrupt. It’s reached a point where corruption is so normalized that people compare leaders based on the degree of their corruption, rather than whether they are corrupt at all. On top of that, the children of these politicians and officials openly flaunt their Gucci, LV, and Ferraris on social media—in a country where just one of their bags costs more than what an average Nepali earns in a whole year.
This is insane tbh. Although i think we should view every politician as corrupt and dirty by default lol i sympathize with nepal this sucks man. (Thanks for the reply btw)
The open plotting happens in western countries too, my friend. I have personally been witness to it. The irony is that the same reasons that were give for not "reporting" things is also similar to why things in the west are not "reported", albeit due to far more sophisticated and complicated reasons. Must I remind you of all the examples of "whistleblowers" who were not protected, not lauded and championed, sometimes not even respected by the public they were acting in the name of. I have personal knowledge of very similar types of circumstances where people have "whistleblown" and at best, as Snowden back then indicated, even the most gross violations simply just fall on "def" ears, which is more like simply inaction; with you only having identified yourself as someone moral or principled in a system that is inherently immoral and unprincipled.
Just take a look at the whole Epstein files situation. Not to be too acute about it, but how is it wild to you that plotting would happen in the "third world" when it happens right in your face in the heart of the world empire, openly defying all of the most core Constitutionally enshrined principles, and even daring you to do something about it and also proving how powerless you/everyone is to even look the cabal that control the world in the eyes, let alone depose them.
Well if you think about it the most effective corruption is the one not being "caught" which will most likely be going on in more sophisticated and developed countries i presume.
Maybe what is even worse in a way, is the state of many developed countries where all the coruption is well documented in media, everyone knows what is going on and yet it does not really move people. I guess until you are in "good enough" state you are not forced to really fight.
Classic color revolution — China and India will be watching intently.
China and India are meddling in this. Nothing in Nepali politics happens without either China or India's hands or implicit blessing. Heck, regional Nepali politicans will literally vie for Nitish Kumar or Lalu Prasad Yadav's (the two perpetual CMs of Bihar) backing.
Even the Armed Forces(pro-India) and the Armed Police Force (pro-China) are at each others throats.
Whenever India feels Nepal is getting too close to China, a crisis happens. When China feels Nepal is getting to close to India, a crisis happens as well.
It's like how Iraqi and Lebanese politics is always meddled in by Saudi and Iran.
Also, the social media ban is extremely damaging.
Most students use Google and YouTube to study, and WhatsApp is heavily used by Nepalis both domestically and abroad (a large portion of Nepalis work abroad in India, the Gulf, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, and Japan as migrant workers) so people are cut off from communicating with each other and getting job offers.
> China and India are meddling in this. Nothing in Nepali politics happens without either China or India's hands or implicit blessing
Neither China nor India have so far meddled in this. It came as as surprise to both nations.
Also, neither China nor India control Nepal's social media. You would have to look at the yanks for that.
This is Nepal's self owned problem. Corruption has got entrenched into the system and you need fresh blood and a large number of hard-working politicians to fix these issues and make the government accountable.
We had many extensive corruption protests in India before the national BJP took over 15 years ago and Modi made bureaucrats accountable. Sadly, there has been some slacking after the initial years.
>WhatsApp is heavily used by Nepalis both domestically and abroad (a large portion of Nepalis work abroad in India, the Gulf, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, and Japan as migrant workers) so people are cut off from communicating with each other.
People need to start learning XMPP, cutting off of centralized services is only going to get worse.
Easier said than done for the tech-illiterate majority of the population.
First, Maldives.
Then, Bangladesh,
Now, Nepal.
An unstable Nepal allows the destabilization of two critical states in India.
Regime change in India is the big prize.
--
China and India do meddle.
But a classic color revolution, such as this one, is the signature of you-know-who.
> a classic color revolution, such as this one, is the signature of you-know-who
I literally don’t.
there's a conspiracy theory that every revolution of the past 100 years was caused by the cia.
I don't like comments like this, because while you're right that many people think everything happening everywhere is the CIA. The CIA (and US gov) _has_ been involved in an absurd amount of regime changes (that we know about). CIA involvement in something like this shouldn't be dismissed out of hand
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r...
If the CIA was even close to being that competent our foreign policy and intelligence wouldn’t be so horrible.
A lot of authoritarians just like to blame their self grown domestic problems on the CIA. China having another stock market crash? The CIA must have done it.
Yes and no. Very few contemporary governments are accusing the CIA of starting color revolutions, especially nowadays.
But historically there are definitely examples of the CIA achieving this. Iran's 1953 coup was overwhelmingly successful and a joint operation between MI6 and CIA. The consequences irrevocably tipped the balance of power away from Pan-Arabism and towards a globalist, American-driven order.
> If the CIA was even close to being that competent our foreign policy and intelligence wouldn’t be so horrible.
True, if the goal of the CIA is to provide quality intelligence to the elected US government. That's a pretty big assumption, though.
> CIA involvement in something like this shouldn't be dismissed out of hand
Without evidence, yes, it should be. Just as it should be dismissed, if proposed without evidence, that this was the product of Indian, Chinese or Iranian meddling. Particularly when we have credible evidence going the other way of legitimate reasons a population would flip out.
US with its control of social media etc can push a narrative to instigate population of friendly or unfriendly countries. There's no way to know say for sure whether the protests were organic or inorganic.
Every country has problems that atleast look worthy of an uprising. CIA has both the means and the track record of messing with countries, so its natural to be suspicious.
If Russia had control of social media narrative in US and wanted to cause trouble, nobody would know for sure if an uprising was due to their meddling or due to current political climate.
Lack of evidence doesn't prove or disprove anything.
Please go through the article I linked and find some 20th century examples. _at the time of the conspiracy_ there was no solid evidence of their involvement. That implies your method isn't actually a good way to be aware of the ones the CIA is _actually doing_ versus authoritarians coping for their own failures
When the CIA does something, we at the time don't know that the CIA is doing it (if they're doing it competently). That is true.
But run the experiment the other way. A friend of mine once said that if a light bulb burns out on Tierra Del Fuego, somebody claims that it's a CIA conspiracy. Of all the public claims (gated by some level of seriousness or authority) of CIA involvement, what fraction turned out to be true?
Does the CIA have a longstanding documented history of burning out light bulbs? because they do for coups and other regime change efforts
How even-handed and fair.
These entities are in the business—by their very nature—to lie and hide their activities as much as possible.[1] To dismiss speculation out-of-hand because it has no evidence is ludicrous.
[1] Not only that but to actively push counter-narratives.
Oh yeah, I saw it in India when Bangladesh fell. Couldn’t possibly be her incessant and well-documented corruption. I also think Barack Obama was somehow involved.
Corruption is endemic in many places, but somehow the chance of regime change is more correlated with unwillingness to follow the USA dictate than with corruption ....
> somehow the chance of regime change is more correlated with unwillingness to follow the USA dictate than with corruption
What did Nepal fail to do for America that supposedly caused this?
Nepal is probably safe from US meddling (US has no interests there, India and China meddle in Nepal enough).
Pakistan/Bangladesh is another manner. The way Imran Khan was ousted...
In their defense, quite a few were
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d'%C3%A9ta...
[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion
[3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Chilean_coup_d%27%C3%A9...
> quite a few were
Bay of Pigs wasn't a revolution, it was a failed invasion. The others, however, absolutely were instigated by the CIA.
You can compile similar lists for Iran, Russia, France and India. Reflexively dismissing every coup, much less protest, as the product of foreign involvement without evidence isn't thoughtful.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brigade_2506
> Brigade 2506 (Brigada Asalto 2506) was a CIA-sponsored group of Cuban exiles formed in 1960 to attempt the military overthrow of the Cuban government headed by Fidel Castro. It carried out the abortive Bay of Pigs Invasion landings in Cuba on 17 April 1961.
Fair enough, the U.S. tried to be clandestine.
Calling theories about the CIA conspiracy-theories is like calling General Relativity a physics-theory. Well, yeah, you are correct.
Nepal has always been somewhat of a basket case. Remember when their prince went nuts and shot the royal family up? Then the whole country went through the wringer in the mid-00s.
Shame, it’s one place I really want to visit, but it seems like it will be a bit of a challenge (well, at least not Iran-level challenge, which is another place I want to visit someday and has different but even bigger problems).
It is the most fascinating country I have ever been to.
I’m hoping the one in Indonesia and this one and others catch fire. The people are starting to realize where all the money is going in the world, straight up to the top.
KP Sharma Oli is pro-China which even Nepali media has pointed out [0]. And his formative years were spent growing up in a village (Garamani) barely 30 km outside Naxalbari during the Naxalbari Uprising, and attended secondary school barely 5 miles (Mechinagar) away from Naxalbari during the uprising.
In Nepali politics, Sher Bahadur Deuba is pro-India and Prachanda is pro-Prachanda (will back India some years, other years will back China).
The whole Indian internet conspiracy of "CIA ki saazish" is ridiculous when the US has barely 20 India scholars at all. There is 0 domain experience in India studies in the US, and that reflects in America's South Asia strategy (there is none).
[0] - https://kathmandupost.com/columns/2025/09/07/oli-s-diplomati...
Did the departments at Berkeley, Columbia and Chicago just turn over and capsize?
Their scholars primarily specialize in the history of South Asia, not contemporary foreign relations and strategy in South Asia.
IMO, the only American program that has a good program in Contemporary Indian politics and foreign policy is Stanford, as Sumit Ganguly acts as the primary linkage between American and Indian policymakers, and the FSI and Hoover Institution tends to host Indian policymakers and career bureaucrats as affiliates and fellows. For example, during the US-India trade negotiations, the only public visit Nirmala Sitharaman and her staffers had was at the Hoover Institution [0]. Even the USIBC is hosted at Stanford, and that event has a lot of Indian and American dignitaries and policymakers coming.
Other than Christine Fair and a couple Pakistani fellows at HKS, I can't think of a similar domain experts on Pakistan either in the US.
If you want to study contemporary Indian foreign policy outside of India, your only options are NUS, ANU, Stanford, LSE, and maybe Oxford.
It's the same reason why the best China, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea scholars tend to be clustered at Harvard and Stanford.
[0] - https://www.hoover.org/events/laying-foundations-developed-i...
About china/india: Nope. This is objectively false.
surely needs some sort of citation. Is it not rather obvious that a small nation bordered by two bigger nations would be unduly influenced by them?
I think what they means is dismissing the student protests as instigated by either India or China is doing a disservice to them.
And I agree with them - the ongoing protests are a result of anger against the political establishment's corruption - while thousands of Nepalis go abroad to work in the Gulf and India as menial labor, the political establishment's kids go abroad to America, Canada, and Australia to study, party, and live their best life.
My point was orthogonal to that - I'm saying that Chinese and Indian influence on the political establishment has been strongly entrenched.
Even Nepali media calls out Sharma's pro-China leanings and Deuba's pro-India leanings, and Prachanda's "paltu Ram" antics.
Classic removal of agency from real revolutions to avoid thinking critically about the real problems a country has, and instead blame a foreign boogeyman.
A favorite tactic of authoritarian regimes and the tankies that love them.
Yeah, it is similar to dismissing any information that contradicts the official narrative as 'conspiracy theory', without actually going the length to do actual real fact checking.
On the other hand, if a foreign country really wanted to destabilize you, can they do anything better than to exploit real grievances of the local population?
Knocking you over with military force technically destabilizes things far more than just existing grievances which may have gone off without their intervention at all. Perhaps more destabilization than they even want things to be.
> Knocking you over with military force technically destabilizes things far more
There are just as many examples of national identity being forged in war than there are it being removed.
For example, Russian-speaking Ukrainians in eastern Ukraine had no affinity for Kyiv and didn't think of themselves as Ukrainian before Russia invaded. Now they do.
> can they do anything better than to exploit real grievances of the local population?
Nope. The myth of parachuting into a country and overthrowing a government is just that.
Bah, I assumed from that comment that China or India were the ones who were coloring/interfering.
It very much sounds like it; "grooming" and instrumentalizing the local younger generation's innate and legitimate frustrations for western (read: Israeli, British, and US "intelligence" cabal clowns) interests to foment instability and/or installing a more usable and pliable government. It smells of not only every moralizing "color revolution", but it is also an on-the-nose wedge between China and India (read: BRICS) called Nepal, if you look at the map.
The recent appearance of William van Wagenen on the Scott Horton Show was rather eye opening to me on some matters, even though I have been very well aware of these types of operations for many years now. For example, the "Arab Spring" that most people at the time thought was an organic citizen protest/uprising, but was clearly a clown cabal operation, has even deeper roots with position papers for many years prior clearly outlining the exact progression for how things would end up unfolding during the "Arab Spring".
It's definitely worth a listen, even if it may sound bewildering to people who have no real context for that world outside of the mainstream.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJa1sbAqylE
Youths overthrew the government in Bangladesh last year based on similar outrage circulating on social networks. And what happened? The interim government banned the political activities of the only party that's won an election in recent memory: https://www.doughtystreet.co.uk/news/bangladesh-ban-awami-le.... Meanwhile, the Islamist parties have been un-banned and are resurgent: https://thediplomat.com/2025/08/resurgence-of-jamaat-e-islam... https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/04/07/political-islam-could-f.... Youths are fucking dumb.
As George Washington said in Hamilton: "Ah, winning was easy, young man. Governing's harder."
Don't get too caught on this. Even if you were only protesting because of the social media ban, you'd still receive support. Don't worry about it.
> It was absolutely not just social media ban, it was mostly youth protesting against the corrupt government and unfairness, social media ban was one element that was against the freedom of speech, but it was right around the time where everyone was documenting the rich politicians, their business connections and their families that have been living lavishly and just inheriting the election seats from generation to generation and spinning beurocracy to their sides.
You just gave a definition of "democracy". Thank you. /s
> "kids don't get facebook and throw tantrum".
But you cannot ignore that aspect - addicts do get aggressive, even violent, when they don't get their fix. So they are indeed vulnerable and politically susceptible.
Young people also like to see if there is a way to have a better world, old people tend to keep the status quo.
While I'm sure the connection to technology and the Internet as a whole plays a role, but much more-so the gross and clearly corrupt government is the reason why they demonstrated.
No one is willing to die so they can just post on social media.
Nice Kafkatrap you have there. Getting upset about losing something means that you are an addict.
People go out of their way to control information.
Michael Shellenberger's site was blocked in Europe by the European Parliament after posting information for "The Twitter Files - France" which he's schedule to be testifying about to the House Foreign Affairs committee tomorrow.
https://x.com/shellenberger/status/1963951509928079384
to be extremely clear - it was blocked in the European Parliament network, not all of Europe by the EP
Be even more clear, there isn't a single claim any of the Twitter files have made that have been substantiated.
These are pseudo journalists running cover for their billionaire benefactors.
Hilarious that the supposed validity of information is the metric in which you forgive any possibility of censure.
You people aren't real, I am convinced; no human being is this foolish if left to themselves.
Would you like to try again to use words to actually say something?
According to whom?
The entire thing collapsed when Elon abandoned it after less than convincing results then the journalist he handpicked for it turned on Elon.
It didn't prove any of the conclusions they had clearly already decided were true.
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4536394-twitter-files-jou...
Hard-earned freedoms are wasted on societies who don't have memories of what it took to earn them. Freedom is a ratchet: slides easily and frictionlessly one way, and offers immense resistance in the other.
This is all so disheartening.
I’m not aware of a single nation where the ratchet is loosening. It appears freedom is being eroded everywhere. The most disheartening thing is that nothing works to stop it. There are countries where millions of people have protested, but in time the protests always fizzle or are stamped out, and things continue on the same trajectory.
I've found it to be the other war around.
Protests succeed, and they crown (usually conservative) authoritarians as the new king. Arab spring & Bangladesh are the 2 recent examples.
George Washington's single greatest feat was not making the office of the president just another way of saying 'king'.
yes, and he set a great example by doing so.
Honestly, would be nice for modern day leaders to have that kind of commitment to collaborative institutions.
I feel like some of them are just trying to openly accumulate power for personal gain.
True! In fact, Augustus was the first to master that trick in Rome, he concentrated king like power in himself while carefully avoiding the title of "king" calling himself "princeps" instead.
It might not be on the national level, but we’re fighting over here in California to maintain/take back our gun rights. A court recently ruled that the state cannot require a background check for ammunition, we also got rid of the one gun a month rule recently as well. This progress gives me hope we still have so much more work to do re. privacy, property rights and freedom of speech!
We recently had a record-sized protest in Taiwan and major political movements as a result. The recall movement was also unprecedented, though it ostensibly failed. However the KMT has failed in its coupe so there's still a positive outcome.
It's why I'm here - it's one of the only countries on earth for which I'm politically optimistic.
> It's why I'm here - it's one of the only countries on earth for which I'm politically optimistic.
My curiosity is piqued by this. Do you mean to say you've moved there from somewhere place? And what do you mean, why is it the only country for which you're politically optimistic?
I don't mean to pry, and have no ulterior motive or point in asking. It just seems like a strong statement, and I cannot guess what you mean, or if I'm missing some cultural insinuation here or something. Taiwan does sound like a very interesting place to me, generally, though.
For a good intro you could listen to an interview of Audrey Tang
Just read the Wikipedia page - holy sh*t, if you'll pardon my French, what a figure! I haven't done anything with Perl, or Haskell, so this figure was just outside my view. Will definitely check some stuff out, I appreciate the pointer.
I was already rambling but didn't mention that Audrey Tang was one of the reasons I moved to Taiwan. Somewhat ironically they are an anarchist. I always meant to ask them how they square that with working as a minister. They have a HN account they sometimes post on, but I lost it.
When Audrey Tang was digital minister, you could just walk into their office during office hours and talk about whatever you wanted, so long as you consented to the meeting being recorded and uploaded to youtube. I met them at a g0v hackathon once and came to say hello, and they bade me sit down struck up an instantly deep-dive conversation into how to maintain data integrity using technology like ipfs what with the PRC constantly cutting our fiber cables.
I'm not quite sure what they're up to now that they're tenure's over, I saw their face on a massive billboard about some tech conference and heard a rumor that they're teaching at some university in like Australia or some such?
Yes I moved to Taiwan, from the USA. I was exposed to the political activism of Taiwan when I happened to be there during the sunflower protests in ten years ago, and spend 7 years working to return. My beliefs were confirmed day by day as I participated in g0v and witnessed the bluebird protests.
Political activity is high in Taiwan and there are many viewpoints represented. The government doesn't lash out mindlessly against protestors which is something I've never encountered having attended protests throughout the West - the USA, the UK, France, Australia, it seems governments are compelled to meet all protests with violence.
Furthermore taiwanese activists are incredibly organized. At the bluebird protests it was estimated there was many tens of thousands of people, but within hours of the protests being announced there were tents, food lines, water, and bathrooms set up for people. Some anarchists even set up a sound system and had a little rave down the street. There were also anarchists peppered throughout the crowd with medical supplies, and inevitably communists selling newspapers lol. There were two massive PA systems on side roads with hundreds of chairs for people to sit on, and plenty of cover to block the rain - and all these people her despite the massive rain storm!
I saw similar during the multiple pedestrian rights protests I've been to. The only bad protest I went to was a poorly organized bike protest.
I also very much enjoy the shenanigans of the Taiwanese legislative yuan. Throwing sausages at each other, stealing bills and running to the MRT so they can't be signed, barricading each other, getting into fist fights. It shows proper respect for the life or death nature of the decisions they're making.
Here's some photos from the bluebird protests https://photos.app.goo.gl/45L8FE6bVPDLVmdFA
I recently also went to a massive music festival that was highly politicized. Did you know there's a taiwanese politician that's also a singer in a metal band? Anyway his band did a lot of political speech during their show, which I found interesting. Furthermore there was a great deal of anti PRC messaging and art (which is often implied to be anti kmt as well). Another random memory of the music festival is that people will just leave their things lying around in the park, and the festival is ungated in the middle of the city, but nobody will take people's things because that just doesn't really happen in Taiwan. It's incredibly safe here.
I rambled. My overall point, is that people here genuinely feel like they can make a difference individually, because they truly can, and therefore they do. In my pictures you can see people sitting around on laptops. That's an impromptu working group to organize some recall efforts or something along those lines.
Other countries convince their populations that to make anything happen you need to convince 30 million people to agree with you first. In Taiwan you can go to a g0v hackathon and change the country in a small way in an afternoon.
Extremely interesting! I did ask myself if all those people would like having their photos online, what with the PRC across the pond. But perhaps I'm being "old-fashioned" there.
Very much appreciate the insider story. I've had a quick browse of your blog and will go back to it when I get a bit more time. Kudos to you for pursuing your interests boldly.
> Extremely interesting! I did ask myself if all those people would like having their photos online, what with the PRC across the pond. But perhaps I'm being "old-fashioned" there.
This is my concern when I photograph protests, but in my experience the people that don't want to be identified are taking pretty big steps to ensure it, e.g. wearing masks and whatnot. Anyone else should safely assume they're being photographed, after all Taiwan has ubiquitous CCTV. And again, it's not like the USA where you shouldn't even bring your phone, and there's a high likelihood you'll be blackbagged by the cops, it's just safe and not a big deal to be at a protest. I'm very convinced Taiwanese people enjoy far more enforced rights than Americans.
Lucky you! Taiwan is such a great place, I hope it will thrive in spite of its bullies.
As first generation out of Salazar's dictorship, our country now having a right majority with a Nazi party in the mix, makes me really sad.
How short the memory of folks can be, especially with my parents and grand parents generations still around, but apparently their memories and experiences now fall into death hears.
Maybe when they start getting visits from the eventually new state protection police, they will understand, then it will be too late.
A bit of brainwashing through some media owned by billionaires and there we go for another round. My parents' generation is voting en masse for a party that was literally funded by a former Waffen-SS leader after WW2, while thinking "the left" is antisemitic.
Yeah, that is another tragedy.
> fall into death hears
Maybe I'm missing a pun somewhere, but the phrase is 'fall onto deaf ears'!
Things like that are usually the result of someone using speech-to-text on their phone
I think you may be being downvoted for the exclamation mark, which I also found a tad over the top, although I didn't downvote you.
Particularly when the mistake you're correcting was so reasonable and charming. It's an excellent example of an "eggcorn".
If you haven't heard of eggcorns, fear not: the word "eggcorn" is itself an autology, i.e., a word that is an example of the phenomenon it describes. So if you remember the word, "eggcorn", you should be able to remember the concept. An eggcorn is a type of malapropism, but one that could plausibly fit the context of the misheard original word or phrase.
So, for example, "eggcorn" could plausibly have been the word for the object which we actually call an "acorn".
Similarly, when I read "into death hears", I immediately knew what the writer meant, and had a little chuckle to myself thinking about how it actually made total sense. So perhaps we could point out to them nicely the lovely eggcorn they were using, rather than text-shouting.
Shitty autocorrect.
>How short the memory of folks can be, especially with my parents and grand parents generations still around
A good thing to remember is that shitloads of people didn't learn from those kinds of events.
The young adults who threw rocks at black girls going to white schools in the southern USA are still alive and still voting and still hold a grudge.
Look when the civil rights act passed, and look how hard the south went republican after that.
>Maybe when they start getting visits from the eventually new state protection police, they will understand, then it will be too late.
A lot of genuine Nazi believers went to "political" camps during the Nazi regime and they did not change their tune. They eventually got out, and just kept being Nazis, because they were Nazis because they genuinely believe the ideology. People who were literally sidelined by stupid Nazis infighting continued to advance the goals of the Nazis regime. Getting targeted and harmed by their very own regime did not change their opinion of it.
The same happened in Soviet Russia to all sorts of genuine communists who got gulag'd anyway, and still strongly held communist (stalinist even) beliefs (if they survived)
Tribalism is one of the strongest buttons humans have. We should be less surprised that it works so effectively
I fear that your observations speaks more to protest being an inefficient catalyst for regime change more than it speaks to the efforts and initiatives to preserve freedom.
The jetset class doesn't really care about a single nation. For good (trade binds fractious governments) or ill (neofeudalism), they try to separate themselves from the proles.
Hilton is their passport.
To be fair the people who care about a single nation, to the detriment of all other nations, are freaks
Aye, it sort of sucks. A global government that could also respect privacy would be a good thing, IMO, except for when it leans authoritarian.
A maintainable altruistic ruling class is a myth.
When you centralize power you’ve created a point of control/leverage with significant value. It will eventually be captured.
> except for when it leans authoritarian
Totalitarianism, Crony Capitalism, State Enforced Communism, Authoritarianism, etc. are all variations of the same root rot: centralization.
When you centralize power you will always get centralized power. A global centralized power is terrifying.
> The most disheartening thing is that nothing works to stop it.
Armed citizenry? I do not see any other way. Power always corrupts.
You can't make people care.
Not by telling them they should care. They have to experience. Unfortunately, with dictatorship, once you are experiencing it, it's already too late.
---
The reasons democracies slide towards less freedom is that in theory decisions should be made by people who care and are informed. But in reality, a single vote every few years is too imprecise to express any kind of informed opinion.
You pick and issue, do research and vote according to what's best for you and/or society. Except you can't vote on the issue. You vote for a party or candidate which also has stances towards dozens other issues. So even if you provide signal in one dimension, you provide only noise in others.
Voting for parties/candidates is like expressing your entire opinion, a multidimensional vector, by picking one point from a small number of predefined choices.
Protests are rarely effectual, they serve more to gauge interest of others and provide connections.
In the end the state is a force of violence. Voting works in so much as it is roughly a tally of who would win if we all pulled knives on each other. Democracy was formed at a time when guns and knives were the most effectual tools the state had to fight against the populace. Now that the government has more asymmetric tools democracy is likely a weaker gauge of how to avoid violence, because the most practical thing voting does is bypass violence by ascertaining ahead of time who would win in a fight.
As this asymmetry becomes more profound, the bargaining power of the populace erodes, and voting becomes more of a rigged game. If the populace can't check the power of the elite, the elite has no carrot to respect the human rights of others.
> Protests are rarely effectual
False
“Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts – and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change” [1].
Exhibit A: the same region, literally last month. First protesters in Bangladesh lead “to the ouster of the then-prime minister, Sheikh Hasina” [2]. Then Indonesia “pledged to revoke lawmakers’ perks and privileges, including a controversial $3,000 housing allowance, in a bid to ease public fury after nationwide protests” [3].
[1] https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/carr/publications/35-rul...
[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_Revolution_(Bangladesh)
[3-] https://apnews.com/article/indonesia-protests-subianto-privi...
I think when people, particularly in America, think "protest", they think of people walking around with placards and other such relatively low effort involvement. That article is talking about incidents where you have 3.5% of people (that would be 12 million people in the US) engaging in things like organized and real boycotts (as opposed to 'Yeah I'm boycotting [this place I've never even heard of, let alone shopped at]), strikes, and so on.
You could have tens of millions of students and otherwise unemployed individuals walking around with placards, and nobody's going to care. But get 50,000 truckers (let alone 12 million people) to go on strike over something, and the whole country will grind to a halt.
Then again, Canada had a whole convoy that tried to protest but that got stamped out.
> Canada had a whole convoy that tried to protest but that got stamped out
It was an anti-vax protest [1]. Canada isn't anti vax [2]. The protests were unpopular [3][4].
The convoy didn't go anywhere because it had nowhere to go.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_convoy_protest#cite_not...
[2] https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/measles-vaccination-poll-1.75...
[3] https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/15/politics/fact-check-canad...
[4] https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/two-thirds-of-canadia...
Sure it might have been unpopular and a silly cause. However that didn't stop the government from invoking the emergencies act and cracking down with impunity. There were even cases of finances being frozen.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/world/americas/canada-pro...
Are some of your comments automated?
It was an anti-lockdown protest. Canada continued to have extreme lockdowns well after the vaccine was available.
> I think when people, particularly in America, think "protest", they think of people walking around with placards and other such relatively low effort involvement.
Growing up in Nepal and witnessing some large non-violent and violent protests, I was frankly, baffled to see people standing on the sides of the streets and holding sign boards as protests
Where's the rallies? Where is the mass involvement needed for a successful protest? where are the street blocks? non-voilent doesn't mean just standing there.
The first time I actually saw something worth being called a protest was during the Black Lives Matter movement. I think it exposed the American police system for what it was, and the system's inability to control protesters peacefully
I've seen a lot of protests around NYC on various topics
Recently more with Palestine
> You could have tens of millions of students and otherwise unemployed individuals walking around with placards, and nobody's going to care.
I think you're wrong here Do it for one day nobody cares Do it for a week, people notice Do it for a month, you've got regime change
> Do it for one day nobody cares Do it for a week, people notice Do it for a month, you've got regime change
Occupy Wall Street lasted longer than a month, and I'm not sure they achieved regime change. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupy_Wall_Street
You could argue that it's below the 3.5% of the total population threshold mentioned in the previous comments tho.
Far below. Occupy Wall Street was perhaps thousands of people. 3.5% of the US would be over 12 million people. 3.5% of New York City would be 350,000 people. In the street outside Wall Street. Yeah, that would have occupied Wall Street, to the point that workers would have had trouble getting in the door. Occupy Wall Street was nothing like that.
The USA has an astonishly effective machine at stomping out protests for anything more than holding up a sign. BLM in Minneapolis was allowed to go on because the politician agreed with it. (Tim Walz's wife famously noted how much she enjoyed the smell of the burning tires.) []
When I was young and still under the illusion protests did anything, I recall going to a protest during the 'occupy' days. Obama was coming into town and we wanted him to be able to hear us chanting or see our signs.
My memory is pretty bad at this point on the context, but roughly how I remember it going was he was going to some sort of convention center. We started walking there, and about halfway there this mysterious but incredibly confident and authoritative person with a megaphone showed up and told us we had succeeded and the protest was over. About 90% of people actually believed that and left. The 10% of us that were like "who the hell is this lady and why would anyone listen to her" kept going. Then the police surrounded us and beat the shit out of anyone they could get to. We never got anywhere close to Obama's route.
[] https://nypost.com/2024/08/07/us-news/gwen-walz-said-she-kep...
That study appears to be comparing violent protests to non-violent protests.
At 3.5% of the populace taking up arms (not in protest but in war), that would far outnumber armed government officials in most countries. I don't doubt that a government choosing to concede at the point those 3.5% signaled peacefully they are likely to get violence soon, since the government conceding before that happens indicates they are weak enough to not be able to fight it off. Of course, If you have 3.5% of the populace fighting you can defeat even a horribly asymmetric situation, as the Chechens showed when they gained independence in the first Chechen war against Russia where almost everything beyond small arms were obtained via capture from the enemy.
At best your study shows that a government that capitulates before violence is more likely to be defeated, which makes sense since both sides tend to pick violence when they actually think they can win -- and if both sides think they can win then odds are quite good the odds of winning lie somewhere closer to the middle of the odds if the actors are rational. Concession before violence is more likely to indicate the odds lie outside the middle.
> study appears to be comparing violent protests to non-violent protests
No. The 3.5% figure specifically refers to nonviolent resistance [1].
Would note that “new research suggests that one nonviolent movement, Bahrain in 2011-2014, appears to have decisively failed despite achieving over 6% popular participation at its peak” [2]. But the fact remains that it’s harder to identify ineffective mass protests than effective ones.
> which makes sense since both sides tend to pick violence when they actually think they can win
This assumes a lot more rationality than violent resistance (and corrupt governments) tend to have.
Instead, the evidence is that violent resistance fails more often than nonviolent resistance. In part because violent resistance helps the government consolidate power over its own violence apparatus in a way nonviolent protest inhibits.
[1] https://cup.columbia.edu/book/why-civil-resistance-works/978...
[2] https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/carr/publications/questi...
I listened to an interview with one of the article's authors, and she said the reason non-violent protests defeat a state willing to order violent crackdowns is because the soldiers performing those crackdowns are regular people. They are not the people who most benefit from an authoritarian state. So when they find themselves being told to beat up or shoot a nun sitting in the street, there's a good chance the soldier would defect.
The new tools are largely tools of surveilance and censorship, etc.
Essentially they are tools that affect democratic coordination more so than fighting. If you can still coordinate despite them, then the amtal rule applies.
Hard agree. I’m always trying to get my fellow young Americans to understand this and it seems to go right over their heads a lot of times. My parents lived through multiple oppressive dictatorships before emigrating to America. Once I understood everything that they and their families experienced (e.g., family members being kidnapped, disappeared, and eventually murdered simply due their political views), I gained a much deeper appreciation for our Constitution (in particular, our Bill of Rights).
Nowadays, watching how easy it is to get folks to give in to censorship and tyranny for psychological “safety” scares me sometimes (especially when it’s all due to politics).
No matter what someone’s views are (and how offensive I may find them to be), I’ll never ever advocate for their censorship, because I understand where that can lead. Today, it’s your opponent; tomorrow, it’s you.
liberalism is passé nowadays, but it will see a resurgence akin to the “hard times make hard people, hard people make good times” cycle
I actually don’t know if I agree with the last part. A chunk of the Rwandan genocide was a radio station instigating and advocating for the mass slaughter of a people. Atrocities in Myanmar also were originally advocated for in Facebook. On more personal levels, domestic abuse is also psychological torture and the wearing down of a person with words and it should be in someone’s right to file a restraining order to stop being contacted by their abuser even if the abuser doesn’t perform physical violence.
That is to say I broadly agree with the notion that speech should be relatively unfettered, but I do believe there must be exceptions for speech that actively aims to fetter people. We must limit speech that advocates limiting the freedoms of people to live as independent and equal citizens.
> That is to say I broadly agree with the notion that speech should be relatively unfettered, but I do believe there must be exceptions for speech that actively aims to fetter people. We must limit speech that advocates limiting the freedoms of people to live as independent and equal citizens.
While absolute free speech remains unattainable in practice due to inevitable societal boundaries, it should serve as an aspirational ideal toward which we continually strive, minimizing deviations rather than expanding them. Speech restrictions often and quickly devolve into subjectivity, fostering environments where only dominant ideologies prevail.
So, of course, by all means, restrict speech that harms children, incites violence, etc., but be very careful to not open that door too widely.
Yes I agree totally with this, we should never open the door too widely to censorship. It should only be limited to speech to take away others rights as citizens and people. People can say whatever they want until they say “this person must not be an equal to me”.
That's a huge leap from directly instigating genocide that actually happened to "We must limit speech that advocates limiting the freedoms of people to live as independent and equal citizens." which is severe censorship of all sorts of political ideas, including ones which we already enact and most people agree with. There's a lot of widely-accepted government-enforced inequality (foreigners, prisoners, convicts, children, inherited rights, etc.) which just shows how overly broad the restrictions you say we must impose are. Even yourself saying that could be interpreted as a violation of your own rule! You also advocated for restraining orders! You're your own enemy. Your opinion could really benefit from some back and forth with other people to refine it into something more sensible. Hopefully I'm contributing a little to that.
Wait what’s wrong with a restraining order? Do you think it should be legal for a person to stalk and mail threats to someone, go to their workplace to issue threats, phone them to issue threats, etc? I acknowledge stopping someone is censorship, but I also believe that it is important to both harbor free speech as an ideal in the ideal world, and also that it is important to acknowledge we don’t exist in the ideal world where no one will use their freedom of speech to egregiously destroy people.
It's not the restraining order that's wrong, it's forbidding people from advocating for it!
I don’t know man?
You need moderation both ways.
Yes to the First.
But also yes to the cops arresting a kid who posts on social media that he’s gonna kill all his classmates tomorrow morning.
Bonus points if the cops arrest him before he goes to school tomorrow.
Couching threats of violence in political language shouldn’t change anything in that regard.
(Well, it does these days. But it shouldn’t. That’s how you get kids gunned down at prayer.)
Anyway, bottom line is, adherence to the First doesn’t mean we abandon law enforcement, or military sense.
People make vague and non-serious advocations for inequality and non-freedom all the time and it's not really that serious. For example saying on social media that some politician is a criminal and should be locked up. It has to be OK to discuss political ideas, even in the form of "I think we should..." (advocating) rather than "what if we did...?" (not advocating).
> But also yes to the cops arresting a kid who posts on social media that he’s gonna kill all his classmates tomorrow morning.
I think that everyone (yes, literally everyone) would agree that direct incitements and threats of violence such as this would be fine to censor and deal with appropriately. As a free speech advocate, I know a lot of folks with free speech absolutist views yet I don’t know a single person who’d be against any of that.
The reality though is that, in practice, these extreme examples tend to be used to justify censorship only to end up making the rules vague and subjective enough that, sooner or later, folks start being censored for wrongthink.
Also, “moderation” is just a soft term for censorship.
I'm totally ignorant of the human right situation in nepal.
In the copy I found of their constitution, it only mentioned freedom of speech for the government. On their house floor.
What was it like there in recent times? Much state repression for political thought or unapproved opinions?
Always have to look deeper either way
The Chinese constitution guarantees free speech universally, another part of the constitution is used to control all facets of life in line with the state narrative, and that’s a charitable interpretation when we just pretend that the process of law matters at all, and distinguish when it is just procedural theatre or a real constraint on the state
Conflicting parts of constitutions can change everything
The Chinese, North Korean, and old USSR constitutions all contain(ed) strong language "guaranteeing" universal freedom of speech.
It's a bit like that Game of Thrones scene where Sean Bean brings a slip of paper into the throne room.
Appreciate the analysis. Do you think this is the status quo continuing in Nepal, or is the human right situation degrading?
A Constitution is just a piece of paper.
I think Westerners and perhaps especially Americans think it has intrinsic power because they have a strong rule of law and effective independent courts so they are used to their Constitution being well inforced.
However, in a country where this is not the case the Constitution is just a piece of paper...
Agreed but if the right doesn't exist on paper it's not likely the government is going to respect it in practice. Although there are exceptions (most Somalia has de facto right to bear arms despite it being super illegal).
I am perfectly fine living in a society where you are not free to assault/storm government buildings and personally believe that the Jan 6th riots should have been met with more violent force than what occurred to protect the congressional proceedings.
> are wasted on societies who don't have memories of what it took to earn them
I mean thats a bit rich given the massive civil war, dictatorship and overthrow of the monarchy that all happened within living memory.
It's an overtly American perspective - perspective of a nation perpetually terrified of repeating the downfall of the Roman Republic.
In reality long periods of political instability make people quite happy to trade freedoms for peace.
> long periods of political instability make people quite happy to trade freedoms for peace
To be fair, the Romans traded long periods of recurring civil wars for peace. We’re nowhere close to that in America.
Even the memories are no antidote. In the Philippines the memory of Marcos didn't stop autocrats from rising to power. Even in Europe, countries with relatively recent memories of autocracy and fascism, such as Portugal and Spain, have far-right parties with >20% seats in Parliament, just like in France or Germany.
What is to be done?
It is not a question of what, but a question of why.
Why do autocrats rise to power? Why are far-right parties rising in power in Germany, France, Spain and Portugal?
I've come to see this as a fundamental human nature one can't go against. Some people are, just evil. Humans will always love self more than others. This love of self can turn into a hatred of others, or easily be turned into a hatred of others.
Acceptance that evil forces and opportunitists and populists will always be around us is the first step in asnwering what is to be done
If the closest you can get to understanding populists is “some humans are just evil and selfish”, a large part of humanity will remain mysterious and unreachable to you.
I think everyone understands tribalism to some extent. You would probably expend more effort to protect your child than you would a stranger. Populism just turns up the knob on this instinct.
Calling people who hold beliefs you find wrong "evil" is, IMO, counter-productive and will lead not only to conflict but to worse outcomes for yourself (even if your side "wins"). The root of cultural differences (both within and between societies and sub-cultures) are differing beliefs of what is right and wrong; what is morally good and morally bad.
What you view as hateful, others will view as loving. And what you view as loving, others can view as hateful. Painting the opposition in simplistic terms like "evil" and refusing to even try to see why they feel they way they feel solves nothing and empowers extremists. And when groups led by such people "win", the majority still lose.
IMO, any side of any belief, be it individualism vs collectivism, atheism vs religion, sexual openness vs sexual restraint, free speech vs censorship, capitalism vs socialism, etc, etc. can easily morph into something harmful. You may have discovered "evil", but after many decades, I've come to see that most people's hearts are in the right place. But there are always a significant fraction on any side of any issue that, for whatever reason, cannot regulate their emotions and seem to need to strive for the extremes.
Compromise can happen if you reject extremists. Solutions can be found if you understand that the extremists on your own side are as much the opposition as the other side of an issue. Purity of belief always seems attractive on the surface. But moderation is not a cop out, it's pragmatism. Moderation is the practical philosophy through which solutions can be found. Fundamentalism, extremism, dogmatism, are approaches that lead to worse outcomes. Moderation leads to better outcomes. History has shown this again and again.
celebrate?
What is disheartening? People fighting to keep using Facebook, Instagram? I think this looks more like brainwashing.
> The demonstration turned violent when some protesters entered the Parliament complex, prompting police to resort to baton charges, tear gas shells and rubber bullets to disperse the crowd, eyewitnesses said.
14 people dead from so-called "non-lethal" means. How do 14 people end up dead without the police coming with intent to do harm?
Rubber bullets have been shown time and time again to be lethal. Just because they don't kill you every time doesn't mean they aren't lethal. You can survive a gun shot too. Immense shame should be poured on every media outlet that licks the boot of authoritarians when they repeat this lie.
Also note the phrasing. The content is "the police killed 14 people". But the form is "the situation turned violent as a result of the protester's actions".
"See what you made me do" is a common phrase in domestic abuse.
It’s also irrefutable fact that pro-state or pro-cop agitators throughout history will pretend to be a demonstrator and throw a single brick to give the cops an excuse to break some skulls
In primitive societies where people are expected to resolve their own problems because everyone is roughly equal, violence is the principal currency, for better or worse.
But in "civilized" societies with multiple layers of power structures, you are not supposed to solve your own problem, you are supposed to show somebody in a position of power that you are the victim so they solve the problem for you. This means victimhood is the principal currency of power.
Don't believe me? Every governments which allows protests says they must always be peaceful and "violence doesn't belong in politics". Yet how many of those governments were created by violent armed revolt against a previous authoritarian government? How many by "peaceful" protests?
> you are supposed to show somebody in a position of power that you are the victim so they solve the problem for you. This means victimhood is the principal currency of power
This doesn't describe how legal systems evolved at all.
They evolved to protect the powerful from each other. You went through the legal system because if you didn't you escalated your problem from a dispute with one powerful person to a dispute with the system of power.
The only way this victimhood notion works is if we describe all claims of damages as claims to victimhood. Which, I guess, they sort of are. But those pleas are made by the powerful, too. If you aren't the victim of something, if you haven't been harmed, what the fuck is the case you're bringing?
> how many of those governments were created by violent armed revolt against a previous authoritarian government? How many by "peaceful" protests?
Since mechanised warfare, I think there have been more peaceful revolutions than (non-state backed) violent ones. The latter tend to just result in failed states.
Is how they evolved relevant? When somebody protests against the government itself, the legal system doesn't even matter, unless it has a mechanism how people can secede legally. Do any have that?
When I meant is that victimhood works when you need to gain support from somebody with more power than you. Either from the legal system or from masses of people. The latter can by foreign (putting political pressure on the government) or domestic (gathering more people to show how many are willing to stand against it). Violence is the only thing that can work when there is nobody to appeal to (again, not just legally but through empathy or intimidation) - see below - a large crowd is a lot of implied potential violence and you need victimhood to achieve that mass.
> Since mechanised warfare, I think there have been more peaceful revolutions than (non-state backed) violent ones.
I purposefully didn't mention examples like the "Velvet" revolution because they too use violence, they just don't materialize it.
Violence is most powerful when it's implied, before it's used physically. Imagine oppressing a nation >10 million and now 1 million are standing on the square in front of your government building, shouting slogans. Anybody would give up power "peacefully" because if they didn't, there's a high chance that implied violence would materialize and they'd end up killed instead of having made a nice deal for peaceful retirement.
> The latter tend to just result in failed states.
Because the latter tend to happen in states which never had functioning institutions to begin with so they have no experience with running a functioning let alone democratic state. Sarah Paine had a lecture about how restoring democracy to Germany or bringing it to Japan after WW2 was possible because they already has the organizational knowledge. But the US failed to bring democracy to Afghanistan or other places it invaded because those were always a mess full or corruption and you'd need several generations to ingrain the principles.
> Is how they evolved relevant?
Yes. You described a “primitive” legal system that in truth didn’t exist.
Early legal systems didn’t have anything to do with victimhood beyond demonstrating harm. They didn’t have systems for the powerless because they didn’t concern themselves with them, they were a means by which elites peacefully resolved disputes.
> unless it has a mechanism how people can secede legally
What?
> When I meant is that victimhood works when you need to gain support from somebody with more power than you
How would you differentiate that from demonstrating harm?
> You described a “primitive” legal system
I didn't describe a legal system at all. But it is certainly a modern way of thinking that one always needs some higher "authority" to resolve disputes or to defend against injustice.
> What?
secede /sĭ-sēd′/
To withdraw formally from membership in a state, union, or other political entity.
Note, this is a low effort reply to a low effort reply from you.
If you wish to discuss this politely, we can discuss which states have a legal mechanism by which a land-owning individual, a town or region can legally vote to gain independence. I don't know of any.
---
Victimhood is perceived harm (by yourself or others). But I don't understand why you focus on separating victimhood from demonstrating harm so much. See my other replies on this article, I explained my views in more depth there.
> Yet how many of those governments were created by violent armed revolt against a previous authoritarian government? How many by "peaceful" protests?
This is actually an interesting question.
Many post-colonial governments, notably India, were create through what might be called non-violent means. Would be interesting to have someone properly research that.
Yes, I won't pretend it's clear cut or that the numbers without context mean much.
How I see it:
- Victimhood works when there is somebody to appeal to or other people to gain support from. - Violence works when there's no higher power or when you already have the most popular support you ever will.
Getting more people to join you and openly protest is a lot of implied/potential violence. Meaning you can use victimhood (see how the police are beating us) to gain more potential violence for use later. Either the people in power see this and back down (e.g. Velvet revolution) before the violence materializes, or not. They can also see how successful materialized violence can become and flee (e.g. Syria) or they can try to win a civil war (e.g. Myanmar).
I haven't read much about India yet but my guess is victimhood worked in the case of India because essentially they were getting the support of citizens in the UK (a higher power) to pressure their government into giving it independence. It was costly for the politicians to be oppressors and also get reelected.
Victimhood failed in China and recently Belarus because 1) there was nobody to appeal to 2) the oppressors didn't back down 3) the protesters failed to materialize the violence and were defeated by the government's violence.
"violence doesn't belong in politics" is a hilarious one. Off the top of my head, the USA is kidnapping people and sending them to countries they are not from, and telling me as a trans woman that maybe I should not own guns
I'm sure there will be no violence once the thugs have guns and I don't
Sorry to see you getting downvoted or flagged but that's HN for you.
Issue is many people believe that peace is more important than justice.
Or that fighting and losing is worse than not being able to fight at all. And there's a bit of concern trolling too - basically they say if you fought you'd lose so they'll take away your ability to fight to protect you.
This is happening in Europe too with plenty of people trying to stop weapon deliveries to Ukraine because that'll stop the war. It's "stop struggling, it'll be over sooner" with slightly more sophisticated words.
interesting thesis, but I dont see why you focus on victimhood over every other form of leverage.
I dont think victimhood motivates those in power to take action. They care about votes. victimhood is but one of many factors driving votes.
Your conclusion supports the relevance of violence (it is always the final currency of power). your conclusion says nothing about victimhood.
How can you look around the country or world and think the victims have all the power?
And authoritarian overreach.
https://www.oregonlive.com/portland/2025/09/wipe-them-out-tr...
Totalitarian states love this trick of putting provocators into the crowd to later blame civil protesters for violence/crime.
I mean, what what do you do to protect the parliamentarians from blood thirsty crowds. Which side were you on during the January 6 riots/protests?
Of course the answer is that people cheer for protests they like and punish riots they don’t. This is politics and that’s why there is so much fighting about how news and history chooses to frame them. The headline we have received today is telling me it’s a good protest.
Oh, so killing the parliamentarians is ok if the protest is just?
Isn’t this very similar to what protestors did on the January 6th incident in the USA?
What the protestors did sure, their motive, the state's response wildly different. I'd say more but why bring the US into the discussion.
19 people so far. mostly peaceful protestors shot. 80+ being treated, ~50 serious. It was "Gen Z" kids raising one-piece flags among other things.
some killed were still in their school uniforms, at least one was 16.
The correct term for these means is "less-lethal".
Also, it’s literally a war crime to use tear gas on the battlefield, yet it’s somehow OK to use it on civilians. (I understand part of the reason is to prevent a slippery slope from tear gas to chlorine, but it’s still telling.)
Tear gas is routinely used at scale on people for training purposes. One of the things you learn (and a major point of the training) is that it is largely a psychological deterrent, you become acclimated to the unpleasant effects pretty quickly upon repeated exposure.
> it’s literally a war crime to use tear gas on the battlefield
Chemical weapons are banned because they’re useless for a modern military [1].
[1] https://acoup.blog/2020/03/20/collections-why-dont-we-use-ch...
That explanation sounds fishy to me. If something doesn't work then there's no need to ban it.
> If something doesn't work then there's no need to ban it
Did you read the article?
Chemical weapons provide no benefit to a modern army. They do, however, to simpler armies. So the world's militaries, who command modern armies, came together and banned them.
Put another way, the U.S. military gains nothing from chemical weapons over high explosives. The Taliban, on the other hand, might.
In addition to what the other commenter said, it's virtue signaling.
i mean it’s certainly possible with crowds, police have been implicated in causing crowd crush incidents with 5x death count compared to this
The count is 19. And it's mostly students, few of who were still in their school uniform. Many head injuries, and death by bullets on the head. This is the darkest day in Nepal!
Edit: And the protest was against corrupt politicians, not social media ban.
The count's gone up. I didn't go to the protest but the friends that went say they're probably under-counting considering how many shots were fired right in front of them.
PS fancy seeing you here!
So where's the donkey and where's the cart.
It reads like: citizens have been protesting the government using social media, government desperate to curb dissent bans social media, dissent is now on the streets..
Or maybe it's as straightforward as the media has been reporting.
Just a random tourist caught up in all of this in Nepal right now, but what I gathered was that corruption and anti-government sentiment was the reason, but the social networks ban tipped people over the edge to start protesting.
Nepal government made the classic mistake of not realizing if you let people scream into the ether on whatever the youth use as twitter, they won't meet up with their friends to scream on the street or even worse.
Social media has proven to be quite an effective tool for mobilizing protests and beyond. I get how the short-sighted might see it as a tactical move to "cripple logistics" by banning social media.
But, the reason I call it short-sighted is exactly what you said: Removing those earlier pressure-release valves doesn’t solve the underlying issue at all and just increases the risk of a more volatile outcome.
> Social media has proven to be quite an effective tool for mobilizing protests
Gatherings, yes. Effective protest, I’m less convinced.
Effective protests “have clear strategic goals, use protest to broaden coalitions, seek to enlist more powerful individuals in their cause, and connect expressions of discontent to broader political and electoral mobilization” [1].
Social media helps enlist the elite. But it absolutely trashes clarity of goals and coalition broadening, often degrading into no true Scotsman contests. If a protest is well planned, social media can help it organize. But if a movement is developing, social media will as often keep it in a leaderless, undisciplined and thus ineffective state.
[1] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-power-of-protest-in-t...
> “No movement of people, demonstration, meeting, gathering or sit-in will be allowed in the restricted zone,” Chief District Officer Chhabi Lal Rijal said in a notice.
This is what I'll never understand about neolib governments sliding towards authoritarianism: why push back so hard? Evacuate the parliamentary buildings, don't meet the protestors with police, and let them have the run of the place. Record every face on CCTV, and then spend the next couple months vanishing them. The USSR understood this and it's that kind of forward-thinking that lets the likes of Putin maintain authority all the way from his career as a KGB agent through to now.
These governments responding to protests with tear gas and batons fail not only at effective authoritarianism, but also at being good liberal democracies where people can safely protest - which is possible, Taiwan has had two record sized protests in my life and at neither of them did the police advance with batons and beat the shit out of people.
You and me both. On some level I'm happy that governments push back so hard because it makes protests "work" but it seems like it would be way more effective for a government to simply ignore the protesters. It would be the ultimate flex by a corrupt government—we're so far above you that you have nothing to shake your fist at.
In general (with some per-country variance), the batons and tear gas will only come out when the one critical threshold is reached: rich people start making less money. So you can get ten or 100 buddies out on the street shouting and waving flags, and they’ll ignore you because no stores are losing business. But the moment those people disrupt the flow of profits, the brute squads will hit the streets.
It shows that the Nepalese have a higher civic response compared to many in the West, just look at the Brits, where in effect there is a social media ban on lots and lots of things that affect day-to-day life.
Let’s not pretend the level of ban is equivalent, or the effect it has on people’s lives. More should be done, but there are levels of severity. UK citizens can and do still log on to many services daily that are not accessible in Nepal.
Of course they log in, I never said otherwise, but only if they want to write about stuff that is pretty much inconsequential to their lives, such as sports or celebrity culture.
Because people in the West have been indoctrinated to trust their governments far too much to an unhealthy degree to actually think that maybe their government doesn't have their best interest at heart and to start protesting.
And also because they're in the trap of a government provided cushy lifestyle which the government can terminate at will without violence (de-banking, de-pensioning, de-uneployment, de-social housing, etc) if they're caught protesting. People in underdeveloped countries don't have anything more to loose anyway but their chains.
> Because people in the West have been indoctrinated to trust their governments far too much to an unhealthy degree
Can you give specific examples?
I frequently find the US outlook to be exactly the reverse, where people pretend like "the government" is some conspiratorial shadow organisation undermining all the citizens at every step (which seems quite silly to me because it basically consists only of people that you directly or indirectly voted for).
My view is that if you have incompetent, selfish administrators in a western democracy, then just don't vote for them next time; if they keep getting elected, then maybe your countries actual problem are the idiot voters instead (or possibly not-actually-independent mass media, the importance of which can not be overstated).
People will speak negatively of the government, but also have learned helplessness regarding things like surveillance.
An attitude that has become common in the UK is to say the government needs powers control the "gammon" (i.e. the hoi polloi) from themselves, and to protect their children from their terrible parents, etc.
>Can you give specific examples?
Most rich western/northern European countries.
>which seems quite silly to me because it basically consists only of people that you directly or indirectly voted for
It's not silly when you consider that the candidates you can vote for, are all managed oppositions, each owned and supported by various mega-money interest groups. Why else did Bernie Sanders never got nominated as a presidential candidate even though many people supported him? Because he's not bought and paid for by the lobbyist groups. In every country it's like that.
> supported by various mega-money interest groups
‘Mega-money interest’ groups are a bugaboo for people who find it hard to accept that a large swath of the public doesn’t agree with them.
Why else did Bernie Sanders never got nominated as a presidential candidate even though many people supported him?
Because more people supported someone else.
Wrong. Democratic super delegates overrode the nomination in favor of someone more friendly to the true pro-business party line.
Democratic super delegates overrode the nomination
This literally didn't happen. This sort of conspiracy-theorizing nonsense is akin to Trump's about the 2020 election and has lead to a bunch of low-info voters making bad decisions.
I'm not disputing that there is gonna be some degree of plutocracy when political funding is uncontrolled and media presence can be bought for cheap.
But I think "managed opposition is the best you can get as voter" is incorrect; Trump is in my view neither managed nor "pro-establishment" in any way, and if everything was actually under "capitalist" control, then people like Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez or Tim Walz would never be allowed even close to a position of power.
Anti-establishment populists in Europe have seen comparable success (e.g. Italy where they are in power, or Germany where it just looks like a matter of time).
>Trump is in my view neither managed
Bruh.
> Italy where they are in power
Melloni only pretended to be anti establishment to win elections, but isn't. She campaigned on deporting illegals, and then gave them residency and right to work lol. Tell me a bigger rug pull. Trump is the same, he campaigned on a lot of things(Epstein list anyone?), but not actually executed on them or only did it only as a show (DOGE).
Trump is "managed" by whom, then? Musk? The Koch brothers? George Soros?
I don't see why you would ever want some mercurial populist in power if you are rich and established; risks to wealth/investments wastly outweight any potential gains from billionaire-friendly tax policy (and you could lobby for such tax policy elsewhere, as well).
News to me that the French, for example, trust their government and do not protest.
Trust is orthogonal to protests. Frech protest when the government takes away their gibs, not because it's spying on them.
Hey, Belgian here. Our government cannot just de-bank, de-pension or de- anything else you are suggesting, and definitely not by the "crime" of protesting (what a ridiculous statement!)
We protest here too by the way, this weekend about 100k in Brussels.
That you make these claims is just plain up ridiculous.
Are you aware that the world(and Europe for that matter) is much larger than Belgium, with way different laws on what the state can do to you?
For example in Canada they de-banked the truckers, in Germany they de-pensioned a retiree who was planning to bring back the Kaiser.
So yeah, it happens, you're just ignorant from your bubble.
You were talking about "people in the West". Belgians are people in the west, and we don't comply to your statements.
Secondly, I don't believe a word you say about Germany. Source please.
Don't generalize what happened once in Canada to the whole "Western world" and all kinds of de-.... And as far as I remember, those truckers were protesting. So they certainly didn't comply to your description of being indoctrinated to trust their government.
The only ban on media I've seen is from Farage, who's banned the media from covering local government where he has the power
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-media-...
Trump has a similar playbook.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-ap-white-house-press-pool-b...
Then there's also the normal US style limits (fighting words are banned, speech which harms big companies is banned, "obscenity" is restricted or banned, death threats to the president are banned (the UK also bans threats to people who aren't the president)
>>the UK also bans threats to people who aren't the president
It also bans non-specific jokey threats and arrests you with five armed police officers.
It also seems reasonable that companies have to follow local laws to operate there. Corporations superseding states seems just as dystopian as state repression of dissent. Granted, there is either confusion or misrepresentation as Mastodon is also banned.
The reporting seems pretty meagre; even strictly with these events, how are so many dying from batons and rubber bullets? Sure these can kill, but fourteen people?
It's awkward isn't it, because following local laws could mean being a helping hand of the oppressor... For an extreme example, an email company that is forced by a new law to reveal all emails of citizens of country X, or a payment app that has to upload all transactions to the government (and where the supreme court has ruled in favour of the surveillance state). The "moral" company would probably rather shut their operations, but even trillion-dollar companies relent... And who has the last word on what's moral?
> And who has the last word on what's moral?
The standard assumption in business is that you follow local laws and customs as they are a proxy for the moral system of the local people.
Are you operating a business or promoting western ideas?
Freedom is a western idea? Justice is a western idea?
If you’re suggesting you have distilled humanity to the essential rights and values that are obviously true and transcend culture. Yes that’s a western value.
I guess you’d disagree with Article 19 of the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights then, on the basis that these human rights are a “western” concept and the United Nations is a “western” institution?
> Article 19
> Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.
https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declaration-of-huma...
UN is a western liberal organization. I didn’t say I agree or disagree - I said businesses generally aim to abide by local law, not engage in western political projects.
You said because it is a proxy for local people's moral systems.
Firstly, laws are not a great proxy for local people's moral systems in dictatorships. I am not sure they are even that reliable proxy in democracies.
Secondly, while some exact expressions are of western origin, the general concept of freedom is pretty universal. Secondly, ideas of western origin might well be widely supported by people anywhere. Ideas spread.
Finally, where do you draw the line? Will you be entirely amoral and cooperate with any laws? Will you supply torture implements because the government wants them? A surveillance system primarily aimed at a ethnic or religious minority, or to identify supporters of the opposition? Genocide?
Most businesses claim to have some moral stance, and when they fail to stick to it it just looks like hypocrisy to me. A very visible example is the complete lack of rainbow logos in the same companies Chinese or Saudi operations during pride month - and media businesses that have a gay rights stance in the west will edit our gay scenes in Asia. Plenty of companies will claim to be anti-racist but do business than funds the Uighur genocide.
Freedom to say whatever you'd like with no repercussions short of calling for violence is certainly a western idea. Freedom from hate speech, for instance, is something one might like that you cannot find in the US. Without qualifiers "freedom" is a floating signifier.
I'm not sure what you mean by "justice".
A western idea in origin. According to the historian Tom Holland its a Christian idea in origin (read his book Dominion if you want an explanation) - does that mean atheists should not support it? its a good idea, everyone should adopt it.
No repercussions for anything short of calling violence is actually an American idea, to some extent other Anglophone countries. It is not generally accepted in continental Europe which has always had far more restrictions on speech. So its not generically "western". On the other hand some level of free speech is widely supported by many people in non-western countries. its in a lot of constitutions, and people will generally say they support free speech.
> It also seems reasonable that companies have to follow local laws to operate there.
Yes. That's as reasonable as the people there protesting their own government.
Did you read the next sentence?
I'm not disagreeing.
Corporations closing down there and moving away is completely reasonable. People protesting is completely reasonable.
The government forcing the corporations out is as reasonable as the people there say it is... so not at all.
- Local law meant to censor heavily any dissent - several pro corruption measures passed in the last few years - the people have been angry for long - social media just meant people now have to come on the streets
lazily pasting one of my comments from yesterday
"So after sacking the wildly (and deservingly) popular Chairman of the National Electricity Authority, after allowing ministers to set arbitrary and uncapped salaries for themselves and their workers, after obstructing and undermining the wildly (and deservingly) popular mayor of the Capital, and after doing like 15 of these really major, objectively anti-nation things, and getting called out for it in Social Media by the commoners, the 73 year old Prime Minister (in many ways a Trump-like figure; immune to shame or criticism) moves to ban social media in the country. "
In the meantime, Russia erected a copy of the great Chinese firewall with DPI and everything - blocking YouTube, foreign news, most voice chat apps, most vpn traffic, and even actively dropping ssh connections when too much bidirectional sustained traffic is being detected.
> The prime minister said the party is not against social media, “but what cannot be accepted is those doing business in Nepal, making money, and yet not complying with the law”.
I accept that there is corruption and manipulation by the government, but experience tells us also that these companies may be avoiding taxes towards zero.
They have all registered with Nepal's revenue office and are paying VAT [0]
The issue is the government in Nepal wants every social media holding company to have a designated person in Nepal who they can directly communicate with for takedowns without going through the traditional process, and if the company does not flllow through, hold that person legally liable.
It's a blatant censorship ploy because protests and dissatisfaction against the KP Sharma Oli, Sher Bahadur Deuba, and Prachanda musical chairs along with various constant corruption scandals are pushing Nepalis to ask for an alternative.
[0] - https://ekantipur.com/business/2025/01/28/en/from-google-met...
Ah, so they did the right thing for the (very) wrong reasons. Shame.
i’m pretty sure that’s a standard requirement.. or at least extremely similar to how Brazil does it and i think similar for lots of EU countries
The difference is, you can trust an EU country isn't filing a claim to put down a color revolution or that you can appeal via the judiciary.
A hybrid regime like Nepal is not like that.
I don’t agree and I think EU countries have shown they are more than willing to trample over free communication to maintain their “cordon sanitaire” as well as a certain PoV on Israel. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/telegram-founder-says-h...
EU members have an independent judiciary. Nepal does not. The local rep would be a whipping boy in a way they wouldn’t in the EU.
Have you seen how public polls on the judiciary have changed in just the past 5 years? People do not believe our institutions work. Though the judiciary may be independent, people believe that it is cut of the same cloth -- elite schools, disconnect from normal life
> Have you seen how public polls on the judiciary have changed in just the past 5 years?
For the EU? Genuinely, no. Curious for a source.
So, very similar to what happened with X in Brazil.
I'm afraid that website was hacked. It only redirects me to fraudulent raffles and casino stuff such as https://cdn.aucey.com/sweeps-survey/1034/es.html
Same experience here. Their ads repeatedly hijack the tab
Try this instead https://archive.is/zv17z . Not perfect, but the text can still be read behind the popover
Check your browser/OS, works fine here.
Rogue browser extensions are very rare these days. When people get redirected to malicious sites, it's almost always either due to the site having an infected WordPress installation or using a sketchy ad network.
>When people get redirected to malicious sites, it's almost always either due to the site having an infected WordPress installation or using a sketchy ad network.
That's often true. However, in this case when visiting the linked page[0] I am able to connect and view the article without issue.
Some details:
Location: USA
Browser: Firefox 128.14.0esr
Ublock Origin running with mostly default settings
Perhaps there's a location blocking issue and/or malware that targets certain locations/browser types?
[0] https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/massive-protests-in-...
Many news articles have failed to mention that the social media ban in Nepal was a direct response to a viral "nepo-baby vs. regular youth" online campaign, which ultimately backfired.
https://www.timesnownews.com/viral/why-nepo-kid-campaign-is-...
The government framed the ban as a measure against "unregistered social media" platforms. However, major companies like Facebook and YouTube have been registered and paying taxes for years. These companies did not agree to the government's overly controlling bill, which had not even been passed into law. The K.P. Oli government attempted to bypass a public vote and enforce it as a directive, threatening non-compliant apps with bans.
https://www.law-democracy.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Nep...
Every major global news outlet is portraying Nepal’s protest as being against a “social media ban.” That is misleading. Even most large local media houses are pushing the same narrative—which is not surprising, since many of them serve as PRs agents for political parties.
A bit about Nepal—the government here is run by a bunch of old farts. They are deeply corrupt and will do anything, legal or not, to protect their positions and continue embezzling the national budget. They lack accountability because they know they can/and have gotten away with anything. Example of a recent one [1]. Their children live lavishly, flexing their designer bags and watches, while the commoners struggle working tough jobs overseas just to survive.
They know that by controlling social media—as they already did with TikTok—they can censor any news about their corruption (which is a norm here) easily and keep the people in dark and in their favor. Now, they want Meta and Google to comply with their agenda and with the election coming, they need this bad!
This protest was never about a “social media ban.” It was against years and years of corruption, embezzlement and censorship. It was supposed to be peaceful. But politics here is a dirty game, and these veterans are seasoned pros. They hired goons to infiltrate the peaceful crowds, cause chaos and damage public property—a very old tactic here. That is how the demonstration spiraled out of control.
If you want to hear the voices of real people, look at r/Nepal and r/NepalSocial on Reddit.
And ask yourself—do you really think people are ready to risk their lives just for social media?
[1] https://old.reddit.com/r/NepalSocial/comments/1n9ra2q/hit_an...
They need the military to deal with the teenagers? I guess if all you have is a hammer…
Kinda like what the US does
I remember people here in a previous thread saying that the people supported the ban, well it doesn't seem like it's the case
supporters of the ban in 3 camps:
- "if social media won't follow our laws, we should ban them" - "I am affiliated to this party so this is ok" - "social media bad, hence ban good"
of course the deeper issue was that the social media was banned because it helped backlash against the powerful spread. and backlash mostly well-deserved because of the objectively pro-corruption anti-press anti-people laws being proposed and passed.
In many ways, this protest and this massacre was probably step n and n+1 in the process rather than an accident:
https://drive.google.com/drive/mobile/folders/18lJGrc5TSlsch...
Here's the drive link from the protest, recorded on camera.
Pretty sure this number will increase to lot more in coming days, terrible to see this state of a beautiful country.
Seems like a chapter out of the recent Sarah Wynn-Williams book
Careless People: A Cautionary Tale of Power, Greed, and Lost Idealism Hardcover
https://www.amazon.com/Careless-People-Cautionary-Power-Idea...
It is hard not to use social medias in this age, and the citizens have the right to fight for them, even if it resolves in their deaths.
As with pouring water, the world keeps spinning, and the strife goes on.
Nepal is an interesting nation.
Compared to nearby poor nations, Nepal is safe and its people are perceived to be welcoming. It's the only serious candidate for being a ski-nation in all of mainland Asia. If Nepal wanted, it could transform itself into a Bali style tourist destination and ascend towards being a middle economy. Unlike India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, which have to solve 1-billion-people scale problems, at 30 million, Nepal can resort to scaled down solutions.
Nepal's refusal to leverage the (few) advantages of its geography is baffling.
The internal politics are even more bizarre. As a communist-adjacent nation, it has a closed off economy with deep suspicion towards free markets. Yet, the national messaging alternates between blaming India or China for all their problems. The local populace (like every populace) eats this up. From my observations, neither nation affects Nepal's economics much. (national security is a separate conversation)
> protests reflect young people's widespread frustration with government action to tackle corruption and boost economic opportunities.
South Asia is coming off a recent protest->overthrow movement in Bangladesh. The youth protesters had similar complaints. Yet, the outcome was an even less democratic system which now owed favors to the violent parts of the society that helped complete the ouster. Similarly, Nepal has a history of political instability and violent ousters, most of which had led of very little economic change.
The youth's complaints are valid and I support their protests. However, do the protesters have an outcome in mind ? They want an improved economy. But, will they be okay with opening Nepal up to free markets ? This may mean selling resort building contracts to major western ski companies. It may mean opening unsafe sweatshops for Adidas to make shoes there. It may mean resource exploration by foreign mining companies.
I say this, because this is a South Asian disease. We want our nations to have a strong economy. But, economic liberalization can sometimes look like colonization, and this hurts the ego of proud global-south nations. We want progress, while keeping all foreign influence at bay. We want social welfare, but the nation is bankrupt. It's paradoxical. When our nations do move towards markets, it happens at gunpoint (1991) or with steep political costs (Farm Bill, GST) to the the incumbent.
Not sure what the solution is here. But, the last decade has made me suspicious towards protest movements that do not have positive policy outcomes in mind. The student's anger is valid, but impressionable students are the the time-honored vanguard used by more powerful opposition to trigger coups.
> But, economic liberalization can sometimes look like colonization, and this hurts the ego of proud global-south nations.
As an aside, this categorization (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_North_and_Global_South) has always seemed problematic to me.
> The Global South classification, as used by governmental and developmental organizations, was first introduced as a more open and value-free alternative to Third World,[6] and likewise potentially "valuing" terms such as developed and developing.
But I don't think it's "more open and value-free" at all. The rhetoric around it always seems to be alluding vaguely to racist and/or colonialist causes of the economic disparities; but labeling the disadvantaged places as "South" reinforces that colonialist view (cf. maps presented upside-down to avoid supposed biases), and also brings in connotations of specifically American political history (Union vs Confederacy kinda stuff, you know).
Excluding Australia and New Zealand also seems intellectually dishonest. If places like Moldova are "North" because of the physical reality rather than than economics, than Australia and New Zealand (which also were colonized) should be "South" (just as the wealthier parts of the Middle East are). The border isn't anything like straight, either.
If we want to highlight a problem with economic disparity, we should not turn up our noses at terms that are fundamentally about the economic disparity.
It's called the global south because it is poor. These terms (3rd world, developing world) are associated with poverty because they are a cluster of poor nations. The countries are poor because they're badly run. Their institutions are corrupt. Their population is under-educated and under-productive.
It can't value free, because there will always be a value judgement here.
It hurts. Yes, colonialism and a history of foreign exploitation has meant that global south nations have been dealt worse cards. But, the present is what it is. I'm sick of poor nations (like my own) feeding their delusions about the current state of their nation. The people have to learn to separate their identity as proud successors of a rich historic culture and their current state of disrepair. The inability to do so, keeps us poor and susceptible to further exploitation by local power brokers.
Just because twitter influencers use more offensive terms for these nations, doesn't mean that civil forums should overcompensate with euphemisms that hides the obvious judgement inherent to such groupings.
> It's the only serious candidate for being a ski-nation in all of mainland Asia
Indian Himalayas have ski resorts.
> If Nepal wanted, it could transform itself into a Bali style tourist destination and ascend towards being a middle economy.
Landlocked country with little natural resources. Who's funding this project? Watch a YouTube about the Kathmandu-Pokhara road. Infrastructure is not easy there.
> Nepal's refusal to leverage the (few) advantages of its geography is baffling.
They grow rice on hills, have a thriving mountaineering ecosystem, and build dense cities in the valleys large enough to support them. How are they not leveraging them?
> As a communist-adjacent nation, it has a closed off economy with deep suspicion towards free markets.
The county to their south went this way after the Raj, for what I believe are fair reasons. I can see how that influenced Nepal's hesitancy to open up more to international brands.
> Yet, the national messaging alternates between blaming India or China for all their problems.
They aren't wrong! India had "interstate entry taxes" up until 2017 - taxes that cargo had to pay in each state on the way to the ports. It wasn't even the just the national governments making life harder to Nepali, it was individual states!
> However, do the protesters have an outcome in mind
Their anger is justification enough. It's tough for college graduates in the region to find a career that matches their education level.
> But, will they be okay with opening Nepal up to free markets?
Nepal isn't as closed to free markets as you keep insinuating. There are malls with Asian brands where people can go shop. Not having as many American brands makes sense given the logistics problems. There are western restaurants. There are western hotel brands. There are Indian hotel brands.
> This may mean selling resort building contracts to major western ski companies.
Taj, Oberoi, Leela (Indian resort brands) could probably build a wonderful one. And they haven't, I presume they have the numbers demonstrating this doesn't work economically.
> It may mean opening unsafe sweatshops for Adidas to make shoes there.
There's no world where that makes sense economically. See my note about India previous state tariffs/state taxes. Just presume there's all sorts of hidden middlemen between KTM and ports.
> It may mean resource exploration by foreign mining companies.
China would be there already if it was viable (read more about the few roads north to China)
> with steep political costs (Farm Bill, GST) to the the incumbent.
Your wording makes me think you are Indian. If I'm correct, The best thing you can do is encourage more Indians to go enjoy what Nepal has to offer now, so they can afford to invest in some of the improvements you propose :)
Today is UNESCO's International Literacy Day, and this year's theme is digital literacy.
Quite ironic to choose this day to start trying to make an entire nation digitally illiterate.
Might be the wrong reasons, but highly skewed and externally controlled social media do not necessarily mean bastions of free speech, they have shown that powerful group with right incentives and structures can capture and influence perception. Everyone has biases and social media will reinforce or amplify them if an external adversary uses in a targeted way.
Also while free speech and protests are important, the nature of protests or certain elements fuelling fire in the resentment can lead to these becoming completely out of control and destroying property or harming passersby. Sometimes pure anarchy is the goal of routine rabble rousers who use this opportunity. So I will go out on a limb over here and say no one over here really knows what happened in the sequence of decision making by the police and there may be some instances where certain actions may have been justified to avoid further escalation.
education education education
I hope beautiful people of Nepal finally take down the corrupt scum that has been holding their country back for generations.
These governments that block social media or control/monitor the internet to avoid critics of government or dissent, whether that be Nepal, Tunisia, Turkey, UK, Germany, China, Egypt, US, Russia, Israel, are always shocked when there is an uprising. Unsurprisingly when a government tries to control people this closely many will see the flaws in it and make a stand and rightly so whether that be digitally or in person. It's understandable why so many tech knowledgeable dissidents create or use apps that bypass ridiculous laws.
> These governments that block social media or control/monitor the internet to avoid critics of government or dissent, whether that be Nepal, Tunisia, Turkey, UK, Germany, China, Egypt, US, Russia, Israel, are always shocked when there is an uprising.
I beg to differ. I don’t think that any of these governments are shocked that the people eventually fight back. I think that they simply make the mistake of underestimating the power of the people (especially when united) and severely overestimating their ability to suppress the people and their dissent. That’s how tyranny works.
That said, freedom of speech is always worth fighting for! Once you lose your right to speak freely, it’s only a matter of time before you start to lose everything else.
India ?
[flagged]
> Do you have anything to say or did god put you here to be a dink?
You can't comment like this on HN, no matter how right you are or feel you are. The comment would have been fine without that line.
We detached this comment from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45173338 and marked it off topic.
While I sympathize with your viewpoint, your language is far outside HN's guidelines and I am going to flag your comment.
Why are you dancing around the issue instead of answering the question? What was the point of making that comment? "Giving a history lesson" is simply bullshit. If you want to say that you're pro-censorship then just say it.
Imagine dying because you can’t post on Facebook so you rioted and vandalized government buildings.
Please make yourself aware of all the facts before posting ignorant comments like this. Children died, shot while protesting against blatant corruption and lack of accountability that's going on for decades. The social media ban was just the final straw.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/8/six-killed-in-nepal-...
I wish my government would ban those attention traps too... Or perhaps less hyperbolicly, I wish people wouldn't use those platforms for their valuable free speech, and perhaps save their words for only the most valuable of utterances. But then they would all be here on HN. ;)
A ban would be a terrible idea. Some appropriate regulation and breaking up of monopolies might improve the situation. It's heartening to see the EU initiatives.
Negatives here we come: How can this post get to HN front-page and not any USAn turmoil, Gaza or Argentina libertarian downfall news?
This is novel. I didn’t know this was happening and am learning a lot from informed comments. That…doesn’t tend to describe those other topics’ discourse.
I think it is a fair question: why is this allowed to stay on the front page while the deaths of people in Gaza is not? Israel just killed a bunch of journalists for organizations like the Associated Press in a double tap strike on a hospital and we're not allowed to discuss it?
Oh, let me guess... The protests were organized by groups that get their funding from the NED or other Western sponsored NGOs ? (Asking for a friend)
No evidence of any of that. I don’t see how it’s incredible to believe students will flip out if you ban social media.
(Though the meme of all protests and civil discontent in Asia being the product of Western influence is a popular one among right-wing circles.)
> the meme of all protests and civil discontent in Asia being the product of Western influence is a popular one among right-wing circles
I listen to enough "right-wing circles" to end up getting people tarnishing me as one just for standing up for them (despite all kinds of progressive views) and I frankly don't know what you're talking about. My friends that tend to get interpreted as "right-coded" have historically been supportive of protest movements in Taiwan and Hong Kong.
In Asia.
What's missing in this discussion is the infiltration by agitating forces trying to muddy the waters. There are the regressive forces trying to bring back the monarchy which can't be good for anyone.
No kings.
Kids died today. Not jholays.
Had to "phone a friend" on that one:
"In Nepal, “jhola” (bag) turned into “jholay” is slang. It usually refers to people—often students, activists, or intellectual types—who carry a cloth bag (jhola) and are associated with being overly “bookish,” pseudo-intellectual, leftist, or idealistic. Depending on tone, it can be affectionate, neutral, or dismissive (like calling someone a “hippie” or “armchair intellectual” in English)."
EDIT: sounds like "my friend" is hallucinating. Thanks, actual people for helping me understand jholay. It seemed lazy though to simply ask in the comments, "What's jholay?"
Nepali here. In this context, a jholey is a party foot soldier. An unquestioning party worker who would literally carry their leader's bag, follow them everywhere, and do any menial task in hopes of gaining political favor.
My understanding is a jholey is a sycophant who does not have their own political principles but are "carrying the bag" for someone else. Closer to paid thugs than idealistic activists. Might want to consider a different phone a friend.