If you live in America, are banking with an American bank, and hold your investments denominated in dollars I'm not sure that just shifting your investments to other global equities would really get you the outcome you want if your goal is to hedge against this specific risk. Besides if this really is the trade war to end all trade wars, the world losing one of the largest markets (the U.S.) is going to depress the entire global economy. I assume if you're even considering VXUS you're not close to retirement so wouldn't the better strategy be to just keep adding to VOO?
I believe that TD's US presence is still a subsidiary of the main Canadian corporation - and there are some banks that will explicitly offer offshore non-US currency accounts. That is a good point to raise though since most banks may offer holdings in overseas funds but if they're managed domestically they'd likely be subject to the same currency shocks and your account may still read well on paper but be effectively unreachable.
I am retired but I have not sold all my stocks and moved to bonds. Even if you use the "rule of 100" I should still have around 40% of my portfolio in stocks.
But to your point, I am certain that I am not going to profit from this fuckery. (Although, hilariously I bought silver a decade ago to teach my daughters about investing—and they each purchased a once or two from me. Of course it turned out to be a local maxima and they grow up, went to college—watching their investment sink all the while. Perhaps they did learn a valuable lesson in investing.)
No, I'm just doing damage control.
I had asked a month or so back as to where the "safe harbors" were during the Great Depression. My impression (and the responses did nothing to contradict this) were that there were no safe harbors—as perhaps there may not be any in some dystopian future we may or may not be headed for.
"Hold, don't sell during the panic," is all anyone could offer. (And so too holding those silver coins until now might also have been a valuable lesson for my daughters?)
> where the "safe harbors" were during the Great Depression [...] were that there were no safe harbors
Surely economy and the world economy operates in a completely different way now than it did back them, if not in the US, the very least in the rest of the world? But that's just my intuition, maybe things are more similar than they are different in reality?
> Of course it turned out to be a local maxima
Not to pour salt into your wounds (sorry), suppose your daughters were born 1980-1990 sometime, you really managed to hit exactly the stagnation phase it seems, that sucks but probably true what you say, still had a lesson in there :) I got curious and maybe others are too, especially if you don't usually look at price of commodities so here: https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-10...
What other hedges are there? Gold and silver I am guessing. Anything else to avoid dependency on the US stock market and exposure to the US Dollar? It feels like these assets have nowhere to go but down.
I am genuinely worried that my life savings will be destroyed by high inflation and the decreasing value of the dollar. This is the 3rd major market "correction" in my career and it looks like it will be the worst. Trump is doing so much economic damage to America... the outcomes are unthinkable for working people. I have trouble imagining what life will be like on the other side of this period of financial chaos.
The reality I have come to believe: if it goes down, we all go down. I get worrying about how to protect your life savings, I was worrying too. Now I just accept that we'll all be in the bread lines. Not that there's any comfort in that really, but that it might simply be an inevitability.
If you really dive into Canada's behavior since the Bush administration it's plainly obvious that they have not been a good ally. They have the hubris of the United States with the economy of Mexico. I don't agree with Trump's rhetoric and think his handling of the situation has been antagonistic and counter-productive. But his grievances are legitimate. Canada has been actively undermining the United State's attempts to contain/separate from China. They are using the opportunity to enhance their own economy at the expense of the American people. The historic nature of the relationship between Canada and America has allowed for much of it to stay under the radar. I don't think Canada would be in my top-10 allies list though. I would be much more concerned about losing Japan, South Korea, Mexico or Israel. Canada is what I would have described in high school as a "fake friend".
The only example I can think of is Canada arresting Meng Wanzhou when the US asked, and not backing down in the face of significant Chinese threats, souring Chinese relationships significantly.
But that's an example of Canada being a good ally to the US.
What a load of BS, Canada is the best friend the US could ask for.
Remember in 2018 when Canada held Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou under a U.S. extradition request? It tanked Canada/China relations and had trade ramifications Canada is still feeling today.
Being a good ally isn't just doing entirely what the US says the should do. The US needs to coordinate responses to China and work with allies to come to a shared understanding. How the current administration operates is assuming these allied country are fiefdoms. The economic situation in Canada isn't great, and the US could make it stronger, but refuses to.
The same feedback is largely true for most US allies. If you want people to decouple from China, you need to offset and fix the underlying reason they are trading with them.
I have many complaints about Trump's handling of foreign policy. Don't mistake my tone for approval of his approach. He is needlessly aggressive and domineering. We have tried the carrot approach though. Coalition of the willing. By and large I would say our allies are spiritually willing but physically unable to. If we use Canada for example, I don't think they need to jump at every demand, but things like stopping counterfeit sales (Pacific Mall), taking meaningful steps to stop cartel money laundering (Vancouver), actually meeting military commitments (Ukraine promises). A lot of it doesn't get reported because people don't really want to hear it. Like I said, Trump is not right in his handling of these issues, but Canada allows them to fester because its in their interest.
> No single person, or President, has done more for NATO than President Donald J. Trump. If I didn’t come along, there would be no NATO right now!!! It would have been in the ash heap of History. Sad, but TRUE!!! President DJT
> The whole problem we are having with criminals in our Country was caused by Sleepy Joe Biden and the Radical Left Thugs that surrounded the Resolution Desk in the Oval Office - And, of course, the Illegal Use of the Auto Pen!!! They should be in jail!
I understand how there would be one or two people who'd hear that and go "Fuck yeah wooo". It's worrisome to me that a group of people could read/see/listen to that and think that sounds good. It's shocking to me that 77.3 million people could read that and think it's sane, good and is how a president should sound like.
We spent the 4-years under Biden capturing foreign investment via high interest rates. Now we are trapping them here via poor conversion rates. In a geopolitical, macro-economic sense we are "Elon Musking". Overpromise and under deliver. Take their money by selling them on a dream and then string them along with promises of future results. We have their money and they have "Fully Self Driving" lane-merge warnings.
It is really disturbing to see that most Republican legislators are still not speaking up openly against the Trump administration. That makes them complicit in everything that’s going on - the arrest of US citizens in unconstitutional raids, the illegal tariffs that are taxing all of us, the threats of invasions against other countries, the grift that is adding billions to the Trump family’s wealth, the push to denaturalize legal immigrants, the lack of action on climate change, the dangerous changes to vaccine schedules for children - all of that and more.
Almost all of these, would on their own, have been grounds for impeachment in the past. It shows how far this extremism has come. If Trump is not impeached, which will require a simple majority in the house and 2/3rds in the Senate, I fear he will continue his mental spiral and potentially do something far more deadly like using a nuke. And I am not being hyperbolic; I genuinely fear the next few escalations in his behavior could be far far worse.
Thanks everyone who voted for this! I really appreciate you!
I'm no longer adding to my VOO holdings—I guess I'm all in on VXUS going forward.
If you live in America, are banking with an American bank, and hold your investments denominated in dollars I'm not sure that just shifting your investments to other global equities would really get you the outcome you want if your goal is to hedge against this specific risk. Besides if this really is the trade war to end all trade wars, the world losing one of the largest markets (the U.S.) is going to depress the entire global economy. I assume if you're even considering VXUS you're not close to retirement so wouldn't the better strategy be to just keep adding to VOO?
I believe that TD's US presence is still a subsidiary of the main Canadian corporation - and there are some banks that will explicitly offer offshore non-US currency accounts. That is a good point to raise though since most banks may offer holdings in overseas funds but if they're managed domestically they'd likely be subject to the same currency shocks and your account may still read well on paper but be effectively unreachable.
I am retired but I have not sold all my stocks and moved to bonds. Even if you use the "rule of 100" I should still have around 40% of my portfolio in stocks.
But to your point, I am certain that I am not going to profit from this fuckery. (Although, hilariously I bought silver a decade ago to teach my daughters about investing—and they each purchased a once or two from me. Of course it turned out to be a local maxima and they grow up, went to college—watching their investment sink all the while. Perhaps they did learn a valuable lesson in investing.)
No, I'm just doing damage control.
I had asked a month or so back as to where the "safe harbors" were during the Great Depression. My impression (and the responses did nothing to contradict this) were that there were no safe harbors—as perhaps there may not be any in some dystopian future we may or may not be headed for.
"Hold, don't sell during the panic," is all anyone could offer. (And so too holding those silver coins until now might also have been a valuable lesson for my daughters?)
> where the "safe harbors" were during the Great Depression [...] were that there were no safe harbors
Surely economy and the world economy operates in a completely different way now than it did back them, if not in the US, the very least in the rest of the world? But that's just my intuition, maybe things are more similar than they are different in reality?
> Of course it turned out to be a local maxima
Not to pour salt into your wounds (sorry), suppose your daughters were born 1980-1990 sometime, you really managed to hit exactly the stagnation phase it seems, that sucks but probably true what you say, still had a lesson in there :) I got curious and maybe others are too, especially if you don't usually look at price of commodities so here: https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-10...
Ha ha, yeah, must have been 2011 when we bought into silver.
What other hedges are there? Gold and silver I am guessing. Anything else to avoid dependency on the US stock market and exposure to the US Dollar? It feels like these assets have nowhere to go but down.
I am genuinely worried that my life savings will be destroyed by high inflation and the decreasing value of the dollar. This is the 3rd major market "correction" in my career and it looks like it will be the worst. Trump is doing so much economic damage to America... the outcomes are unthinkable for working people. I have trouble imagining what life will be like on the other side of this period of financial chaos.
The reality I have come to believe: if it goes down, we all go down. I get worrying about how to protect your life savings, I was worrying too. Now I just accept that we'll all be in the bread lines. Not that there's any comfort in that really, but that it might simply be an inevitability.
Flagged?
And un-vouchable? Slightly "panicky" title and I'd understand US investors might not want to stoke that particular fire.
I think you can only vouch for dead posts???
Carney's speech at Davos is extremely telling: https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?si=Ct_1GIQe4Orm0wGU
who would have thought that America's closest geographic and cultural ally would feel the need to ditch that relationship. Wild times.
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say Canada ditched the relationship, given that the US imposed massive tariffs and threatened to invade Canada.
fair point, forced to break off ties
If you really dive into Canada's behavior since the Bush administration it's plainly obvious that they have not been a good ally. They have the hubris of the United States with the economy of Mexico. I don't agree with Trump's rhetoric and think his handling of the situation has been antagonistic and counter-productive. But his grievances are legitimate. Canada has been actively undermining the United State's attempts to contain/separate from China. They are using the opportunity to enhance their own economy at the expense of the American people. The historic nature of the relationship between Canada and America has allowed for much of it to stay under the radar. I don't think Canada would be in my top-10 allies list though. I would be much more concerned about losing Japan, South Korea, Mexico or Israel. Canada is what I would have described in high school as a "fake friend".
This comment is 10 sentences long but lists not a single, specific example of Canada being a poor ally.
The only example I can think of is Canada arresting Meng Wanzhou when the US asked, and not backing down in the face of significant Chinese threats, souring Chinese relationships significantly.
But that's an example of Canada being a good ally to the US.
What a load of BS, Canada is the best friend the US could ask for.
Remember in 2018 when Canada held Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou under a U.S. extradition request? It tanked Canada/China relations and had trade ramifications Canada is still feeling today.
Being a good ally isn't just doing entirely what the US says the should do. The US needs to coordinate responses to China and work with allies to come to a shared understanding. How the current administration operates is assuming these allied country are fiefdoms. The economic situation in Canada isn't great, and the US could make it stronger, but refuses to.
The same feedback is largely true for most US allies. If you want people to decouple from China, you need to offset and fix the underlying reason they are trading with them.
I have many complaints about Trump's handling of foreign policy. Don't mistake my tone for approval of his approach. He is needlessly aggressive and domineering. We have tried the carrot approach though. Coalition of the willing. By and large I would say our allies are spiritually willing but physically unable to. If we use Canada for example, I don't think they need to jump at every demand, but things like stopping counterfeit sales (Pacific Mall), taking meaningful steps to stop cartel money laundering (Vancouver), actually meeting military commitments (Ukraine promises). A lot of it doesn't get reported because people don't really want to hear it. Like I said, Trump is not right in his handling of these issues, but Canada allows them to fester because its in their interest.
That's pretty vague compared to concrete good ally behaviour like the arrest of Meng Wanzhou.
> They are using the opportunity to enhance their own economy at the expense of the American people.
I mean, isn't that what the country is for? If the country did actions not for it's own citizens and residents, what kind of country are you?
Who is the person who is doing the introduction, and why is he rubbing his hands/fingers together like a stereotypical comic book villain?
Good? The sooner we see consequences for this ridiculous behavior the better.
Related:
De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance?
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46693346
Can't wait to hear how this is Biden's fault in a semi-coherent rant from the WH...
Why do you think there would be any traces of consistency?
Now on Truth Social, Trump is saying that NATO is the enemy, not Russia, not China.
Well, now it makes sense why Putin has that picture of Trump.
Verbatim quotes, ~2 hours ago:
> No single person, or President, has done more for NATO than President Donald J. Trump. If I didn’t come along, there would be no NATO right now!!! It would have been in the ash heap of History. Sad, but TRUE!!! President DJT
> The whole problem we are having with criminals in our Country was caused by Sleepy Joe Biden and the Radical Left Thugs that surrounded the Resolution Desk in the Oval Office - And, of course, the Illegal Use of the Auto Pen!!! They should be in jail!
I understand how there would be one or two people who'd hear that and go "Fuck yeah wooo". It's worrisome to me that a group of people could read/see/listen to that and think that sounds good. It's shocking to me that 77.3 million people could read that and think it's sane, good and is how a president should sound like.
The good thing is that these statements should absolutely be read in the inverse by the other natios.
US is declaring itself their enemy. Other NATO countries should treat it accordingly.
We've always been at war with NATO. It's the "Eur" part of "eurasia", after all.
We spent the 4-years under Biden capturing foreign investment via high interest rates. Now we are trapping them here via poor conversion rates. In a geopolitical, macro-economic sense we are "Elon Musking". Overpromise and under deliver. Take their money by selling them on a dream and then string them along with promises of future results. We have their money and they have "Fully Self Driving" lane-merge warnings.
It is really disturbing to see that most Republican legislators are still not speaking up openly against the Trump administration. That makes them complicit in everything that’s going on - the arrest of US citizens in unconstitutional raids, the illegal tariffs that are taxing all of us, the threats of invasions against other countries, the grift that is adding billions to the Trump family’s wealth, the push to denaturalize legal immigrants, the lack of action on climate change, the dangerous changes to vaccine schedules for children - all of that and more.
Almost all of these, would on their own, have been grounds for impeachment in the past. It shows how far this extremism has come. If Trump is not impeached, which will require a simple majority in the house and 2/3rds in the Senate, I fear he will continue his mental spiral and potentially do something far more deadly like using a nuke. And I am not being hyperbolic; I genuinely fear the next few escalations in his behavior could be far far worse.
Even with all this Trump as 39% approval rating. This is why Republican legislators are staying quiet.
Yep, he's still slightly more popular than he was at this point during his first term.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-sil...
> It is really disturbing to see that most Republican legislators are still not speaking up openly against the Trump administration.
Take a look at the voter base: There’s a hubris of invincibility and jingoism in the air. Even among typical moderates. Rome can never fall!
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