If You Don't Design Your Career, Someone Else Will

(gregmckeown.com)

109 points | by TheAlchemist 2 hours ago ago

67 comments

  • Swizec 2 hours ago ago

    My favorite lens on this comes from Hamming:

    > It is well known the drunken sailor whos taggers to the left or right n independent random steps will, on the average, end up about sqrt(n) steps from the origin. But if there is a pretty girl in one direction, then his steps will tend to go in that direction and he will go a distance proportional to n. In a lifetime of many, many independent choices, small and large, a career with a vision will get you a distance proportional to n, while no vision will get you only the distance sqrt(n). In a sense, the main difference between those who go far and those who do not is some people have a vision and others do not and therefore can only react to the current events as they happen.

    Just a tiny bit of bias towards a direction will get you very far very fast.

    I once modeled+visualised this with a bit of javascript[1] and it's quite surprising to see the huge difference from even a tiny multiplication factor on each random/probabilistic decision.

    [1] https://swizec.com/blog/your-career-needs-a-vision/

    • onion2k 9 minutes ago ago

      That's really nice, but the point where the vision is should move too. You learn as you progress. What you enjoy changes. The entire industry moves. Being focused on the goal you defined 30 years ago is almost certainly wrong for most people.

    • haritha-j 12 minutes ago ago

      It's a lovely metaphor, but I find myself at odds with the logic. What you sacrifice with vision I think is flexibility to respond to serendipity.

    • A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2 hours ago ago

      It is not something I share very often, because people assume a lot when I do, but von Braun[1] shared a similar idea. Ignoring for a moment his past, one cannot say that he had no achievements further supporting position noted by OP.

      [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Aim_at_the_Stars

    • monkeydust 20 minutes ago ago

      I have generally had strong vision in my career but this year due to external forces at play at work I have been much more reactive to the chaos and generally felt off the whole year, this was a nice mental model to step through, liked the visualization.

    • y-curious an hour ago ago

      This is a lovely mental model and also makes me feel a host of existential dread. I had a semblance of vision before gen AI and I think that vision needs serious revision

    • NegatioN an hour ago ago

      I also really treasure that quote. Your visualization really made it hit home again though.

      It does make me reflect on this piece I wrote 9(!!) years ago though, which hasn't completely materialized. I think I'm due for a re-alignment of priorities.

      https://www.jrishaug.com/Who-do-you-want-to-be/

    • raincole an hour ago ago

      Wait, are you saying that for a symmetrical random walk, the expected distance is of the order of sqrt(n), but even for a slightly biased random walk (like 0.5000001 chance to take right) it's of the order of n?

      Edit: well of course it is. I was thinking expected position (which should be 0) not distance

      • jeffwass an hour ago ago

        The “expected distance” is not what you think here.

        For a binomial distribution of probability p and (1-p), after N steps the expectation value of right steps is Np.

        The Variance is Np(1-p), so the standard deviation (or Root-Mean-Square) scales as Sqrt(N).

      • NooneAtAll3 an hour ago ago

        yep

        "expected distance" is average abs(coordinate), so for biased walk (and big enough time) it's simply abs(bias)*time, and for unbiased it's deviation==sqrt(variance)

        • raincole an hour ago ago

          Oh right, makes sense.

    • amelius an hour ago ago

      But what about people who dislike changing jobs and only take a few steps during their entire career?

      Also, I find it hard to believe that people don't move into the general direction they want to be in. So I'd like to see some examples.

      • lbotos 31 minutes ago ago

        You don’t know anyone in your life that “talks big game?

        Or someone else that “can’t get their stuff together?”

        A lot of people never even “move”.

    • ErigmolCt an hour ago ago

      The vision doesn't have to be accurate, it just has to be directional

      • runlaszlorun 11 minutes ago ago

        Taken out of context, this line seems like a valid description of our ethos these days lol.

    • elevatortrim an hour ago ago

      I think the beauty of this quote is working more than its content.

      Most people, even when they do not sit down and think about it, follow one of the two career paths:

      - Some people will actively pursue the next logical progression (senior, lead/manager, head/vp, exec).

      - Some will happily stay in their position unless the next one is offered to them.

      Being deliberate will always work better compared to being random, but it is not like all people who succeed in their careers deliberately planned to get where they are.

      I would even guess that for the vast majority of successful careers, competency and luck played a much bigger role than being deliberate about it.

      • tayo42 26 minutes ago ago

        > would even guess that for the vast majority of successful careers, competency and luck played a much bigger role than being deliberate about it.

        I think this is true. I had a while where my career was doing really well constant steps up, I was learning, getting promoted, was working on great projects and problems that were engaging and led to easy promotions. Then I got a new manager and it was downhill. Then I got a new job and the problems are insignificant and there's no room for growth of any kind. If my latest job was earlier in my career my career would be very different.

    • anal_reactor 35 minutes ago ago

      Ok but how do you know that the pretty girl isn't a succubus?

      • grim_io 20 minutes ago ago

        That's just a bonus.

  • keiferski an hour ago ago

    The main thing missing from this IMO is an element of chance or randomness, the ability to incorporate “unknown unknowns” into your life. The most interesting people I’ve come across have had a variety of jobs, many of which they knew absolutely nothing about when starting out. There is a genuine value add when you’ve worked beyond the same white collar profession your entire working career.

    In other words, the problem in designing your life is that you’re almost always going to pick things you already know. Maybe that gets you to the peak of your current profession over twenty years…but maybe some other job is actually a lot more fulfilling to you.

    I’m not sure how to incorporate this into a young person’s real life experience, but I do think gap years, varied internships, volunteering, etc. are probably a good start.

    I recently listened to a podcast with a guy that wrote a book advocating that young people spend 4 years getting a pilot’s license, working on a ranch, becoming an EMT, and various other useful skills/jobs. That seems like a great idea, although I didn’t like the hostility to traditional college he had in offering this plan.

    • nicbou 5 minutes ago ago

      In Quebec we have a sort of college between high school and university where you are forced to take "bullshit classes" along with the stuff you chose to study. Mine included philosophy, Spanish, photography, canoeing, and a few others. At the time it felt like a diversion, but it was a welcome introduction to something other than computer science.

      In my first year of university, a senior grabbed me by the shoulders and told me that I _have_ to try an internship or semester abroad. One thing led to another and I have just celebrated 10 years in Germany. It led to my current career, which is not at all what I studied.

      To answer your question, I think that it requires a certain curiosity, and an appetite for experimentation. I feel like the system is teaching kids the opposite of that.

    • Peroni 19 minutes ago ago

      >The main thing missing from this IMO is an element of chance or randomness, the ability to incorporate “unknown unknowns” into your life.

      100% this. When I started working in recruitment, it was literally intended to be a temporary means to an end. I stumbled across Hacker News back in 2010 and accidentally uncovered a niche (tech startups) that has resulted in a career where over the past 15 years has evolved into holding VP level roles at YC startups to now running my own successful recruitment and HR advisory business for startups. I can legitimately attribute that entire path and growth to accidentally stumbling across this website and couldn't possibly have guessed the impact it would ultimately have on my career.

    • Xunjin 24 minutes ago ago

      In a society where everything needs to be optimal, randomness is seen as a mistake.

      • keiferski 17 minutes ago ago

        Yeah and even if you’re totally uninterested in “having an interesting life” and just want to maximize income/job prospects, I think you can make the argument that a little bit of randomness is actually the optimal path because it increases your luck surface area.

        For example - working in a well-rated fine dining restaurant over a summer while you’re studying computer science seems totally unrelated and not optimal. But maybe that unique experience is what stands out on your resume, and maybe the knowledge about wine or food you acquired there builds a connection with an investor or manager, years down the line.

    • tock 36 minutes ago ago

      Do you have a link to that podcast? Sounds interesting!

  • etothepii 2 minutes ago ago

    Deliberate planning is great but serendipity is important too. Some of the richest people I know made most of their wealth as a consequence of being in a position to act* when opportunities presented themselves.

    My guess is that it's important not to be overly focused on the intermediate goals and the more debt you have the less able you feel to take risks.

    *it may be more appropriate to say start than act as in the two cases that immediately come to Kind they were both 10+ year journeys.

  • cardanome an hour ago ago

    I do something similar for development of me as a human being. I ask myself how can I improve, what kind of person do I want to be, how can I help make the world a better place.

    My "career" is just a means to an end to put food on the table. Also being in my 30s I think I have mostly maxed it out anyway. Sure I might increase my wage a little bit but all in all as for being an IC it is a good as it gets. Sure there is always room for improvement but I am already constantly the person with the most technical skills in the room so it would not grant me any benefit.

    I don't think your "career" needs to be a major focus in your life once you are set up at least. Especially if you don't do any meaningful work that actually helps people like being a doctor or teacher or something.

    In the end my work just makes someone else richer, it doesn't have any meaning. It does not make the world a better place. Probably a worse place sometimes. I just do it to not starve.

    • zwnow 14 minutes ago ago

      > In the end my work just makes someone else richer, it doesn't have any meaning.

      This is something I struggle with a lot. I left companies before, because the job felt meaningless and making some rich guy richer doesn't sound meaningful to me. I am trying to come up with a business idea I can work on on the side, that actually is supposed to make the world a better place, but I am struggling to find anything I have enough experience in to pursue.

      I am leaning towards activism now, because that is probably the most achievable thing to do for me. Just building info sites nobody reads, trying to make non tech people aware about how Amazon, Google and so on makes life worse for everyone. Or how anti privacy laws are probably a bad idea.

      But that does not feel fruitful either. My everyday life is consumed by the desire of having some kind of impact, making the world better.

  • bravetraveler a minute ago ago

    If they can make it end soon, fine by me

  • hwhehwhehegwggw 2 hours ago ago

    I would take it one step up and say if you don't design your life intentionally your career will.

    • ramon156 2 hours ago ago

      Juniors fall into this pitfall so quick. Our newest hire actually set boundaries early on and I was pleasantly surprised

      • georgeburdell 4 minutes ago ago

        Disagree. This kind of comment is furtively pulling up the ladder behind you. Do as I say not as I do. Junior is the time to learn as much as possible and take risky bets (and suffer accordingly). When I was in a junior in a factory, the night shift knew me well. Nowadays, I've pared it back to 50 or so hours per week, because I now have a family, which is fine but it came at the cost of basically zero time to learn or do things other than what my manager asks.

      • madduci an hour ago ago

        I hope they were work-life balance boundaries

      • nottorp 2 hours ago ago

        So it's the kind of work place where you have to set boundaries? :)

        • ramon156 33 minutes ago ago

          We work in different timezones so it's a mess. Either people give up their morning or they give up their evening time.

          I'm at the bottom of the chain here and have no authority to change this. Given that I'm being let go soon there's not much reason for them to care about my mental state either.

          But from the time I've been here, yes, you need to set boundaries or they'll do it for you. It seems like most PMs are used to talking to robots, because that's how they talk to us lately.

        • ManuelKiessling 2 hours ago ago

          You need to set your bounds in every single workplace, because no one workplace can set the right boundaries for everyone.

        • y-curious an hour ago ago

          “Set your own boundaries, or someone else will do it for you”

          Turtles all the way down

          • ramon156 27 minutes ago ago

            I think this mostly speaks about setting boundaries with your higher-up, which is revolved around you.

            So, I guess it would be "Turtles all the way up"

        • fifilura 2 hours ago ago

          What workplace is not?

    • paganel an hour ago ago

      Statements like this one come for a position of privilege, which is to be expected on a forum like this one targeting techies who are most probably solidly middle-class, but just wanted to point that out. More exactly, most of the (normal) people are NOT in the position of designing their lives, believing otherwise is, again, tainted by said position of privilege.

      • integralid an hour ago ago

        You either misunderstood or we disagree fundamentally. Everyone can and should design their life. Of course richer people have a lot more choices, and poorer people a lot more constraints, but everyone can make informed choices.

        Believing "most of the normal people" have no agency is condescending.

        • bboozzoo 5 minutes ago ago

          Oh they have agency. They also have bills to pay, families to take care of and many other obligations that folks of privilege do not need to be bothered with. It is immediately obvious how privileged we are compared to many others who are not a liberty of designing their lives or careers.

  • KronisLV 2 hours ago ago

    In regards to the review part:

    What helps me is keeping around my TODO.txt month by month, as well as a lot of screenshots and images of the things I find relevant for sharing in stand ups and meetings and such (as well as presentations).

    So if I need to review the past month/year (e.g. when I want to update CV/site or catch up with management), it’s just a matter of going through a bunch of text and images without a lot of unnecessary fluff, like digging through Jira. Maybe if I want to get the approximate time/effort spent on particular stuff, based on the amount of activity there.

    Alongside that, it’s also nice to document stuff that was particularly good, or all the ways software broke in (and what broke how often), as well as stuff that pissed me off and made me want to quit (sometimes people/mindsets, sometimes tangible code or practices).

    When the default is just going with the flow and not documenting anything and doing no self reflection, every improvement upon that helps.

    • A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 an hour ago ago

      GPT was actually pretty good for this use case until 5.2 kneecapped its long term memory and now its more aggressive about pruning ( very annoying as wide recall now has to be explicitly invoked ).

    • xianwen an hour ago ago

      Very interesting! Do you organize screenshots and images by day and by topic?

      • KronisLV an hour ago ago

        Currently not really, at least not for the weekly status meetings.

        Typically I'll have a folder with a bunch of numbered files in the order that I want to talk about them, since it's easier to just quickly share my screen and run through then when I want to let others know what I've done, for example along the lines of:

          01-migrate-gulp-grunt-to-vite.png
          02-vue-prebuild-script-check-unused-translations.png
          03-java-add-compile-memory-limit-ide.png
          04-server-update-python-for-ansible.png
          ...
        
        If I need them for like a yearly performance review, then I'll probably do a pass where I group them into named folders and write a doc loosely following those topics, given that I might work on similar improvements and fixes across more than just 1 week. Pretty low friction daily and also when I need more structure.
  • ErigmolCt an hour ago ago

    This reads a bit like classic self-help, but there's a solid point hiding underneath the platitudes. Most careers do get shaped by inertia: the projects you say yes to, the skills you accidentally accumulate, the expectations other people quietly set for you

    • bebb an hour ago ago

      I find that's a good reason, other than looking for an increase in salary, to seek out new employment opportunities every few years, while nudging your resume more towards the career you want rather than the career you've experienced.

  • doctorhandshake 17 minutes ago ago

    “The crime which bankrupts men and nations is that of turning aside from one’s main purpose to serve a job here and there.”

    As a former career contractor who took probably 7 commercial jobs I didn’t care about for every 1 creative job I wanted to do but for which I was underpaid, this feels deeply true.

  • g947o 42 minutes ago ago

    I planned to get out of my current company and stop wasting my life two years ago.

    The job market and my visa status meant that it's either impossible or I need to make significant sacrifices.

    So that's life.

    • ramon156 26 minutes ago ago

      Wondering if working as a contractor is any different. you won't stay longer than 6-12 months on a project and you can safely say goodbye without having to explain a gap in your resume

  • socketcluster 41 minutes ago ago

    I have a really hard time designing my career in tech because I believe that people already have more options than they need or can afford.

    What people need aren't more options. What they need is MONEY; which is the ability to obtain the options which exist. And the only way to give people more money is through political means. This is why I was interested in crypto; it seemed to get straight to the point...

    I later quit crypto due to too much corruption in the space and launched a mainstream startup with a co-founder centered around helping people find 'the perfect job' but I quit as co-founder because the idea of it almost makes me want to vomit now.

    The system is firing people en masse. The system itself doesn't want people to have jobs... So me, trying to work against the system by offering a solution that operates within the system feels futile and like gaslighting users and myself. It's selling a dream. There is no perfect job. Reality is our socio-economic system doesn't even have a shitty job for you... Let alone a perfect job... And most jobs seem like bullshit jobs anyway.

    It's extremely hard to find an idea that's both truly useful and profitable these days. That's a shame because that's exactly what I want to do with my life but I feel like this does not align with what is possible within the current system. I cannot find any such opportunities in the tech sector.

    Someone told me I should get into politics but again if I think about what the typical politician does, I feel nauseous. The only kind of politician I could possibly be is the honest kind that gets assassinated... And of course I don't want that. Besides, nobody would fund me... My hitman would probably have an easier time raising funding to 'take me out' of politics than I would raising funding to get into it.

    • ramon156 29 minutes ago ago

      I resonate so much with you. I'm in the middle of getting my product out for people to use and naively kept thinking that a good product means people are interested.

      I need to integrate with tools that prematurely deny me because I'm not a big company. I basically already lost, despite my tool being much more reasonable and maintainable (I've worked at the competitors and it was a mess).

      The world doesn't care about good products, they just care about how it looks. Big companies look good, you don't. It got me demotivated early on. You really need thick skin to start selling a product.

  • qwertytyyuu 27 minutes ago ago

    Its that time of the year again huh. The times for unfilled news years aspirations.

  • ursAxZA 37 minutes ago ago

    When I buy clothes, I always “choose” the outfit the mannequin is already wearing.

  • neuralkoi an hour ago ago

    A lot of us live our lives according to the expectations of others (our parents, society, etc) because this is all we know how to do at first and what the "system" reinforces through school, career, etc. and this difference between what we want to do and what we actually end up doing can end up causing lots of suffering to ourselves (and to others).

    I've seen fear as the primary obstacle to trying something different when the current route is not working. It's really hard to step outside the comfort zone in those situations.

    • marginalia_nu an hour ago ago

      My 2c as someone who has ended up in a non-traditional career track, mostly doing my own thing and getting paid for it.

      While you definitely need a higher than average tolerance for uncertainty, the big thing is just not seeing all the options. Many choices are occluded by the options presented to you by employers, the educational system, etc. The spectrum of careers, which is a continuous higher-dimensional blob of "things you can do to make money", is systematized in such a way that while there are paths to unusual career outcomes, most of those paths can not be expressed.

      You may on some level want to reach some career or lifestyle goal, but often the path to that destination isn't obvious, and it's definitely never presented to you as an option among the things you can choose, and more than likely you'll have few if any role models or people to ask for guidance if you find yourself on that track.

    • ErigmolCt an hour ago ago

      Not just fear of failure, but fear of disappointing people, losing status, or admitting (to yourself and others) that the plan you’ve been following isn't actually working

  • kstenerud 2 hours ago ago

    Kinda reminds me of an interesting scene from the Netflix series "Castlevania"

    "If you don't have your own story, you become part of someone else's."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MofDRVtRec

  • kbrkbr an hour ago ago

    I enjoyed this article and think it's good advice, and I also think that the punchline (title + last sentence) is wrong. Not that it makes a big difference, I just treasure texts more that I feel the author thought through to the last detail.

    If you don't design your career, in most cases I guess no one will. In the comments are good examples, like the random walk of the drunken sailor. The cases in which you could use the phrase "someone else designed it for me" in a meaningful way seem rather rare to me.

  • fifilura 2 hours ago ago

    I don't think the random sailor analogy is a perfect fit.

    If you guide your own direction too strictly you will both risk moving yourself into a dead end, but also miss out on unexpected opportunities.

    • A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 an hour ago ago

      But your opportunities depend partially on what you can actually do. In other words, optmize for your strengths, refine what works, remove what doesn't. Opportunities will come, but if you are not prepared based on your own predispositions, they are wasted on you anyway. Direction of the sailor of the sailor is but one factor in this.

  • NoiseBert69 an hour ago ago

    I'd more say: if you don't care about your career yourself - someone else with interest conflicts will

  • WhereIsTheTruth 32 minutes ago ago

    > Many years ago I followed this process and, without exaggeration, it changed the course of my life. The insight I gained led me to quit law school, leave England and move to America and start down the path as a teacher and author. You’re reading this because of that choice. It remains the single most important career decision of my life

    That "decision" required a safety net most will never have

    Designing your career isn’t about self introspection, it’s about leverage

    And leverage is stolen from the invisible hands that keep your world running while you journal

    The problem isn't individual, but systemic: why is the freedom to choose rationed so narrowly?

    For a lot of people, work isn't a career to design, it's survival math

  • te_chris 26 minutes ago ago

    Also see Feedback Analysis, by Peter Drucker from Managing Oneself

  • andrewstuart 2 hours ago ago

    No one else will.